Sharing my trading ideas. Market Profile // OrderFlow "Even the open, transparent lake has its unknown depths, which no divers know." — Hans Christian Andersen
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Tomorrow the 25SEP expiry hits - positions are always closed ahead of it, this doesn't reflect trader sentiment.
Puts on 30 OCT are being built up in small size, that's a bullish sign. At the same time whales are buying calls while retail is hedging with puts on that date.
Also interesting that at the highs on 21 SEP someone large dumped their exposure right at the local high, 10 hours before the flush to 84k began. That was the smart exit. Plus the diagonal: 750 Nov 88k calls bought, 750 Mar 100k calls sold, playing the move with near-term, selling the far upside.
Based on this I think the bearish signal has already played out and the medium-term bullish signal is still alive
$BTC Update :
$BTC's options flow has changed as the price soars to new highs, shifting from a euphoric stance to a hedging one..
Spot is holding near $86,220 and dealers are still long gamma, but that cushion is thin, so the calm could break either way. Open interest overall eased back a touch over the last day, and the mix underneath explains why: calls tied to this Friday's expiry are being unwound while puts keep building there and in the weeks that follow (specifically on the 30th Oct), a sign traders are paying for protection rather than chasing the rally. Derive's own block desk backs that up in its own way. Over the last three days, 234 block trades printed for $59.7M in notional, built mostly from call structures, but the overall lean still comes out a touch bearish once you weigh it all up. In plain terms: real size is moving, and it looks more like people hedging than making a big directional bet.
Data & Analysis by @derivativemonky
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Almost all the late longs from the last few days have been washed out, spot is selling at several times less than perps, so i think we'll be pushing up again soon
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Altiorix Trades retweeted
BlackRock is tweeting about 'the growing connection between AI and digital assets' and you are bearish anon?
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85200 is current support, next one is only at 84200. we might test that one too, but after that i'm expecting a move up
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Alex 👽
$BTC
Now i'm waiting for the reaction at 84100, from there you can open longs if this support level holds. if not then price will drop to around 81800-81200 maybe
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I think this plan is quite realistic. If bulls hold above 81200 then everything is fine
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Altiorix Trades retweeted
This is actually what the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) looked like last night
Experts Only
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i missed that trade and i really regret it...
price literally tested the 365d rvwap from above and flew up
happy for those who caught that trade :)
Pay attention to the 365d rvwap on $ENA, when there's acceptance on the higher timeframe above this level you'll be able to open a giga long
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