Economics, Finance | NYT Bestselling Author | Filmmaker | Entrepreneur
Baltimore, MD
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Every decade has a “trade of the decade”: a hated asset written off right before it turns.
Gold in the 2000s, Japan in the 2010s, oil in the 2020s.
Next may be the most hated of all: #bonds — yields are finally high enough to matter again.
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In today's Grey Swan Pro, Andrew gives a quick way to execute the bond trade across Treasurys, corporates, munis and more.
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How long does an #AI #chip actually last?
It's an accounting choice that flatters profits: firms assume 5-6 years, yet ship a faster one yearly.
The chip melts whether you write it down or not.
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The 10-year yield just hit a 19-year high near 5%.
You'd expect #housing to join the debasement trade — a house is a real asset.
But it runs on a mortgage, and at 7% it's frozen: buyers can't afford it, sellers won't drop their 3% loans.
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In today's Grey Swan Pro, Andrew shows exactly where to place your chips if you agree with the contrarian's bid.
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In today's Grey Swan Pro, Andrew recommends one player strategically positioned for the secular rise in uranium demand and prices ahead.
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The “debasement trade” is simple: the debt's too big to pay in stable money, so the dollar gets weakened.
When paper buys less, real things rise — #gold, silver, oil, #fertilizer, and the stocks that own them.
You can't print oil or gold.
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Today's Grey Swan Pro looks at an underpriced resource benefiting early from dollar debasement — one no AI data center can be built without, with a moat no competitor can touch.
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A farmer can do everything right and get wiped out by three weeks of rain.
So instead of betting on the weather, own the one input every farmer needs: #fertilizer.
And it's breaking out — moving first, beneath the crops.
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Today's Grey Swan Pro looks at a U.S. fertilizer company with a cost advantage, trading at 10x earnings — real upside on a higher-for-longer fertilizer trade.
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As the Japanese bond goes, so goes the U.S. Treasury.
#Japan's 10-year yield just topped 3% for the first time since 1996, the yen near 40-year lows.
If Japan defends the yen by selling U.S. #Treasurys, American yields rise. Its problem becomes ours.
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Today's Grey Swan Pro recommendation is a counterintuitive one — built around what actually happens when rates soar, not what theory says should.
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For 70 years, #fusion was the punchline — always 30 years away.
Not anymore: it's raised $14B+, with Sam Altman its biggest personal backer.
Whoever gets there first controls the energy of the next century.
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September and October are historically the weakest months for stocks — worst of all in midterm years.
Forget “sell in May.” The data says take profits in August, return in late October.
And a surprise election result can deepen the dip.
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Today's Grey Swan Pro recommendation is a simple hedge trade that could deliver double-digit returns over the next few weeks if the market follows its seasonal sell-off pattern.
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The savings rate is nearing all-time lows as stock ownership hits a record high.
With cash losing to 3%+ #inflation, savers are chasing stocks instead.
That's stage one of a “crack-up boom.” When it bites, people retreat to staples.
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Today's Grey Swan Pro recommendation is a staple consumer-goods provider at 12x earnings, paying a 6% dividend — far more than a savings account.
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#Vietnam just passed China as #Nike's top factory base.
Apple, Samsung and Intel are following — labor's ~$3/hr vs. China's $7–8.
Sept 2026 makes it an emerging market. The quiet factory floor just became investable.
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The debasement trade is hitting what you can't print — #gold, oil, #naturalgas.
U.S. gas storage just hit a decade low, ~25 days vs. 50+ in the shale era.
A weak dollar plus winter. A cold snap could take prices from under $3 to $5.
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Today's Grey Swan Pro recommendation is where the debasement trade meets the natural-gas “widowmaker” — a company operating well now and set to gain as heating season arrives.
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