🏈 BRONCOS vs CHIEFS NFL WEEK 1 BEST BET
📉 BRONCOS vs CHIEFS UNDER 43.5
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🗣️ "Patrick Mahomes is making his first start back from an ACL injury with no preseason reps, so we should expect some rust early.
The Chiefs are also dealing with a major offensive line issue. Left tackle Josh Simmons is likely out with a back injury, meaning Kansas City is rolling out undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson and right tackle Jaylon Moore to fend off Nik Bonitto and this fearsome Denver pass rush.
This is also not a great debut spot for Kenneth Walker against a Denver run defense that has been elite for the last two years.
On the other side, new Broncos offensive coordinator Davis Webb has to work out the kinks of his new offensive scheme against an always-good Steve Spagnuolo defense in primetime.
This division rivalry has been an under machine in recent years.
The Broncos have covered four of the last five meetings after Kansas City won 16 straight, but more importantly, these teams have played six straight matchups that finished at 41 points or below, averaging just 33.7 points per game.
This is the totals trend spot of the week.
Non-Thursday primetime unders are hitting at 60% since 2019 (161-107-4). Monday night divisional unders with a total between 41 and 48 are hitting at 66% since 2018. Week 1 unders from 41 to 45.5 are an incredible 94-56-1 (63%).
We also have double-digit winds forecasted, and windy unders have cashed at 61% over the last five years.
Mahomes as a home favorite is 40-21-1 to the under in his career, including a 22-7 (76%) mark since 2022. It's not as exciting as we want Mahomes to be, but this is just what the Chiefs do in this spot — grind it out and hope to win a close one."
@wheatonbrando