The Underground Investor | 🐋 Searching the depths while others skim the surface
Washington D.C
- Tweets 4,686
- Following 793
- Followers 821
- Likes 15,640
Pinned Tweet
$OMER after 15 YEARS. It’s finally happening.
Narsoplimab is the breakthrough in rare disease we’ve been waiting for — and it’s roaring back.
$8.78 pre-market (+114%) — next stop: $20+. FDA, don’t blink. Alexion once started this way.
Novo Nordisk and Omeros announce asset purchase and license agreement for Omeros’ clinical-stage MASP-3 inhibitor zaltenibart (OMS906)
I’ve been following $OMER for 15 years, and it’s finally reached a pivotal moment with scientific approval from the FDA, solidifying its position as one of the most undervalued biotech stocks heading into 2025. This progress is driven by its lead asset, narsoplimab, which targets complement-related diseases like HSCT-TMA.
The potential market for narsoplimab is significant, with few treatment options available for these high-need indications. The drug has shown promising results in late-stage trials, and a key recent catalyst was Omeros’ submission of its statistics package to the FDA, marking substantial progress toward regulatory approval in 2025
2
3
17
9,820
I already told U.S. automakers this would happen even if the administration changed. This is not a Republican or Democratic push, it is coming from the administration. Both parties will have to accept the economic shift. @Ford knew it was coming (that’s why the CEO went to China) but moved too slowly. @Tesla knew it too and tried to block it. The result will be better, more affordable EVs plus growth, a triple win for the U.S. economy, U.S. consumers, and China.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 President Trump considers allowing Chinese automakers to build electric vehicles in the US.
103
Rare diseases stay rare because no one finds the patients. AI changes that. $OMER already has the first-and-only drug for TA-TMA and a Novo-backed complement platform. Stock breaking 52-week highs +300% gains
7
211
I mentioned this a few years ago, but I can say more about it now, Chinese EV competition is coming to America with Jobs & improved manufacturing. Why do we need this? Our domestic supply chain needs help.
The path will be licensing, battery technology, suppliers, partnerships, JV and localized manufacturing. This will be good for American consumers and economic growth, a win for two nations.
U.S. auto industry has been protected from the most aggressive automotive competition in the world and it produced mediocre cars. Meanwhile, Chinese automakers have gotten very good at manufacturing, batteries, software integration, speed of product development and delivering more features at lower price points.
Fair Competition forces improvement. Instead of trying to permanently keep that competition out, the better long-term outcome is bringing the manufacturing expertise, supply chain and know-how here while making companies compete under U.S. rules. There’s a lot more coming here than people realize.
100
For beverage brands like $celh, maintaining around 10% growth is essential to stay competitive in the energy drink market. Falling below this could result in losing market share, slowing growth to 5%, and risking the fate of becoming the next Rockstar failure. Although the recent change in $celh's executive team was positive, I believe they should have hired someone with experience beyond Rockstar. They need to bring in more talent from Redbull or $mnst that can effectively sell a story and innovate in drinks. Rockstar's sales declined during the Pepsi acquisition, which reflects poor hiring decisions at $CELH—avoiding hiring those who never knew how to sustain real growth without promos that damaged the brand. $CELH should stop heavily discounting their drinks, as it weakens the brand. A sales strategy based on discounts is arguably the worst branding decision; being $.50 cheaper won't attract quality customers, and you can't expect to feel or be seen as cool by discounting a high-priced product against $mnst and Red Bull. Stay within the premium price range and stop reacting. Innovated with cane sugar drinks to offer a healthy alternative, because people dislike the fake sugar taste.
1
3
195
$OMER Q2 materially changes the thesis: YARTEMLEA is now proving itself as a commercial asset. My fair-value ~$27 as my base case. Here’s why: YARTEMLEA Q2 net revenue was $28.5M vs $9.9M in Q1. Omeros reached operating break-even & generated $4.1M of operating cf for the quarter
1
7
675
What remains: proving Q2 demand is repeatable, broadening transplant-center adoption and executing reimbursement. The permanent J-code is live and NTAP begins Oct. 1. EMA re-examination remains uncertain, so I assign Europe $0 in my base valuation.
1
4
121
I’ve followed $OMER for 15 years and called it biotech’s most undervalued name. Q2 changed the story: YARTEMLEA net sales hit $28.5M vs $9.9M in Q1, cash flow turned positive, and dilution fell. It’s no longer distressed-cheap. U.S. execution drives value; EMA is upside.
4
312
OMER is not cheap if you assume YARTEMLEA stalls below roughly $100 million of revenue, but it is meaningfully undervalued if you believe it can become ~$200M franchise by 2030. On my base case, Omeros is worth around the $14, bull case, it can be worth $25, bear case $7
1
1
203
The thesis is wrong if $OMER cannot scale beyond a niche “rescue only” product. Any flat or declining revenue after the launch quarter, little evidence of additional transplant-center penetration, or persistent dependence on off-label complement inhibitors.
1
37
Investors give too much credit to legendary older founders & CEOs because of what they already accomplished.
But investing, like sports, has a performance curve.
The same person who built a generational company may not be the best person to compound at the same rate forever.
1
78
Use investment techniques as diagnostics, not rules.
Most rules only work in the environment that created them. Once everyone knows the rule, applies it, & arbitrages the trick, the edge starts disappearing
The mistake is treating old rules as proxy after the system has changed
1
57
But great revenue growth doesn’t always mean great shareholder returns.
BABA didn’t stall because e-commerce died.
It stalled because growth slowed, competition rose, margins compressed, and the market stopped paying a premium multiple.
That’s the risk for MELI now.
1
67
If MELI has to keep buying growth through free shipping, logistics spend, and credit expansion, the stock can rerate lower while the business keeps growing.
The real question:
Is $MELI compounding earnings?
Or becoming another platform where revenue grows but the stock stalls?
75
$TMDX has a founder-led governance and communication risk. CEO Waleed Hassanein appears to be a major strength operationally and clinically the best, but also a potential weakness if investor communication, internal controls, culture, and succession depth do not improve.
1
1
218
Celsius is not ahead of Monster’s old international curve by mix. It is behind by penetration, but starting from a much larger North American base. If Celsius can move international from ~4–5% of sales toward even Monster’s old 10–15% mix, that could become a major 2nd growth leg
1
85
That gives Celsius more whitespace, but it also means the market has not yet proven global brand portability at Monster’s level. Also, Celsius didn’t have organic growth Alani Nu is leading the growth
1
37
For a pure apple to apple growth comparison, we will have to wait until next quarter to see how Alani Nu and Celsius international numbers can confirm its solid penetration in international markets. $MNST 2009 q1 to q2 grew $30M to $40M(33% QoQ), which is the benchmark to beat.
83