Some thoughts as a crypto VC:
1. This Q1 number (5 pre-seed deals) needs a big asterisk. People don't want to announce it now, they hold the news for better timing. So the directional read is probably right, but the drop-off looks more dramatic than it actually is.
2. That said, the underlying trend is real and for a few reasons worth unpacking. Secondary has been rough post Q4 '25, and secondary is historically the leading indicator for primary, and crypto just makes this more extreme, as in crypto, the fundraising announcement itself is a GTM tool to make your way toward TGE.
But that playbook has died. So now teams are just sitting on the news, waiting for better conditions to amplify it.
3. Also from what I've heard, a lot of funds have genuinely slowed primary and rotated toward liquid. The logic being: liquid deals come with lighter vesting and even at high valuations, the risk/reward is more legible and markable. Hard to argue against that when primary deals are still priced as if a token premium exists.
4. The longer-tail issue is we're still unwinding the 2021-2022 hangover. A lot of GPs raised mega funds and still haven't found enough quality targets to deploy — which is part of why projects over the last 1.5 years raised way more than they needed at jacked valuations. This is now still correcting, slowly and painfully.
5. My bet is still that market will eventually settle around the 3 things in crypto with real PMF:
Bitcoin, payment rails, and speculation infrastructure.
Everything else is going to have a tough time justifying the ask.
Pre-seed crypto deals have fallen off a cliff — by quarter:
Q4 ’24: 345
Q1 ’25: 117
Q2 ’25: 104
Q3 ’25: 55
Q4 ’25: 31
Q1 ’26: 5
source: the block