Dustin Poirier (+112) vs. Max Holloway (-135)
Fight Breakdown Written by @Dadhalloffamer
The indoor temperature is expected to reach four hundred degrees. Each fan in attendance will receive flame-retardant (not an insensitive slur) suits and a pair of gasoline boots – stadium giveaways sponsored by Kingsford. Rumors are swirling online that Mark Coleman, one of the Godfathers of Ground & Pound, will be front row and chest naked, wearing only boardshorts and flip flops. Also expected to be in attendance is the star of the new AI-produced Ghost Rider Marvel film, Paul Walker. Detractors (haters if you want to be a Richard about it) of the event are raising concerns about the glorification of immolation. Such a display might begin a disturbing trend among impressionable youth - young boys and girls with hopes and dreams of becoming the next Dustin Poirier or Max Holloway.
Hell in an Octagon: Although the title isn’t official, it is apt and has been adopted by the masses across all social media platforms. Who set the world on fire? Dustin and Max set the world on fire. This fight is a rare rubber match in which one fighter has won the previous two scraps. Yet everybody wants it like the last laugh. The hope is that, after the fight, win or lose, Dustin Poirier will postpone his impending retirement and turn the BMF title fight into a seven-fight series. It’s impossible to imagine what a possible fight seven, winner takes all, bout would look like.
Dustin Poirier is responsible for twenty-five percent of Max Holloway’s career losses. Poirier is only one of two men to ever finish Max. And Dustin is the only man to ever force Max to say, “Maté!" He submitted Max in 2012, Max’s UFC debut, with an arm-triangle. Had the second meeting in 2019 been six rounds instead of five, Max might have pulled off the comeback after Dustin wobbled him multiple times early in the fight. The trilogy will be concluded in Piorier’s hometown, NOLA. I better see Lil Weezy, and I ain’t talking Lizzo after standing up, wearing a Herb Jones Mardi Gras jersey, escorting Poirier to the cage.
The Last KO. Someday, they will make a ten-part docuseries on Dustin Poirier’s last walk to the Octagon. He has been one of the lightweight division’s most prominent ass-kickers since 2011. But even after sixteen years, Poirier still has thermite in his hands. His hands can’t make it through TSA. The bomb sniffing dogs go ape shit when they smell Poirier coming. Poirier’s trademark low hand position is the secret behind his power. He swings from his waist, and the power it generates is like swinging kettlebells. Dustin is a right-handed Southpaw who keeps his power hand in the front, closest to the target. I still have nightmares about the right hand he landed on Benoit St. Denis. Not the one that dropped St. Denis, but the follow-up. That shit was like euthanizing a horse after suffering a broken leg in the Kentucky Derby. Yo! Hit that 50 Cent “So Disrespectful!” That follow-up was so so so disrespectful.
Poirier is coming into this after one of his best career performances. It came in a loss to the former Champ, Islam Makhachev. Poirier survived terrible positions early in the fight and found success going to the body on the feet late. In his desperation to score a finish, Poirier gave up his back and was submitted in the fourth round. It was one of the rare times we had ever seen Makhachev take heavy damage. If that Poirier shows up against Max, it will be Mardi Gras in the streets of NOLA after the fight.
But Max is only a year removed from the best performance of his career. Life hasn’t been the same since UFC 300. My kid got sent home from school last year because he pointed to the floor when the lunch lady refused to give him an extra French toast stick. A couple of days after the fight, a dude in a wheelchair pointed to the bathroom floor when I came out of the handicap stall with two working legs. I even had a dog point to the ground on me. When I squared up with that MF, the owner intervened, swearing that it was a bird dog, and it was just alerting him. Regardless, I’ve had to have my head on a swivel since UFC 300.
I used to think Max lacked power, especially at lightweight. Then he knocked out Justin Gaethje. The NFL has “The Catch,” The NBA has “The Shot,” and now the UFC has “The Punch.” If Dan Ige needed a wheelbarrow to carry his Randy Marsh-sized balls after stepping in against Diego Lopes on just a few hours' notice, Max needed Ruble and Crew to haul his after UFC 300. Max seemed to have hit his power arc after knocking out the Korean Zombie and Justin Gaethje in back-to-back fights. But he has always been known for his acupuncture hands. He is an automatic one hundred significant strikes landed just stepping into the cage. Max leaves opponents looking like Hellraiser after fights. Looking like life-size voodoo dolls. Real Voodoo Dolls. Max will lump you up real quick and leave you looking like someone threw up on you in Braille. Max’s best weapon is volume. He holds the record for most significant strikes landed in a fight (445) against Calvin Kattar and averages over seven SLpM.
The Ilia fight might turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Max finally got some sleep. He had been suffering from insomnia for fifteen years. Nobody could put Max to sleep. He hadn’t even been officially knocked down until the Topuria fight. And after what Ilia did to Charles Oliveira, Max might have gotten off easy by comparison. The key for Max against Poirier will be getting off to a fast start. Max is the type of fighter who gets stronger as the fight progresses. But in their second fight, Poirier got out to a lead that Max couldn’t overcome.
Fantasy-wise, this is a dream matchup. Three weeks ago, Brandon Royval and Joshua Van combined to land over four hundred significant strikes in a three-round fight. Barring an early stoppage, Max and Dustin could eclipse those numbers. Max is the early (-125) favorite, and Poirier is the (+105) live-ass dog. Poirier has already won this fight. Twice. And he’s coming in off a classic performance against Makhachev. Max is coming in off his first career KO loss. Poirier’s power was a problem for Max in the second fight. I don’t think that will change. Poirier just hits differently. The play for this one is a decision. I’m actually rooting against a finish. I want to see these guys bang for five rounds. I think a finish would slightly favor Poirier. But after the Gaethje fight, I’m not counting out Max’s power.
Last week... The main event winning streak ended when Jason Herzog waved off Tallison Teixeira after Teixeira got back to his feet. Why the fook wait until he stood up to stop it? And Free Wonderboy! Anywho, I have no idea who will win this fight. The deciding factor is Poirier’s home-field advantage and fighting in his hometown in his final fight. One last time: Dustin Poirier via decision. Put it on wax.
Props
Poirier: TKO/KO (+330) Sub (+1200) Dec (+350)
Holloway: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2000) Dec (+150)
Winner: Dustin Poirier | Method: Decision