Tactical Macro Specialists. For more info on investor positioning, tactical asset allocation recommendations or to trial the research, email sales@vanda.com
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A few key events that Vanda is watching over the coming months.
With positioning broadly neutral, policy and growth surprises could become increasingly important for the next market move.
📩 Contact sales@vanda.com to access the full research.
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Is the bond sell-off what it seems?
Global yields are pushing higher, Vanda’s CTA positioning data shows net shorts in G10 rates have reached a new record.
What could shift the picture from here?
Read more in our blog: vanda.com/insights/the-bond-…
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US equity positioning has moved sideways lately.
In our latest Positioning Update, @VPatelFX lifts the lid on what's holding back the next move.
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The 2M rolling correlation between US equity positioning and US 10Y yields sits at -0.5.
Attempts to re-risk are being held back by the sell-off in bonds.
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One of the biggest Jackson Hole rate moves since 1989, but equities barely reacted.
Vanda sees a rocky September before a stronger October and November.
That's the setup Vanda is watching.
Request Access: vanda.com/contact-us
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Markets will look to Warsh at Jackson Hole for a September rate signal.
But the bigger question is how the Fed will decide what comes next.
Inflation. AI capex. Financial conditions. The reaction function.
4 things investors should watch: vanda.com/insights/jackson-h…
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Nvidia cleared the earnings hurdle. Vanda’s positioning call was directionally right.
The overnight move beat what options had priced, while semiconductor positioning remains far from crowded.
The next test for the AI trade? Rates.
vanda.com/insights/nvidia-be…
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Vanda Research retweeted
Vanda's @jnordvig talks why the dollar's weakening trend could intensify
@vandaresearch
cnb.cx/4gAgufI
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Retail flows broadened Thursday: Consumer Discretionary flipped to net buying, while Communication Services strengthened.
GOOG, GOOGL, NFLX & CSCO replaced AAPL, SPCX & NVDA among the leaders, drawing +$186.5m over 5 days.
Sector concentration fell. Retail is spreading out.
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Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ Looks like a pretty well-behaved US CPI report in line with historical norms since 2000. If anything, breadth (48% of basket >2.5% annualised infl) + NSA core CPI MoM below median readings for July. Hard to argue for a hike on another soft-ish inflation print (+ soft NFP) $USD
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The TACO trade is losing its bite!
Cross-asset markets aren’t buying the TACO trade anymore.
As US–Iran tensions rumble on, markets appear to be growing numb to Trump’s narrative and reacting less to each apparent de-escalation.
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Retail investors are still selling US single stocks, but they’re not completely MIA.
They're committed to tech, mainly via ETFs. This is a sign that the habits of retail investors may be changing.
This is less about cutting exposure, and more about changing investment patterns.
ALT VandaTrack Single Stocks Retail Market Flow chart - 06.08.2026
ALT VandaTrack ETF Retail Market Flow chart - 06.08.2026
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Vanda Research retweeted
🔴Retail investors are losing faith in buying Nvidia's dips:
On Monday, July 27th, retail investors bought just $108 million of Nvidia, $NVDA, after the stock fell, according to Vanda Research.
This marked the 3rd-weakest dip-buying response among the 25 trading sessions since January 2025 in which Nvidia declined -4% or more in a single day.
By comparison, the median retail purchase across all such sessions was +$283 million, more than 2.5x higher.
Notably, the 3 weakest dip-buying responses in the entire dataset have all occurred in 2026.
Retail investors are no longer rushing to buy every Nvidia pullback.
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Vanda Research retweeted
⚠️ Waller put a lot of emphasis on inflation breadth. June CPI was undoubtedly soft from a breadth perspective - only 43% of the basket running above 2.5% annualised inflation (lowest since Feb '25). 47% of the basket saw -ve %MoM prices... the most since Aug 2024. Doves win $USD
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Everyone is watching NVDA earnings. Few are looking at the flow setup behind it. Our data shows retail has stepped back from single stock buying while institutions are holding one of the biggest NVDA call positions since 2022. This pattern often comes before major turning points.
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We said on Wednesday the shutdown wouldn’t clear the macro fog.
Now it’s confirmed: no October CPI, delayed labour data, and markets reassessing cuts.
In moments like this, having a clear framework matters. That’s what Vanda provides.
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Our whitepaper breaks down the signals behind market conviction: Positioning, Policy & Growth.
Get it first: sales@vanda.com
#VandaResearch #Macro #Positioning
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US equities didn’t fall because of a headline or a single bank charge-off.
They fell because positioning is crowded. When markets are this stretched, small shocks feel big.
Our models show room for more unwind systematic selling likely ramps into month-end.
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