Can a party with just 9% of the vote decide who rules Uttar Pradesh? The BSP may have lost its electoral dominance, but it hasn't necessarily lost its political relevance. From influencing margins in hundreds of constituencies to shifting the electoral advantage between the BJP and SP, Mayawati's party continues to complicate UP's political arithmetic. As Uttar Pradesh heads towards the 2027 Assembly elections, one question becomes increasingly important: Is the BSP a declining political force, or the kingmaker nobody can afford to ignore? Explore Amitabh Tiwari's analysis of BSP's electoral decline, its changing voter base and the outsized impact its remaining votes could have on the 2027 contest. Read the full analysis on BasisPoint Insight. basispointinsight.com/Story/… @politicalbaaba #UttarPradesh #BSP #Mayawati #UPPolitics #Elections2027 #IndianPolitics

Wall Street's AI bubble could burst. But will Dalal Street be ready for the fallout? As global investors question the AI boom, money is flowing back into Indian equities. Suddenly, India is being portrayed as the market that could benefit from America's AI troubles. But there's a catch. What if the real threat to Indian markets isn't AI at all, but something much closer to home? Expensive crude oil, volatile foreign investor flows and stretched valuations could make India's rally far more fragile than it appears. And if the AI bubble does burst, global money might flee to the safety of US Treasury bonds rather than find its way to Indian stocks. Is India really the next big investment destination, or are investors betting on the wrong safe haven? Vivek Kaul examines why the AI boom's troubles could have consequences far beyond Silicon Valley. Read the full story. basispointinsight.com/Story/… @kaul_vivek #AI #IndianStockMarket #DalalStreet #GlobalMarkets #FIIs #CrudeOil #BasisPointInsight

Trump’s electoral defeat may have weakened his political position, but could it make global markets more vulnerable to another oil shock? With the Iran conflict unresolved and the Democrats set to take control of both chambers of Congress in January, the weeks ahead could prove critical. A weakened Trump may have greater incentives to pursue a military victory before congressional opposition becomes stronger. But another offensive could deepen the conflict rather than bring it to a close. The consequences for financial markets could be significant. From Brent crude potentially climbing to $108–120 a barrel to renewed inflationary pressures, volatile bond yields and a weaker rupee, another escalation could complicate the outlook for central banks, businesses and investors. For India, the risks are particularly pronounced. Higher crude prices, a stronger dollar and rising import costs could put pressure on inflation, corporate earnings, government bond yields and the rupee. Will Trump's political setback push him towards diplomacy, or make another military escalation more likely? And what would either outcome mean for global markets? Read the full analysis by Yield Scribe on BasisPoint Insight. basispointinsight.com/Story/… #GlobalMarkets #Trump #Iran #CrudeOil #IndianEconomy #Geopolitics #Inflation #BasisPointInsight

The US mid-term election was one of the most decisive rejections of a sitting American president in modern times. For India, the message is sobering. The emerging thinking in Washington DC sees the US as a “security enabler” rather than a security provider. It also means an America that is choosier, more demanding and less generous. If the forces behind Trump will outlast him, India must play the long game. It needs to engage the present administration, and across the political spectrum. India also needs to read America's deep structures and appreciate that the worth of the partnership lies not in joint statements or summit optics, but in how far it helps India build its own economic, technological and military capabilities. The Blue Wave has changed the political theatre in Washington. It has not changed the forces beneath it. India's response should be realistic, not sentimental; patient, not hurried; anchored firmly in its own national interest. Read the column by Ashok K. Kantha on BasisPoint Insight. basispointinsight.com/Story/… @ashokkkantha #Indo-US #MidtermElections #Trump #India-USties

Can the rupee really be left to market forces? And if India has one of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, why does the RBI still need to intervene? In Part 15 of the Masterclass with Michael Patra, former RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra unpacks the economic rationale behind India's approach to exchange rate management. He explores how volatile capital flows, global financial shocks and India's substantial foreign liabilities expose the economy to currency risks. He also examines how sharp exchange rate movements can fuel imported inflation, complicate monetary policy and affect India's export competitiveness. The larger argument is that exchange rate stability is not about defending a particular value of the rupee. It is about insulating the economy from external shocks and preserving the conditions for sustained growth. Why can't India simply let the rupee find its own level? And what are the risks of leaving it entirely to the market? Read Part 15 of the Masterclass with Michael Patra. basispointinsight.com/Story/… #RBI #IndianEconomy #Rupee #ExchangeRate #MonetaryPolicy #MichaelPatra #BasisPointInsight

A seat at the RBI’s table must not become a market advantage. The @RBI needs to hear from people who understand how markets work. Its new markets committee can help identify operational problems, unintended consequences and emerging risks. But those conversations can also reveal commercially valuable information, even before a policy decision is made. That makes a published code of conduct essential. Confidentiality, declarations of interest, recusal and restrictions on using non-public information need clear rules. So does a practical question: what can members take back to their own treasury and trading teams? The committee’s value should lie in improving markets for everyone. An invitation into the room should not give an institution an informational head start over those outside it. Read R Gurumurthy’s analysis on BasisPoint Insight. basispointinsight.com/Story/… @apirk16 #RBI #RBITCC #MarketRegulation #InsiderInformation #MarketIntegrity #Confidentiality #ForexMarkets

Your IPO money may be funding someone else’s exit, even as the headlines celebrate billions being raised. Hyundai Motor India’s October 2024 offering illustrates the distinction. The entire issue was a sale by its South Korean parent, with none of the proceeds reaching the Indian company. There is nothing inherently wrong with that. Early investors need exits, and a company with sufficient capital need not raise more simply because it is going public. But funding a business and buying shares from its existing owners are different transactions, and the IPO pitch should make that distinction unmistakable. Writing in BasisPoint Insight, Ganga Narayan Rath and Chirayu Sharma propose a straightforward change. Keep “IPO” as the name of the event, but replace opaque terminology with plain language. Every advertisement, bid form and broker app should prominently show how much goes to the company and how much goes to selling shareholders. Prospectuses already disclose the split. The same clarity should follow the investor all the way to the subscribe button. Read their argument in BasisPoint Insight. basispointinsight.com/Story/… #IPO #CapitalMarkets #BasisPointInsight

This Diwali, may the light of knowledge guide us towards clearer perspectives, wiser decisions and brighter possibilities. As we celebrate the festival of lights, we wish you a year ahead filled with fresh ideas, meaningful progress and prosperity. Wishing you and your family a very Happy Diwali! — Team BasisPoint Insight #HappyDiwali #BasisPointInsight #Diwali2026

Can a leader accept defeat without accepting that they were wrong? When winning becomes central to a leader's identity, even an electoral setback can become a battle to protect personal image rather than an opportunity to learn. In her latest article, Kirti Tarang Pande explores the psychology of political self-protection, using Donald Trump's response to the US midterm results to examine narcissism, accountability and the cost of refusing to learn from failure. Because democracy needs leaders who can listen when voters say no — not just explain why they didn't really lose. Read the full article on BasisPoint Insight. basispointinsight.com/Story/… @MurmurInGlade #Leadership #PoliticalPsychology #DonaldTrump #Democracy #USPolitics #BasisPointInsight

Diwali means prayer, family and new beginnings across generations. But while some display prosperity, millions carry wish lists they cannot afford. @ssmumbai writes #SarciSense on our festive vanities, social rituals and the privilege of being able to celebrate. Read: basispointinsight.com/Story/… #diwali #diwali2026 #celebrations

The outcome of the midterm elections captured the fury among US voters over the elevated cost of living and the US-Iran conflict. The market price action is clear, with the weak mandate for President Trump translating into lower geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, writes Gaura Sen Gupta. The fixed income market is also pricing in a more benign inflation outlook, with moderation in US Treasury yields. In India this looks like some breathing space. FPI inflows turned positive in November 2026, and the rupee appreciated against the dollar. However, gains in the rupee are likely to remain capped as the fundamentals have not changed. The most important factor for the INR’s trajectory going forward remains the RBI’s policy action. Read Gaura’s take on the rupee, and the factors that will dictate its trajectory in “A Far More Restrained Rupee Facing a Volatile Global Outlook” on BasisPoint Insight. basispointinsight.com/Story/… @gaurasengupta #INR #USD-INR #RBI #BoP #FDI #FPI

For decades, the independent Election Commission of India was viewed as one of India’s most resilient democratic institutions. It won respect, domestically and internationally, for conducting the world’s largest electoral exercise, and emerging democracies often turned to it for advice. Today, it faces allegations of systemic bias, procedural opacity, and large-scale voter disenfranchisement. The reason: The “special intensive revision” of electoral rolls in five states saw 9.1 million names removed in Bengal alone. There are over 130 million deletions in the rest of the country which are not verified, and have disproportionately affected marginalised communities, rural migrant laborers, and the urban working class. Other issues, including illegal modifications to crucial voting documents have led to disenchantment and youth angst, writes Shashi Tharoor in his piece for Project Syndicate. Read “Why Are Indian Protesters Targeting the Electoral Commission?” on BasisPoint Insight. basispointinsight.com/Story/… @ShashiTharoor @ProSyn #ElectionCommission #BJP #Congress #SIR #IndiaPolls

What connects the failures of Satyam, IL&FS, YES Bank and Silicon Valley Bank? The warning signs existed. The checks and balances were in place. So, what went wrong? The answer may lie in what happened between the people responsible for preventing these failures. In their latest analysis, former RBI Executive Director Dr. Rabi N. Mishra and Komal Gupta revisit the Three Lines of Defence model and expose a critical weakness in corporate governance: the breakdown of communication between business, risk management, internal audit and the board. When warnings are softened, challenges ignored and audit findings left unresolved, even the strongest governance framework can become ineffective. Perhaps the real question isn't whether organisations have enough checks and controls, but whether anyone is willing to speak up when it matters most. Part 1 of a two-part series examining corporate India. Part 2 turns the spotlight on cooperative banks. Read the full analysis on BasisPoint Insight: Three Lines of Defence: Does the Model Still Defend or Even Hold? basispointinsight.com/Story/… #CorporateGovernance #RiskManagement #InternalAudit #Banking #FinancialStability #BasisPointInsight

Oil shock spreads beyond fuel, and once firms start revising prices widely, monetary tightening may become more effective. The case is most easily explained through restaurant prices. Higher food prices, commercial LPG and other costs, restaurants are ready to raise rates yet again this year. But a restaurant recovering higher LPG costs does not, by itself, establish second-round inflation. Indirect cost increases and changes in pricing behaviour are difficult to distinguish. In his piece, “Waiting Out Oil Could Cost the RBI More” on BasisPoint Insight, B. Sharathbabu says that as oil costs spread into wider price revisions, monetary policy may become more effective. A price that rises once is a shock. Repeated increases can change what people expect. The RBI’s task is to recognise when looking through becomes costly, before inflation’s spread demands a more painful response. Read: basispointinsight.com/Story/… @sharathinfin #RBI #Inflation #monetarypolicy #Oil

India’s bank credit is growing at 19% year-on-year. On the surface, that signals strong credit demand and economic activity. But a closer look at the numbers reveals a more important concern: what is driving this growth, and where is the money going? Retail lending now accounts for a significant share of incremental bank credit. More concerningly, loans against gold and unsecured personal loans are growing faster, while the share of housing loans in fresh retail lending is declining. Is India’s credit boom funding productive investment or increasingly financing household consumption? In her latest analysis, Deepa Vasudevan examines the changing composition of bank lending, the risks building up in retail credit and the RBI’s efforts to contain them. The key takeaway: The quality of credit growth matters more than the headline number. Read the full analysis on BasisPoint Insight: The Risk in India’s Credit Boom Lies in What It Funds basispointinsight.com/Story/… @dvasusg #IndianEconomy #Banking #RBI #CreditGrowth #FinancialStability #Economy #BasisPointInsight

Could Trump's electoral setback change the course of the Iran conflict? And what does it mean for India? Another US attack on Iran could have consequences far beyond West Asia. For India, renewed escalation threatens to disrupt Gulf shipping routes, drive up crude oil prices, increase pressure on the rupee and complicate energy security. With significant economic and strategic interests across the region, India has much at stake in whether Washington and Tehran move towards a negotiated settlement or another round of military confrontation. In his latest analysis, Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd), Governor of Bihar and former Commander of the Srinagar-based Chinar Corps, examines how Trump's electoral setback could reshape US military calculations, the prospects of a deal with Iran, and the shifting priorities of Israel and the Gulf states. His analysis also explores why even a US–Iran agreement may not bring lasting stability to a region where conflicts in Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza remain unresolved. For India, the question is not just whether war can be avoided, but how to safeguard its energy supplies, shipping interests and strategic relationships in an increasingly uncertain West Asia. Read the full analysis. basispointinsight.com/Story/… @atahasnain53 #WestAsia #Iran #USForeignPolicy #India #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #BasisPointInsight

Who governs essential infrastructure when public assets are in private hands? The Mumbai airport dispute raises important questions about concentrated market power, metropolitan planning and the State accountability owed to passengers and the public. Read: basispointinsight.com/Story/… @ssmumbai #MumbaiAirport #NaviMumbaiAirport #AdaniAirports #MIAL #AviationPolicy #AirportSlots #PublicAccountability

One dollar out of four. That’s what stays in India from the FDI it attracts. And what happens when these dollars leave India as repatriation or disinvestment? Debt is left to do the heavy lifting. India’s current account deficit stood at 0.5% of GDP in April-June. A deficit is financed by capital that arrives and stays. Gross FDI does not finance it; net FDI does. In her piece on BasisPoint Insight, “India Retains Just One Dollar in Four of the FDI It Attracts”, Sagari Gupta argues the picture is not all gloom, though. Retention has improved. India kept 21 cents of every gross FDI dollar in April-August 2025. It kept 25 cents this year. Second, outward FDI growth is slowing, and the RBI credits that slowdown for much of the rise in net FDI. Third, domestic investment is not weak - India ranked third in the world for announced greenfield FDI projects in April-August. None of this overturns the core point, though. A ratio that moves from one in five to one in four is better, but it still means three of every four dollars leave. Read the full article on BasisPoint Insight: basispointinsight.com/Story/… #FDI #RBI #GDP #Investment

The Democrats swept the midterm polls, and crude oil prices and bond yields echoed the relief. Back home and in other geographies as well, government bond yields staged a sharp reversal. However, is this reversal here to stay or a flash in the pan? Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan, in his column “The Great Bond Market Reversal: Is the Yield Rally Sustainable or a Temporary Relief?” discusses what it would take for the rally in bonds to sustain and what are the factors that would make it credible. Read the full article on BasisPoint Insight. basispointinsight.com/Story/… @SVenkat_Delhi #GovernmentBonds #USMidtermPoll #CrudeOil

India’s household debt is rising. But are household incomes keeping pace? Household debt has climbed from 36.4% of GDP in June 2022 to 45.9% in March 2026. Easier access to credit has helped sustain consumption, but it also raises questions about the financial health of Indian households. In his latest piece, Vivek Kaul examines what lies behind the numbers. 🔹Income growth remains subdued, pushing households towards borrowing to meet consumption needs. 🔹Non-housing retail loans account for 58.4% of household debt, according to the RBI. 🔹Gold lending is showing signs of stress, with some borrowers taking fresh loans despite already having overdue debt. 🔹Debt is growing faster than disposable income, raising questions about how long borrowing can support consumption. The concern is not merely that households are borrowing more. It is that debt may be compensating for inadequate income growth. Debt can sustain consumption for a while. But it cannot replace income indefinitely. Read @kaul_vivek's column for BasisPoint: The Trouble With India’s Growing Household Debt basispointinsight.com/Story/… #HouseholdDebt #IndiaEconomy #Consumption #RBI #PersonalFinance #GoldLoans #EconomicGrowth