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thought this was interesting.. 1) Q4 of 2021. $SPY was stuck in range for 7 weeks while in a rising wedge structure. 2) November 29th, Stocks above the 50D EMA flashed oversold warnings for savvy dip buyers. 3) January 3rd, 35 days later. Stocks above the 50D EMA ramped into near overbought territory as SPY made a new all time high to complete the rising wedge. 4) correction began next. Growth darlings sold off first.. leaders faded last Fast forward to now... 1) Q3 of 2026. $SPY has been stuck in range for 7 weeks while in a rising wedge structure. 2) September 14th, stocks above the 50D EMA flashed oversold warnings for savvy dip buyers. Steps 1 and 2?✅ My bet is that Step 3 follows. Step 4? TBD but rising wedges often lead to reversals after completion. a move into all times high just 35 days later which is Oct 19th. Just after OPEX which often is a window of weakness. A-lot of growth darlings have been slaughtered over the last 4 months while the leaders kept pressing on. Just like in the late stage rally of 2021. There are a-lot of similarities here.. History doesn't always repeat but it often to rhymes is all im saying. Best of luck as always
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thought this was interesting.. 1) Q4 of 2021. $SPY was stuck in range for 7 weeks while in a rising wedge structure. 2) November 29th, Stocks above the 50D EMA flashed oversold warnings for savvy dip buyers. 3) January 3rd, 35 days later. Stocks above the 50D EMA ramped into near overbought territory as SPY made a new all time high to complete the rising wedge. 4) correction began next. Growth darlings sold off first.. leaders faded last Fast forward to now... 1) Q3 of 2026. $SPY has been stuck in range for 7 weeks while in a rising wedge structure. 2) September 14th, stocks above the 50D EMA flashed oversold warnings for savvy dip buyers. Steps 1 and 2?✅ My bet is that Step 3 follows. Step 4? TBD but rising wedges often lead to reversals after completion. a move into all times high just 35 days later which is Oct 19th. Just after OPEX which often is a window of weakness. A-lot of growth darlings have been slaughtered over the last 4 months while the leaders kept pressing on. Just like in the late stage rally of 2021. There are a-lot of similarities here.. History doesn't always repeat but it often to rhymes is all im saying. Best of luck as always
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more depth on this thesis posted here:
$SPY This is why most stocks are down 25-50% from YTD highs & why the market has been a chop fest. We are at the end of the wave 3 for this cycle that began in 2020 so distribution is still taking place over long sideways periods & then sudden rips higher to draw in more liquidity to sell too. Its always the same scheme. Take out the soldiers & leave the generals for last. Its how they keep $SPY propped up while they liquidate else where. This rising wedge should have one more leg higher into the 780's & 790's to be structurally complete. FOMC could entirely dictate how it develops and personally I'd love a dip into 750 then a ripper from there as a trader. So yes, I am preparing for a correction and will continue to be nimble on how many trades I have open. The higher degree wave 4 still calls for about 680's at a minimum with probable downside back into 659, 620. What Warsh says (including no guidance at all is) decides if we get a +/- 1% move today to determine how this wedge develops Trade them well & best of luck out there as always
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$SPY Wave 3 under way more than likely now. Maintain 768 and 773.50 then 776.30 can trade easily. Measured upside is into 782, 787, 791. we went long on $SPY calls yesterday for 10/16. Gap down caused a need for a change of plans and instead of panicking we reevaluated and simply added to our entry as price hit demand. worked out perfectly as wave 5 continues to develop
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Avery retweeted
$SPY This is why most stocks are down 25-50% from YTD highs & why the market has been a chop fest. We are at the end of the wave 3 for this cycle that began in 2020 so distribution is still taking place over long sideways periods & then sudden rips higher to draw in more liquidity to sell too. Its always the same scheme. Take out the soldiers & leave the generals for last. Its how they keep $SPY propped up while they liquidate else where. This rising wedge should have one more leg higher into the 780's & 790's to be structurally complete. FOMC could entirely dictate how it develops and personally I'd love a dip into 750 then a ripper from there as a trader. So yes, I am preparing for a correction and will continue to be nimble on how many trades I have open. The higher degree wave 4 still calls for about 680's at a minimum with probable downside back into 659, 620. What Warsh says (including no guidance at all is) decides if we get a +/- 1% move today to determine how this wedge develops Trade them well & best of luck out there as always
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$GS There hasn't been once instance since at-least 2018 where $GS found a significant local high and $SPY didn't top shortly after too But yeah.. this time will be different and $SPY will keep launching higher im sure..
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$COIN Nested 1,2 opportunity here Expecting high and tight consolidation above 184 before big continuation follows through.
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$MSTR Complete impulse up, ABC pull back is likely the next setup 136, 126 are downside targets
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$PLTR Impulse up nearing completion. could see 203 and then I would prepare for a corrective pull back to follow soon
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$SMH Wave 2 took 39 weeks. Chances are wave 4 isn't finished in just 5.. Expecting a flat to continue to develop over the next several months. Given the momentum in the sector, a running/expanded flat should be on the table and not just a regular flat (which means this can look above ATH and come back into range)
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$XLF Intermediate wave 4 on deck here after tagging the 100% extension from the 2020 Highs. Targets $48.50 then $43 over the next year or so before the next leg up until the end of the decade. This will impact $SPY but tech bros won't tell you that. $JPM $GS $WFC $C $BAC
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$SPY pushing all time highs & < 35% of its holdings are below the 50D EMA. Same thing applies for $QQQ $DIA $IWM holdings being well below the 50% mark of the 50D EMA Nothing to see here..
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I wonder how many people still won't sell after begging for a rally like this over the last 45 days promising to sell if it happens again...
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Avery retweeted
Let me know if you want the link. This guy is a game changer if you’re in the markets like that!
$SPY $20 ripper off the expected lows in just 3 days. Textbook wedge developing Chances are this will continue to squeeze aggressively into ATH. Measured targets are 787, 798.
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$SPY $20 ripper off the expected lows in just 3 days. Textbook wedge developing Chances are this will continue to squeeze aggressively into ATH. Measured targets are 787, 798.
$SPY Textbook reversal out of HTF demand at 750 on SPY. The wedge structure continues to develop exactly as it should with measured upside into 787 and potentially 798 & 802 there after. Cheers if you read my update and stuck with the plan. We asked for a dip into 750 and it played out perfectly and provided a wonderful dip opportunity. Calls will be up nicely come open 🥂
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$BTC as it was written. Wave 5 nearing completion here now on BTC as it approaches measured targets of $86k. This is a textbook impulse to suggest buyers are clearly back in control and price continues to show strong buyers interest at the critical 50W EMA. Wave 2 should follow in the coming weeks which often results in a mean reversion back towards 72k (estimated until the local high confirms). There is also a chance we repeat August/September of 2023 and see a high and tight base build around the 50W EMA at 76-77k & wave 2 ends up being a shallow pull back (as seen in the second image). In sum, the bull market is likely back for bitcoin.
$BTC Looking at the time scales.. Im thinking this is wave 4 on bitcoin the prior pop into 82k was the cap off the 3rd wave. as long as 72k-74.6k holds.. this should still have another leg up here. Breakout confirms above 77.3k; targets are 84k and 87k again, 72k has to hold, more so 73k (200D EMA/50DEMA)
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Avery retweeted
bitcoin:native I think the bottom is in & here's why. Wave 2 & 4 are both retracing 61-78% of the prior move. Wave 3 is longer than wave 1 so this is unlikely to be a nested 1,2. This leaves one setup, A diagonal. As long as buyers defend 49k-64k. A low is likely in. I'm also a big fan of the 100M EMA in confluence with demand lows given that was critical support in 2022. The sweep and rebid of January 2026 lows is an early indication of accumulation. A rebid of the 200W EMA at 68.4k is the next trigger. Confirmation of a reversal is reclaiming the 50W EMA currently at 78.3k. The 50W EMA has been the defining moving average for a bull market since inception. Not even an exaggeration, just look at the last chart. The measured upside is into 138k, 145k, 168k, 180k for this next 4 year cycle.
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$BTC Absolutely fucking nailed it thanks for playing this week guys, hope you have a good weekend. $MSTR calls blessing us today
$BTC Looking at the time scales.. Im thinking this is wave 4 on bitcoin the prior pop into 82k was the cap off the 3rd wave. as long as 72k-74.6k holds.. this should still have another leg up here. Breakout confirms above 77.3k; targets are 84k and 87k again, 72k has to hold, more so 73k (200D EMA/50DEMA)
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cant make this shit up lmfaoo
I hate the bot replies on my posts that try to advertise another trader.. but they always gas me up me first before hyping another guy up so I mean..

ALT Happy Feel Good GIF

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I hate the bot replies on my posts that try to advertise another trader.. but they always gas me up me first before hyping another guy up so I mean..

ALT Happy Feel Good GIF

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$BTC Looking at the time scales.. Im thinking this is wave 4 on bitcoin the prior pop into 82k was the cap off the 3rd wave. as long as 72k-74.6k holds.. this should still have another leg up here. Breakout confirms above 77.3k; targets are 84k and 87k again, 72k has to hold, more so 73k (200D EMA/50DEMA)
bitcoin:native I think the bottom is in & here's why. Wave 2 & 4 are both retracing 61-78% of the prior move. Wave 3 is longer than wave 1 so this is unlikely to be a nested 1,2. This leaves one setup, A diagonal. As long as buyers defend 49k-64k. A low is likely in. I'm also a big fan of the 100M EMA in confluence with demand lows given that was critical support in 2022. The sweep and rebid of January 2026 lows is an early indication of accumulation. A rebid of the 200W EMA at 68.4k is the next trigger. Confirmation of a reversal is reclaiming the 50W EMA currently at 78.3k. The 50W EMA has been the defining moving average for a bull market since inception. Not even an exaggeration, just look at the last chart. The measured upside is into 138k, 145k, 168k, 180k for this next 4 year cycle.
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