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Buy and hold is not a process... Buy and hold is a recipe to give back half or more of what you have earned over the last 5-10 years. Have a process and understand risk. You can make back money but not time.
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RT @LanceRoberts: 9-25-26 From TINA To TIGA: 5% Treasuries Are Changing Asset Allocation
w/ @michaellebowitz
Investors are being forced t…
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A collapsing yen, heavy import dependence, and the developed world's biggest debt load — Japan has every ingredient for runaway inflation and 1.9% CPI to show for it. The real story isn't that debt doesn't matter. It's that it works the opposite way most people think. realinvestmentadvice.com/res…
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RT @LanceRoberts: Are Bonds the Markets' next opportunity?
@michaellebowitz and I look at what current bond-market conditions may be signal…
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A collapsing yen, heavy import dependence, and the developed world's biggest debt load — Japan has every ingredient for runaway inflation and 1.9% CPI to show for it. The real story isn't that debt doesn't matter. It's that it works the opposite way most people think.
realinvestmentadvice.com/res…
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A collapsing yen, heavy import dependence, and the developed world's biggest debt load — Japan has every ingredient for runaway inflation and 1.9% CPI to show for it. The real story isn't that debt doesn't matter. It's that it works the opposite way most people think. realinvestmentadvice.com/res…
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Rotation coming? Got Utilities? Might also be a signal bond yields are peaking, at least temporarily.
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Michael Lebowitz, CFA retweeted
There has been lots of talk over the last couple of years about marginal bond buyers becoming more price sensitive. When does the marginal equity buyer become price sensitive?
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Michael Lebowitz, CFA retweeted
For the first time since the Summary of Economic Projections started being published, there are zero members who see downside risks to GDP growth
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Michael Lebowitz, CFA retweeted
Hands down one of the greatest dark memes I’ve seen in my entire career.
I know folks on the commodity desk already knows how this math works, but just for the broader timeline and the math-challenged folks out there...
The Taylor Rule is traditionally used to calculate a central bank’s optimal policy rate: i = r* + p* + 1.5(p - p*) + 0.5(y - y*)
(i = nominal rate, r* = neutral rate, p* = 2% target, p - p* = inflation gap, y - y* = output gap).
Dr. Ghalibaf basically jammed two brand new variables into this classic framework, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb.
He's flexing that global CPI and terminal rates are dictated by their maritime choke points...
Honestly crown the man Meme King already. And the wild part? He’s not even lying. Does today's Fed decision even matter in the grand scheme?
Give it a few days, and we’ll all be recalibrating the next FOMC print purely around energy prices—which ironically are being priced by Tehran and the Houthis.
The guy isn't wrong. Welcome to the new macro regime.
#oott #iran
Straits Taylor Rule:
i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*) + α(SOH−SOH*) + β(BEM−BEM*), α,β > 0
Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel :)
You can’t 25bp a chokepoint and r* isn’t neutral. It’s SOH risk premium, and We set it.
Stay unanchored !
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The Fed raises Fed Funds projections by .50% over the next two years, yet its inflation forecast is higher by .10%. Guess they don't have much confidence that higher rates will bring inflation to target. Tells me this is about the bond market, not primarily inflation, as they try to sell us.
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RT @LanceRoberts: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years.
@michaellebowitz and I examine the Fed's inf…
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Hours before the Fed's September decision, the 10-year just topped 5% and mortgage rates are near 7% — real tightening the FOMC didn't vote for. But long and short rates hit the economy through different channels on different timelines, and the case for a hike is weaker than it looks: the inflation the Fed would be fighting is largely an Iran-driven energy shock that Fed Funds can't touch, while the long end is already doing real growth-restraining work. New piece on why hiking into this could be a mistake the Fed ends up walking back. realinvestmentadvice.com/res…
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Just thinking out loud... What if the Fed decides it wants to instantly gain inflation-fighting credibility and hikes 50 basis points this afternoon?
The yield curve flattens like a pancake?
Stocks weaker at first but slowly recover?
Strong $ and weak precious metals?
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Heading into the September 16 FOMC meeting, we put the case for a rate hike and the case for a hold on trial, prosecution and defense, complete with Fed member quotes, revision-riddled jobs data, and our own labor and inflation trend models. Who wins? Read the case and decide before we render our verdict. realinvestmentadvice.com/res…
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