All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 planbtc.com
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Just a scenario for the second half of this halving cycle, Apr 2024 - Apr 2028 (no not a prediction, just a scenario, food for thought, you assign the odds):
🔳 $100K in October
🔳 New ATH (>$126K) before Christmas
🔳 2027 - 2028: >$232K (4x $58K bottom)
What do you think?
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⚠️Stop blaming influencers for your investment results!
That’s not analysis. That’s outsourcing responsibility.
Do this instead:
- Follow bulls AND bears
- Steal their reasoning
- Ignore their certainty
- Assign your own odds (60/40, 70/30, whatever)
- Size the trade yourself
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BTC $87K is now sitting above every major realized price:
• Realized price: $53K
• 155-day realized: $72K
• 2-year realized: $86K
A drop below $53K this cycle is off the table IMO. The “must retest realized price like every prior bear” thesis just lost its last clean setup.
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Last time you’ll see Bitcoin under $100k?
Look at the October column.
Uptober is loading.🎃📈
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Bitcoin ($81k) closed above 50-week MA ($79k).
Next target: 100-week MA ($89k) 🚀
Interactive chart: charts.blockhorizon.io/chart…
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🟦Now we wait until bitcoin difficulty goes up ..
Interactive difficulty chart: charts.blockhorizon.io/chart…
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Bitcoin left the 200-week moving average again.
BTC price: $77k
200WMA: $65k
🔵Every cycle bottom happened when the rainbow turned blue. The people who bought the last three times this happened made generational wealth.
Interactive chart👉charts.blockhorizon.io/chart…
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$77k bitcoin is squeezed between two giant walls:
🟠 1M BTC sitting at $62–65k
🔵 1M BTC sitting at $84–87k
Which way does it break $65k or $84k?
Live interactive version of this chart 100% free (full history, daily updates, alerts, CSV/XLS/JSON data):
charts.blockhorizon.io/chart…
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You used to pay $1,000-$10,000/y for bitcoin metrics.
That era just ended.
BlockHorizon opened the full stack, 100% free:
✅ 100+ charts (MVRV, NUPL, Realized, S2F)
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👉 charts.blockhorizon.io/dashb…
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One of my first tweets, 2018, pre-S2F, most people thought bitcoin was like the Tulip Bubble ...
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Bitcoin just ran $58K → $78K.
Was July 1 the bear-market bottom?
60%
$58K was the bottom
40%
Lower low still ahead
9,766 votes • Final results
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Bitcoin closed August at $78,571
- Above 200 week MA $65k
- Above 5 month (STH) realized price $72k
- All realized prices are increasing again
- Bitcoin in profit 72% (up from 50%)
- Monthly RSI 51 (up from 41)
IMO the bottom is behind us.
I expect higher prices from here.
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✅Bitcoin in profit > 70% (color overlay in this chat)
✅BTC > 200 week moving average (black line)
✅RSI > 50 (trend is up)
✅QE restarted
Feels like the bear is dead and bulls are in charge🚀
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Most people stare at Bitcoin charts.
Stock-to-Flow models scarcity.
Here are the 10 highest-value S2F insights, the ones that actually change how you think about money.
Thread 🧵
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9) Bitcoin behaves like a monetary black hole.
As S2F rises and adoption grows, it competes with, and can siphon premium from, gold, real estate, and other stores of value. This has consequences for inflation hedging, capital allocation, and traditional finance.
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