Chinese industrial firms receive substantially more government support than their advanced-economy peers. Source: Jeremie Peloso, @bcaresearch, “China Shock 2.0: Europe Strikes Back” (September 2026)

The 10-year yield is now more than one-sigma cheap, based on Alpine Macro’s model. Source: @RealAlpineMacro

Inflation pressures are being driven by three largely temporary supply shocks—tariffs, energy, and the AI buildout—with tariff pass-through already past its peak and the other pressures expected to ease in 2027, according to @RealAlpineMacro.

Despite rising yields, Japan’s net interest payments as a share of GDP are projected to remain among the lowest in the OECD in 2027. Source: Japan Economy Watch richardkatz.substack.com/p/f…

🇺🇸 The current market pricing implies one of the shallowest tightening cycles in history. thedailyshot.com/2026/09/22/…

Today’s Daily Shot looks at historical Fed tightening cycles since the mid-1960s, divided into two groups: those followed by soft landings and those followed by recessions. Equity performance, after subtracting cash returns, is subdued on average in the early stages of tightening. However, returns eventually diverge sharply, with recessionary outcomes producing substantially weaker returns than soft landings. thedailyshot.com/2026/09/22/…

Today's Daily Shot looks at historical Fed tightening cycles since the mid-1960s, divided into two groups: those followed by soft landings and those followed by recessions. Equity performance, after subtracting cash returns, is subdued on average in the early stages of tightening. However, returns eventually diverge sharply, with recessionary outcomes producing substantially weaker returns than soft landings. thedailyshot.com/2026/09/22/…

🇺🇸 US high-frequency dashboard, composed of daily and weekly economic indicators (updated as of Sept. 18, 2026). #economy

Greece's financial-sector recovery has included a sharp decline in banks' nonperforming loans, with STOXX restoring Greece to Developed Market status. @markets bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

With yields moving higher, the longer-term return outlook has improved. This is because bond returns closely track their starting yields over the long run, whether an investor holds the bonds to maturity or rolls them periodically. Source: @AugurInfinity

Do rising yields hurt stocks? This chart focuses exclusively on periods when yields were rising and further divides them based on whether growth was strengthening or weakening. The distinction is clear: rising yields were a meaningful headwind for stocks when accompanied by weakening growth. Source: @AugurInfinity

Nearly 90% of Germans support membership in Europe's common currency and market, presenting a constraint on the AfD's euroskeptic platform. Source: @mgertken, @bcaresearch, "Germany Is Not Reliving 1933" (September 2026)

🇺🇸 Employment in the information sector has steadily declined over the past four years.

🇺🇸 US high-frequency dashboard, composed of daily and weekly economic indicators (updated as of Sept. 4, 2026).

Europe’s smallest firms face implied costs of capital above 60%, versus roughly 40% for US peers, constraining their capacity to finance and scale profitable growth. Source: Center for Economic Policy Research via @SnippetFinance

The technology sector is now more capital-intensive than the mining sector. Source: @TaviCosta

80% of Daily Shot readers believe AI-related stocks are in a bubble, with a growing share expecting the bubble to be sustained for at least the next 12 months. Source: The Daily Shot

AI-related financing has accounted for essentially all growth in global capital-markets issuance. Source: iCapital Investment Strategy Group icapital.com/insights/invest…

🇺🇸 Data center construction spending continues to surge and has now surpassed the peak in spending on general office construction.

AI-related investment gains increasingly flatter hyperscaler earnings, with “other income” rising to 54% of pretax income. Excluding other income, the adjusted profit margins are closer to 20%. Source: @felixavp, @bcaresearch