The Victaris Letter | TVL Everything that moves the world. The bigger picture. Monthly briefing ↓
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THE VICTARIS LETTER | TVL
Everything that moves the world.
Macro. Markets. Geopolitical risk.
Breaking developments and the forces behind them.
The bigger picture.
Welcome to TVL.
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U.S. RATES ARE MOVING HIGHER - ACROSS THE CURVE
From 1-year Treasuries to 30-year bonds, yields are rising together.
That raises the cost of money across the system: government borrowing, corporate refinancing, mortgages and the discount rate applied to risk assets.
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THE SIGNAL
Bitcoin continues to show resilience with market structure improving and momentum building.
The key test is whether BTC can sustain its advance. If momentum fades, initial support sits near $85,000, followed by the $81,000–$83,000 zone.
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The Victaris Letter retweeted
1/7
Global liquidity is not simply returning.
The Fed, ECB and BoJ are changing the mechanism.
The constraint remains: funding is not becoming structurally cheap.
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1/7
Global liquidity is not simply returning.
The Fed, ECB and BoJ are changing the mechanism.
The constraint remains: funding is not becoming structurally cheap.
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6/7
The headline can mislead.
A rate cut, an end to QT or ample reserves do not automatically restore cheap global liquidity.
The transmission mechanism matters more than one announcement.
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6/7
The headline can mislead.
A rate cut, an end to QT or ample reserves do not automatically restore cheap global liquidity.
The transmission mechanism matters more than one announcement.
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3/7
The ECB.
Rates and balance-sheet runoff affect more than one channel:
bank lending,
market funding,
risk appetite,
and the cost of capital.
The transmission is broader than the headline rate.
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