Value investor. Istanbul. Nothing I post is investment advice. All my writeups are free. No paywalls. altaycap.substack.com/
Switzerland
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Here's my silly 9 games thing. Played many MMOs but Ultima Online was by far my favorite. Was my first experience getting scammed online. Eventually got so good I made like $8k on one summer selling in game gold on eBay when I was like 14 or 15. Good times.
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Lots of durable value stocks in Japan. Here's one: profitable for 70 years straight (since 1957), 9x ev/ebit, 3.3% dividend, 12 p/e, 0.8x book.
Maezawa Kyuso 6485.T
No strong opinion, just found it neat that it's been profitable so long + decent dividend!
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Given how universally negative replies are here, BKNG is looking like a decent short term sentiment short. Everyone is bullish! People saying I'm drinking the agents koolaid when I said BKNG is cheap AND potential disruption is a decade away!
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$BKNG discourse regarding agents:
If the interface to book changes, OTAs lose. Boutique hotels don't need to be tech savvy. They will run some white label SaaS product that interfaces with agents and handles booking.
OTAs are bad for society. Huge take rates (20%+) due to rent seeking. No real innovation / value add to society. Disruption here is good.
Disruption will be slow because I imagine bkng contracts will stifle adoption and agent usage is still nothing and won't be anything material for at least a decade. If bkng trades at 30 p/e, it would be an easy short. But today's valuation isn't too demanding. But still tempting to short.
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New writeup on the 'stack. Free like always. Applied (TYO 3020) is a very cheap company with solid 17.6% RoE despite sitting on half their market cap in net cash. This is a name I've posted about on X several times since 2024. Posted it last night.
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Kadoya Sesame Mills (2612.T) is limit up today after a paid services said it was going to go private. Company said they were considering it but haven't announced anything yet. Sadly I didn't hold onto it despite minimal downside, and decent upside.
My gut says Mitsubishi will takeover 2612 Kadoya too. Massively net cash. Trading around book. Mitsubishi owns 26.8% already.
What's the downside to holding something like this? Some opportunity cost for sure. Durable/safe biz that never loses money. On margin looks good.
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Seems like im the only one blown away by these numbers. $ttwo had an incredibly storied history with many successful games and over a decade of high margin gta5 online numbers, but even pre Zynga writedown barely had any profit.
Will gta6 be different?
Take Two (think Grand Theft Auto) has accumulated deficit of $7.3 bn. Zelnick + 1 other exec got $72.3m in 2023. Retained earnings peaked @ $2.3bn. Zelnick + the other exec were paid ~$339m since 2016, or 1/7th of the entire firm's peak cumulative profit. Good deal for them.
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AltayCap retweeted
This could be a HUGE boost to Japan's governance reforms, with potentially big implications for M&A
Japan eyes tax breaks for non-core business sales in governance reform push, sources say reuters.com/world/japan-eyes…
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Had 10 plates of Kura sushi in the U.S. today, came out to $42. The same 10 plates are about $9-$10 in Tokyo. Yen seems undervalued, but macro/fx is impossible to predict. Can't imagine how crazy the prices must feel to Japanese on holiday to U.S.
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I looked at this name again today and bought some Friday. This is not a get rich name but the risk adjusted reward looks quite good. $760m mcap company with consistent profitability since at least 1995 (as far as Koyfin data goes). Not a single Q of operating loss either.
$4628 Sk Kaken thesis:
1. The stock is currently a modest value trap. 10x earnigns with a 2% dividend that has been going up with Japan's shareholder pressure campaign. I'll arbitrarily assume that'll normalize to a 3% dividend on average - sometimes it'll be a bit worse, sometimes a bit better, but that's a fine guess. On top of that, the cash pile will grow with earings which you can discount say 70%, so another 3%. Total is a low downside risk 6%/year expected return. Not great, but honestly not that bad.
2. Founder/family control is the blocker. Shikoku Kousan owns 31.88%, and Fujii Minoru, Fujii Kunihiro, and Fujii Mitsuhiro own another roughly 9.3%, so the Fujii-side block is about 41% excluding treasury shares. The company also has 2.18m treasury shares, about 13.9% of issued shares, with no votes.
3. The relevant entity is 四国興産有限会社 / Shikoku Kousan, located in Takarazuka, Hyogo. It is listed as established on September 1, 1998, so as of June 16, 2026, it is 27 years and about 9.5 months old.
That is much younger than SK Kaken itself, which was founded in 1955 and incorporated in 1958.
4. The patriarch is almost certainly Fujii Minoru, the SK Kaken founder. He is 93, turning 94 on September 1, 2026.
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Heads you get a safe 6%/year turn.
Tails, the patriarch passes away and you get a 15%+/year expected return. If you assign even 30% odds to tails, this is a fantastic risk adjusted bet.
If the patriarch was even 10 years younger, that looks far more questionable.
If anyone else has these age-as-a-catalyst plays, please comment or DM me.
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AltayCap retweeted
The anti-datacenter psychosis sweeping through both sides of our national politics might be the worst mass movement I've seen in my lifetime. The magnitude of lies underpinning it, the threat it poses to our economy and civilization, and the sheer scale of its popularity are totally unprecedented. It should be an enduring national shame that the country that invented the airplane, landed on the Moon, and created the Internet is descending into superstitious panic at the very moment growth matters most
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New writeup on the 'Stack. MegaChips (TYO 6875). After-tax stake in $SITM in the U.S. + NCAV is ¥19,842 vs ¥11,250 stock price. Operating biz is capital light and management aims for ¥10bn in OP in FY30. There's other financial assets too.
mcap: ¥158.3 billion ($1 bn USD)
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TOC (8841.T) up 5% at open after an article on Facta suggests 3D and Oasis may be trying to get involved (no formal ownership stake is public). Been saying this is cheap for a while. Not sure what activists can do given founding family 50%+ ownership.
TOC 8841 has been on a tear recently. They reported earnings now and handedly beat their own forecast 2,462 million OP vs 1,950 million forecast. FY27 forecast is 54% improvement to 3.8 billion and now predicts FY29 operating profit of 7 billion. Also deploying net cash to grow
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