not financial advice

Atherton, CA
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
Tenjin: Mobile Gaming Benchmark 2026... "AppLovin strengthened its lead on iOS in Q2, increasing from 39% to 44% of ad revenue share." Here are the rev-share stats from Q1 to Q2: $U - Unity: - iOS: 13% → 14% - Android: 12% → 12% $APP - AppLovin: - iOS: 39% → 44% - Android: 19% → 23% Mintegral: - iOS: 21% → 16% - Android: 17% → 12% I'm not convinced this narrative that Unity is taking market-share from AppLovin is valid. More market-share = More data = better models. $APP $U
16
7
117
30,872
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
JUST IN: AppLovin $APP e-commerce clients rise 5.1% week over week to 13,105
1
11
152
20,293
RT @rfvivas: They call Dovas Zakas, "The Crazy Lithuanian" at @HelloFresh. At work he is a Swiss Army knife. He can do media buying, grap…
1
2
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
JUST IN: Citi reiterates "Buy" on AppLovin $APP with a $600 price target as e-commerce adoption accelerates
13
14
285
24,705
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
Big thanks to @theallinpod for having Adam at the All-In Summit. If you couldn’t make it, this is a great opportunity to hear directly from our CEO about AppLovin, our business, and where we’re headed.
All-In Summit: AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi -- Inside the mobile games advertising giant -- Is your phone actually listening to you? -- Why the agent economy skips the average shopper -- $1B of EBITDA at a $3.8B market cap, and a $6B buyback ++ much more! (0:00) Adam Foroughi joins the Besties! (3:07) Discovery vs search & is your phone listening? (10:04) IPO tumble & becoming your own best investor (16:00) Privacy rules, Apple's crackdown & how agents change people’s shopping (20:00) How a lean team beats the giants, margin moats & building in China
3
8
91
11,082
$APP 📈
Less than 1% of advertisers in the world use @AppLovin yet we have north of $11B of annual ad spend on the platform and reach over a billion users daily. In baseball terms, the players just walked onto the field for the national anthem. The first inning hasn’t even started yet.
8
1,285
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
$APP AppLovin's Axon Pixel adoption is entering an inflection phase. • Jun 28: 10,225 store installs • Aug 09: 10,908 store installs (+683 stores over 6 weeks) • Sep 06: 12,020 store installs (+1,112 stores over just 4 weeks) Keep in mind this is only 1 month of data. But its showing clear signs of growth.
$APP AXON Pixel installs up 2.11% WoW From 11,772 → 12,020 Slight acceleration from last week, with strong continued growth overall 🐂
1
2
36
1,451
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
Citi maintains their $APP price target... PT: $600 → +83% upside Rating: Buy Commentary: "Based on peers' revenue growth rate, EBITDA margins, and equity values, AppLovin should be worth $550 per share..." (Source: Jason Bazinet, Citi) $APP
6
14
164
9,030
Show me a vp+ / c level exec at a $100B+ company that is responding to tweets and jumping in to support $APP
Replying to @wealthmatica
Appreciate the feedback. I'll shoot you a DM for more information, so we can help out!
3
1
32
10,720
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
$APP If you ask me, the market is sleeping on this disconnect: • Forward P/E: 14x • Adjusted EBITDA Margins: 84% • Real-World Performance: Delivering 100%+ incremental ROAS for 9-figure enterprises We’re looking at a hyper-lean cash engine that is providing serious returns for businesses.
2
32
1,315
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
ServiceNow generates 2.2X more revenue than AppLovin. $NOW: $4.58B FCF $APP: $4.50B FCF Yet, they produce virtually the same free cash flow. $NOW $APP
9
9
150
18,569
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
I consider AppLovin $APP have already succeeded in eCommerce. It's already a significant portion of overall gross spend in U.S. It's just can be materially better. In the end of 2024, eCommerce was already responsible for around 15%~20% of gross spend on the platform in the U.S. assuming take rates were similar between the U.S. and international markets. This numbers was disclose in 2025 Q1, when Applovin said its eCommerce vertical had surpassed $1B ARR in gross spend by the end of 2024, versus around $10B in gaming. This was before they had opened the platform to international markets. At the time, the U.S. represented only around half of revenue. With the growth in 2025 and 2026, AppLovin's U.S. gross spend portion should be materially larger today. What's even more insane is that the 15~20% figure was achieve with 600 customer. And even today they still only have around 10,000 pixels providing them data. Given that limited data footprint, what they've already achieved is unbelievable. From the overall platform perspective, I think AppLovin should already be consider as succeeding in eCommerce. The problem is simply that eCommerce is such a massive vertical that even a very large achievement still looks small relative to the total opportunity. - I also suspect AppLovin's eCommerce business is already profitable, given Adam's view that an ads platform doesn't make sense if the platform itself can't make money. I'm less certain about this part. But the overall achievement is already extremely impressive. And the fact that there is still so much room for improvement is actually a very good thing. Now even big companies like @Wayfair are using the platform. - AppLovin's eCommerce revenue should be materially lower than its share of gross spend because AppLovin records revenue on a net basis. If they record any net revenue, given the insane small fixed cost, they should already be profitable in eCommerce even when they should still be in investing stage.
The analogy gets better... it took medallion 3 years to successfully expand from FICC markets to equities. Required a completely different data set and tick-by-tick data. They lost money the first couple of years, but eventually became their largest market. Feels similar. $APP
1
2
29
11,010
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
The analogy gets better... it took medallion 3 years to successfully expand from FICC markets to equities. Required a completely different data set and tick-by-tick data. They lost money the first couple of years, but eventually became their largest market. Feels similar. $APP
h/t Fred Liu when he said that $App is the RenTec of ads i.e., you're never going to find out what's in the model – you either trust the team and the outputs, or you don't But for some reason everyone on this app just says the same nonsense in 1 million different ways. We do not need another quarterly breakdown from a fintwit influencer who just found out what AppLovin/Axon is
6
8
84
41,192
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
The $APP Thesis in One Post: 1. Fundamentals • Revenue: $1.924B (+53% YoY) | Management guided 20%–30%+ baseline CAGR • Adj. EBITDA Margin: 84% ($1.614B) • Free Cash Flow: $863.3M • Diluted EPS: $3.76 (+57% YoY) 2. Valuation • Forward P/E: ~14x • P/S (NTM): 15x 3. The Core Business / MOAT • MAX (The Supply Moat & Fee Arbitrage): AppLovin owns MAX, the core mediation layer controlling mobile app ad supply. When external DSPs (like Meta or Google) bid on inventory, they are charged standard platform mediation fees (5%–15%) and bid blindly with delayed feedback loops. Because AppLovin owns the pipe, they don’t charge themselves fees. This zero-friction advantage lowers Axon’s net clearing cost threshold, allowing them to submit the highest net-clearing bid and win high-value impressions while capturing sub-100ms real-time auction telemetry. • AXON (The Compounding AI Demand Engine): Running directly on top of MAX’s live telemetry, Axon 2.0 evaluates 2.5M+ requests/sec across a single unified auction layer. Instead of selling brand awareness, it operates on a pure pay-for-performance/ROAS model. High-frequency deep learning predicts conversion value with unmatched precision creating a closed data flywheel where every impression won improves future model accuracy. • AppLovin Ads (The Open Self-Serve Inflection): AppLovin has generated billions in run-rate revenue while operating as a restricted, managed-only platform for a small pool of accounts. With AppLovin Ads now open globally via self-serve and direct Shopify integrations, millions of DTC merchants, web apps, and autonomous AI media buyers can deploy spend programmatically on demand with zero onboarding friction. Fundamentals ✅ Valuation ✅ Core Business ✅ Im long $APP
4
3
42
2,656
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
h/t Fred Liu when he said that $App is the RenTec of ads i.e., you're never going to find out what's in the model – you either trust the team and the outputs, or you don't But for some reason everyone on this app just says the same nonsense in 1 million different ways. We do not need another quarterly breakdown from a fintwit influencer who just found out what AppLovin/Axon is
4
5
38
41,876
Finally Amit does a bit of coverage $APP
$APP Talked to a former Applovin employee over the weekend, here’s some of his thoughts: - Applovin’s business has been ads within mobile games. It is very profitable, 1B people per day play games, and $META or $GOOGL have not been able to break their moat. But, growth rates have slowed down from 70% to now 55% which is incredible, but not good enough for the street because they don’t see the TAM expanding yet. - Mobile gaming opportunity is large but viewed as saturated and very high growth rates likely aren’t sustainable in this one category. - Company has guided to keeping their growth at 30%+ but the decline in YoY growth rates have hurt sentiment. Applovin can change this by showing their Ecom expansion can increase the TAM but the company has failed to meaningfully show this which is why the stock has been stuck. The Q2 call didn’t really address the TAM expansion either which is why the stock has been falling so rapidly since then. - He said management is exceptional and understands what they are doing, it’s not a team to bet against, but the problem is the street is not convinced their growth can expand beyond gaming yet. He himself is also not fully convinced and feels ready to sell a significant portion of stock if the Q after holiday season doesn’t show the TAM expanding beyond mobile games. - He also said the short reports are pretty much just noise. Nothing ever serious has come from them and they aren’t rooted in anything real. Stock is down 50% YTD…obviously looks like a bargain and I wonder how much lower the street can send it. Only major software large cap that hasn’t recovered…is anyone buying it here?
3
1
18
4,349
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
11,280 stores now have $APP AXON pixel installed. a MASSIVE 3.4% in a single week (fastest growth since tracking started) the pixel is what lets a merchant actually run ads on AXON and feed purchase data back into the system. So installs means a bigger pool of merchants who are able to spend & better data quality. thiss improves targeting and adds more advertisers more pixels doesn’t mean a store is spending yet. as some just test it, so this confirms adoption is accelerating, but it hasn’t shown up as revenue (yet) 🐂
From store lead, $APP Applovin AXON Pixel installment increased by 3.41% week over week from 10908 to 11280, the largest wow increase since I started tracking. It measures how many online stores currently have that specific tracking pixel installed on their site. SOURCE: storeleads.app/help/faq/list…
2
4
49
6,318
I am a Machado fan after this one #UFC
222
We love to see @xc_giovanni_ge , the mind behind Axon 2.0. More Gio, more $APP
Molly O'Shea it was great for Adam and I to sit down with you and talk about Applovin's culture. Our conversation inspired me to put into words some of the principles our team developed organically as we built. AI makes building faster. It also makes building the wrong things faster. At AppLovin, engineers sit above AI—not alongside it. “AI did it” is never an excuse. You own the decision. But ownership alone isn’t enough. You also need taste—especially the judgment to know what not to build. Much of Axon’s success comes from what we deliberately chose to leave on the table. AI can help us solve problems. Deciding which problems are worth solving is still our job. More at the Sourcery podcast: piped.video/IZHwulZQixQ?si=2JIF…
1
11
1,634
ExAdTechQuant retweeted
Pat Dorsey just added to his $APP position: • Total Shares: 439,000 • Market Value: ~$226M • Increase: +36% Dorsey built his entire investment career identifying wide economic moats and durable compounders. AppLovin fit’s this glove.
4
4
63
9,320