they say AI will either take every job or change nothing.
anthropic actually ran the numbers, three scenarios for the us economy by 2030, from boring to the kind where the familiar chart falls off a cliff.
in the harshest one, where ai is fast and gets adopted without thinking:
— knowledge jobs shrink by a fifth, unemployment among office workers hits a depression-level 18%
— and the economy doesn't fall, it swells by a third and speeds up to 15% growth a year
— desk wages drop 11.5%, while people who work with their hands see theirs rise by a third
— and here's the one that matters: out of every dollar, workers now get 45 cents instead of 60. the rest goes to whoever owns the machine
across all three charts it's the same picture. the office line dives. everyone else stays flat.
here's the number worth reading twice: 15 cents of every dollar move from the person to capital in four years. a hundred-year split breaks in a single presidential term.
the takeaway is simple and uncomfortable.
the country gets richer than ever, but the one getting rich isn't the one who works, it's the one who owns what the work is done with.
the growth is real. it just doesn't land in wages.