Say you want to know: will the Fed raise rates next month?
If you're a regular person, you Google it. You find three headlines — one says yes, one says no, one says maybe. You pick the one that sounds most convincing, or the one from the source you trust most. That's not a forecast. That's a vibe check.
If you ask ChatGPT, it gives you a confident paragraph. "Based on current economic indicators, it appears likely that..." It sounds smart. But it has no track record, no accuracy score, and if you ask the same question tomorrow with slightly different wording, you might get a different answer. It doesn't know how often it's been right before — because nobody's counting.
If you check Polymarket, you get a number — say 55%. That's better. Real money is behind it. But it's just a price. There's no explanation for why it's 55% and not 40%. No evidence trail. No reasoning you can walk through. And if the number changes overnight, you have no idea what drove it.
☘️ Here's what happens inside Yarrow.
The same question goes to many independent analysts. They're running on three different AI models from two different providers. None of them can see the market price. None of them can see each other's work.
Each one gets the same frozen evidence pack — official data, dated sources, verified statistics. No live search. No Twitter. No vibes. They each have to produce a complete chain: what mechanism drives the outcome → what the data says → what probability they assign.
Before any of that ships, the evidence pack runs through five checks: are the numbers internally consistent? Is anything missing that should be there? Is there any information that could only be known after the fact? Has an independent red team tried to break the argument?
The final number is the median of the valid analysts — not a vote, not a discussion, not a compromise. Just the middle of six independent judgments.
Then it gets frozen. Locked in git. Published. And when the outcome is known, scored — right next to every other prediction we've ever made.
Google gives you headlines. ChatGPT gives you confidence. Polymarket gives you a price. Yarrow gives you a probability with the evidence behind it, the reasoning you can audit, and a track record you can check.
That's the difference between looking for an answer and building one.