"every single trader out there seems to make the same mistake over and over again. their position size is probably two to ten times more than it should be." martin shkreli built a kelly criterion simulator to test exactly this. "most folks don't actually have an edge when they trade. but if they did, they're trading as if they had a 4x or 5x kelly edge." "if you run the simulator, you will go to zero each time." "even with a 60/40 edge on every trade you make, you'll go bust if you overbet." "and who has a 60/40 edge in the stock market? nobody has a 60/40 edge." even a real edge, sized wrong, still ends at zero. sizing is too commonly the part I see every trader consider second or third.

Early days, but this is what kelly-optimal BTC looks like: - BTC +11.94% - cbBTC-Jr + 16.31% Note the down and sideways periods in the early part of the series. You can just hold through it. By design it's backtested (for positive drift assets) st — the marginal benefit of holding through rallies >> marginal cost of holding it through down-swings. @2FactorFinance @base #notfinancialadvice

Nicely done!

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