Prediction market industry research and intelligence
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Next step unlocked: We’ve officially filed with the CFTC for equity perps in the US, following our Form 1-N acknowledgement by the SEC last week. Bridging digital asset innovation with US capital markets is happening in real time. Brick by brick 📈
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Aldrin Research retweeted
Press release: PrizePicks now says you can combine (or "parlay") game outcomes with their traditional "more" or "less" player picks.
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Aldrin Research retweeted
The PM Scoreboard 006.
PMs keep accelerating.
The top 10 CFTC-regulated exchanges generated an additional $7.3B in trading volume in Sep 15–21 compared to 3 weeks ago, or a +59.5% increase.
@Kalshi’s market share was 86.4% in Scoreboard 003 (CFTC-regulated exchanges only).
Now, it’s 73.5% – inclusive of all 10 leading CFTC-regulated exchanges + @Polymarket DeFi.
@Kalshi’s market share drops to 54.5% when you look at sports event contracts only, excluding Combos.
The PM Scoreboard, powered by @AldrinResearch data, is committed to delivering the most comprehensive and accurate weekly trading volume analysis in the industry.
Stay tuned as we dig further into taker volume and volume that some PMs route to other DCMs.
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Aldrin Research retweeted
We just submitted a regulatory filing to introduce margin on a subset of long-dated prediction markets. This will not apply to sports, culture, and a few other categories.
We are very excited to be taking what we believe is our most important step toward institutional adoption so far.
Capital efficiency has been the biggest bottleneck for institutions, and margin is the single most requested feature. Fully collateralizing long-dated contracts ties up substantial capital for months or years, making participation impractical for many institutions. It is very difficult for a large institutional market to develop without margin.
Margin addresses that problem by reducing capital requirements, subject to strict risk standards.
Some important characteristics of our proposal:
• Margin applies only to a narrow set of categories, excluding sports and culture.
• It is geared toward institutions and subject to strict eligibility requirements.
• The risk methodology is modeled on approaches used by established clearinghouses and tested over decades. It incorporates conservative safeguards around volatility, liquidity, concentration, and event risks, as well as measures to limit sharp increases in margin requirements during market stress.
The goal is a better trading experience for users. Greater capital efficiency enables more institutional participation, bringing deeper liquidity and better pricing. That makes our markets more attractive to more traders, whose participation further strengthens liquidity and improves the experience for everyone.
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Kalshi asks CFTC to allow margin trading on its platform, letting users buy with borrowed funds cnbc.com/2026/09/22/kalshi-a…
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Crypto prediction market share shifted significantly this summer between @Kalshi and @Polymarket International.
Based on taker volume, Kalshi’s share rose from 60% in the week of May 19 to 92% in the week of September 14.
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Aldrin Research retweeted
Single stock perps are coming to America.
Coinbase has filed to list the first set of single stock perpetual futures in the US.
Building on the progress of our live US perps market, we’re working to bring liquid, 24/5 exposure to individual stocks in the US for the first time.
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RT @GeniusSports: 🗣️ "Prediction markets did not invent the desire to wager on a sporting outcome. They offer another way to express it, an…
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Today, the SEC acknowledged the Form 1-N of our futures exchange through OG.com and we are now authorized to bring single-stock futures to the market. We are working with the SEC and the CFTC to offer single-stock perps in the US, which will combine the innovations of the digital asset markets with the US capital markets. This is a huge moment for our team and platform - more updates soon.
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Full prediction market volume data was published by @Underdog, including activity on its own exchange and volume routed to third-party exchanges.
$1.57B in prediction market volume over the last 60 days.
On a gross basis, that would rank Underdog #4 among U.S. CFTC-regulated platforms, before accounting for volume also reported by @Kalshi and @cryptocom (Nadex).
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Source: data.underdogexchange.com/
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NFL Week 1 saw $1.28B traded across individual game markets on 9 CFTC-regulated prediction market exchanges.
We broke down operator market share from the 5 highest-volume games, which accounted for 66% of that volume ($848.3M) 👇
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Why we publish full-week NFL volume on Wednesdays:
Exchanges use different cutoffs: some use a full-calendar day, while others close in the evening.
That pushes some Monday Night Football volume into Tuesday’s reports.
We process those reports when they become available and publish full-week totals accordingly.
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More exchanges mean more markets, more reporting timelines to account for and more data to piece together.
We do the hard work of bringing it all together, so your team doesn’t have to.
Reach out to learn how @AldrinResearch can help your team better navigate the prediction market landscape.
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Aldrin Research retweeted
The PM Scoreboard 005 is live 🔥.
The top 10 CFTC-regulated exchanges generated an additional $4.7B in trading volume in Sep 8–14 compared to two weeks ago (Aug 25–31), or +38.3% growth.
The top 10 combined for $16.8B in trading volume – more than half of this volume comes from combos, now sitting at a 53.2% share.
@Kalshi’s market share fell to 79.5% from 84.9% the week before (and 86.4% two weeks before), as growth from #2 through #7 outpaced the leader.
@DKSports keeps charging. DKeX, DK’s DCM, has climbed the rankings from #8 in Scoreboard 003 to #5 in Scoreboard 004 to #3 this week, with $464M in trading volume – $114M above @cryptocom in fourth.
On @Kalshi, the first four primetime NFL games saw total volume of roughly $95–$115M each. The most popular World Cup matches saw about 3 to 4× as much trading volume as these NFL games.
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Aldrin Research retweeted
Jacob reaffirms Novig exceeding $1B in trading volume
JB says we are about to enter a prediction markets super cycle
Ric calls prediction markets the most flexible asset class he's ever seen
prediction market panel with Ric Best from SIG, Jacob Fortinsky from Novig, and JB Mackenzie from Robinhood
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