Britain’s leading independent economic research institute
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NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have?
📊@JCribbEcon, @Heidi_Karj and @HelenMiller_IFS' new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock:
ALT Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Huge improvement to how the triple lock will work from 2030. (Great explainer from my @TheIFS colleagues here.)
V. important for the long run. But likely to be many years before it saves enough to fund much extra social care spending. That will need more money from elsewhere.
NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have?
📊@JCribbEcon, @Heidi_Karj and @HelenMiller_IFS' new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock:
ALT Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
This is the chart the explains the change to the triple lock - rather than a ratchet effect it has a glide path back to average earnings. Much more sensible
NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have?
📊@JCribbEcon, @Heidi_Karj and @HelenMiller_IFS' new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock:
ALT Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
This is the key difference between the old and the new triple lock:
While the new triple lock generates a temporary period in which state pensions are higher rel. to average earnings, it does not permanently ratchet up the level of the state pension like the old triple lock.
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Key graph is this. This shows an illustrative 10-year period: inflation is always 2%. At the beginning of the period, average earnings, shown by the green line, are growing at 4% per year. In years 4, 5 and 6, earnings growth falls to only 1% (i.e. below inflation)
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Everyone wondering how new triple lock works -- here's the answer :
NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have?
📊@JCribbEcon, @Heidi_Karj and @HelenMiller_IFS' new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock:
ALT Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Working as fast as we possibly could, here's the explainer about the PM's (generally commendable) reforms to the triple lock.
NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have?
📊@JCribbEcon, @Heidi_Karj and @HelenMiller_IFS' new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock:
ALT Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
I've spent 15 years thinking about the triple lock @TheIFS. Given what the PM said, here's how the reformed triple lock will work. Thread incoming.
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NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have?
📊@JCribbEcon, @Heidi_Karj and @HelenMiller_IFS' new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock:
ALT Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.
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"The Prime Minister should be commended for grasping the nettle and helping to put the state pension system on a more secure and sustainable footing." – @JCribbEcon
📊 Read the comment here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how-will…
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
For years, we at the IFS have been calling for the government to find a better way to increase the state pension than the triple lock.
The old triple lock is not a good way to achieve any policy goal. Most importantly, it is both expensive and unpredictable.
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
The new, reformed triple lock from 2030–31 is not perfect, but it is a substantial improvement on the status quo.
The PM should be commended for grasping the nettle and helping to put the state pension system on a more secure and sustainable footing.
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Feeling thrilled to have the wonderful @JCribbEcon in @TheIFS building - he lives and breathes pensions. New annoucenment is very close to the policy he's recommended - he's got an explainer coming in 5 mins. Watch this space
Very very close but not *quite*- we've got the analysis of the change coming very soon. Along with a new chart.
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How much would the new reformed triple lock announced by Andy Burnham this afternoon save compared to the old system?
📺 @HelenMiller_IFS explains on @BBCPolitics #PoliticsLive:
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
My thoughts on the PM's announcment on the triple lock:
New triple lock much improved but not perfect, and not enough to fund universal social care
ifs.org.uk/articles/new-trip…
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
An absolutely key point here - under the PM's reform NO PENSIONER is going to experience a fall in the value of the state pension. State pensions are still going to rise (at least as fast as inflation), keeping up with earnings. Just not rising quite as quickly as before.
Arguably, reforming the pension triple lock is the first “difficult decision” this government has taken.
Pensions will STILL RISE – but (sounds like) they won't ratchet up in an uncertain & unpredictable way. The latter is good news for the public finances
Well done Andy Burnham
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Very very close but not *quite*- we've got the analysis of the change coming very soon. Along with a new chart.
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"The old triple lock is gone. And the new triple lock still keeps pace with average earnings, but doesn't have the ratchet."
📺 @HelenMiller_IFS interprets the Prime Minister's triple lock announcement in her response to the speech on @BBCPolitics #PoliticsLive:
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“Better reforms were available, but this one is a big improvement. It will not, however, be the answer to funding universal social care.”
⬇️ @JCribbEcon responds to the Prime Minister’s triple lock announcement at this afternoon’s Labour Conference:
ALT Quote from IFS Deputy Director Jonathan Cribb: "It is great news that Andy Burnham has neutered the worst element of the triple lock. Goodbye to the unsustainable ‘ratchet’ effect. State pensions will still rise, but more sustainably. Better reforms were available, but this one is a big improvement. It will not, however, be the answer to funding universal social care."
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"Savings are likely to be relatively small in the first few years, but rise substantially over time. We should not expect this reform to save enough that it could fund universal social care in the next parliament."
➡️ Read the initial response here: ifs.org.uk/articles/new-trip…
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Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Re-listening to the PM's speech on the state pension. It's not a double lock. It's a new triple lock with 3 elements:
CPI inflation;
2.5%;
the amount needed to ensure the state pension keeps up with average earnings growth since the introduction of the new policy.
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