Investing | Tech, capital, conviction. Independent by design. Every day in the stock market. Fundamental research. NFA.

Here’s a recap of everything I’ve published on Substack so far 👇 0xtechquity.substack.com/ A THREAD 🧵
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$BKNG Booking Holdings ✈️ The company's valuation looks more than reasonable right now. The market is starting to doubt Booking's role as the middleman, worried that new AI agents will start booking trips for us instead. On top of that, hotels have often been annoyed with Booking's power over them. I think it's important to stay cautious here. Booking still has real strengths, but the business will likely face some pressure on pricing power. They could also lose a few partners from their catalog over time. So it's a situation with real uncertainty, and what's easy to underestimate is how the market will price all this in ahead of time. Personally, I prefer to stay on the sidelines for now...
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Hermès $RMS 🐎 P/FCF is now at its lowest level in 10 years 👇 Today: 29.6x 10Y median: 47x For me, the main interest here is simple: this is an easy stock to hold for a very long time. The world is very uncertain because of AI. Many businesses will change a lot. But people will still want a Hermès bag in 20 years. If there's one stock in my portfolio I can hold for 20+ years, it's this one.
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I now have a solid performance on my $TSM position... I still have a target under $380 to increase my position. I feel this company is the safest bet in AI, with a huge industrial moat...
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Almost +10% performance this year! 💪
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$SPGI vs $MCO same duopoly but different valuation 📊 SPGI trades cheaper on almost every metric, but the market keeps paying a premium for Moody's. ➡️ Moody's is more focused on pure ratings, the best part of the business, and has grown faster lately. The market pays for growth and focus, even in a near-identical duopoly...
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There's also something pretty rough with FICO right now. I won't focus on their moat here, I want to talk about their capital allocation 👇 For years, FICO did huge share buybacks, at a crazy high valuation, and they did it by taking on debt. Now the situation is kind of funny: their Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is at an all-time high of 4.27x, and this time the valuation is actually at a really interesting level for buybacks. So what will FICO do now? They need to pay down debt, but also want to buy back as many shares as possible. And rates aren't as low as they used to be either... $FICO
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This is why stock picking is amazing... I wouldn't want to be buying ETFs in this current market. But there are some stocks getting more and more interesting to me 👇 📊 MSCI $MSCI 🌳 Brookfield $BN 🎬 Netflix $NFLX ⭐ S&P Global $SPGI ✈️ Booking $BKNG 🧡 Hermès $RMS 🐜 Rollins $ROL
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If there's one thing you have to admit about Tesla $TSLA it's the cash pile... $43.5B in cash, debt barely moved, net debt negative every year since 2021. That's a huge advantage 💰
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$NKE Nike is a nightmare... Revenue: down 4% 🔴 Profit per share: down 2% 🔴 China: down 26% 🔴 Europe: down 5% 🔴 North America: up only 2% 🟢 The company is also guiding for another bad year ahead: revenue could drop 7-9% more in 2027, and profit will fall even more than that. Nike flooded the market with too many Jordans and lifestyle sneakers for years, so now they're cutting supply on purpose to bring back scarcity and pricing power. Short term pain, hoping for long term brand health... They're also cutting costs and reorganizing to save $2.5B by 2031. ➡️ This is a good example of a brand that lost discipline, vision and is now paying for it. Same pattern we've seen with Disney, and what's starting to happen with McDonald's too. Not the kind of business I like owning...
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Why Muse from $META is bullish 👇 1. Monetizing the transaction itself (a commission on the purchase made through Muse) 2. At the same time, it pushes more money into Meta's ad business. If Muse helps businesses create ads and spend more on Meta, that money flows right back into Meta's main business too. Here's the real power of Muse: it's not just the business side and not just the shopper side, it's both working together.
Deutsche sees Muse reaching ~8% of $META revenue by 2030 with agent commerce fees driving ~75% of upside case. What makes that really interesting is the model assumes only ~0.3% of daily users ever pay and gives no credit for Muse completing purchases through $SHOP and Stripe while helping businesses create and spend more on Meta ads. So Muse can monetize the transaction itself while also feeding more dollars back into Meta’s core ad business,which makes the upside MUCH bigger.
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Are we going to have $ROL hitting 15x P/FCF?
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This is crazy to see so many stocks down more than 20-30%... while the indexes keep breaking records. Current drawdown 🩸 $NFLX -50% $MCD -32% $RMS -54% $APP -63% $ROL -54% $CSU.TO -42% $UBER -32%
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I really like Netflix $NFLX valuation here. Current drawdown is almost at 50% 🩸 Why the market is worried: People think Netflix is growing slower, maybe hitting a ceiling, plus more competition. But Netflix still has good chances ahead: - Ads plan: A cheaper plan with ads brings in price-sensitive users, plus new ad money on top. - Gaming: Netflix is pushing into cloud gaming and mobile games tied to its shows. This can keep people hooked and bring in younger users. - Live events: Sports or comedy shows can bring big ad budgets.
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$FICO is at 15x P/FCF High risk, high reward!
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Techquity retweeted
2 stocks I really like watching these past few months 👇 These companies are incredible compounders, and their valuation compression is pretty similar... MSCI is soon going to join the above 4% FCF yield club, and it might become more and more interesting. What's happening here is all what you want as long term investor 🔥 $MSCI $SPGI
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MSCI $MSCI DPS evolution since 2014 is one of the most beautiful charts on this planet ✨ I love to own this business... a steady compounder following a strong supertrend: more and more people are looking for "passive" ETF investing.
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Muse has now more than 100k ratings and a 4.9 score 🤩 $META
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Amazon P/OCF is around 16 while the 10Y median is more like 22. I feel the company is more and more attractive... Will I buy more shares? I don't think so for the moment because I have too many hyperscalers in my portfolio and want to focus on other companies... This month I want to buy more Brookfield for sure, and TSMC, but I want to be more careful on this one because of the valuation.
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Keep buying more Brookfield $BN 💪
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