TESLA AFTER A SPACEX IPO Many analysts assume a static pie — i.e. a scarcity mindset. They think a SpaceX IPO hurts Tesla longterm by splitting Elon’s (and investors’) attention. They somehow forgot that Elon Musk built both Tesla & SpaceX simultaneously to trillion-plus valuations. Tesla has always been volatile, a SpaceX IPO is just this week’s excuse. Traders make money from volatility. These analysts are ALREADY WRONG. Within 3 months of AJ’s doomsday 2/25 analysis, Tesla & SpaceX are deepening a mutually beneficial partnership. This isn’t a zero-sum game. Instead of each company remaining on a trajectory to be an $8 Trillion company, Elon Musk leveled up to a new 100 Trillion market cap goal. Instead of competition between Musk companies and divided loyalty, Elon Musk has tasked Tesla/SpaceX/xAI with one audacious mission: remove the constraint of Earth and its limited resources by kick-starting a true Space Economy flywheel. Digital Optimus, the Terafab and AI Space Compute are just the start. A SpaceX IPO primes the flywheel with initial operating cash. This is the biggest undertaking in human history — an investment opportunity that could exceed today’s Earth economy by 10x, 100x, or even 100,000x. What’s the actual limit once humanity goes galactic? The “Elon Musk community” doesn’t split — it gets stronger as the mission converges. 🧵 Next, don’t ignore the early signals & kick yourself later

Brings back memories of RoboTaxi service area maps…. The gifts that just keep giving.

PROTOTYPE V PRODUCTION SpaceX’s goal is clear: fully reusable production rockets. The next Starship launch is a prototype and test flight, and an important step with the insertion of a real payload into orbit. It also costs an estimated $250 million. A test flight is not an indication of the scaled economics of a factory produced fully reusable Starship. SpaceX is moving from prototypes to scale. How much will costs drop? One data point is Voyager’s Starlab Starship launch contract at $90 million. Competition can’t compete - their costs remain around the prototype cost without reusability and mass factory production. Reuse will change absolutely everything about the developing space economy. Just think how many businesses become viable with this type of decrease in launch costs. SpaceX understands these economics — they created them. Watch the concrete: Starship launch pads being built at Starbase, Florida, and Louisiana. They are the signal.

马斯克一句「命运太爱讽刺了」，把未来泄密了。 彼得·蒂尔当年那句吐槽现在全应验在同一个人身上：我们想要飞行汽车，结果只得到了140个字符。 马斯克先买下Twitter改成X，现在特斯拉下一代Roadster又要用SpaceX冷气推进器实现短暂悬停甚至“飞起来”，10月1日就要揭晓。 当年被当成笑话的未来，如今被同一个人用两家公司同时推进，这波命运安排确实够讽刺啊

The engineering behind Tesla’s Semi redesign Battery: Switched from purchased 2170 cells to in-house 4680s. Less battery mass and fewer kWh, same range, lower cost. Same cells already used in Cybertruck, Model Y and Cybercab. Drivetrain: Steel-caged rotor replaces the earlier carbon-fiber design, which makes it cheaper, more reliable, more efficient as well as lighter. The bar-wound stator is shared with Cybertruck and already built at volume, for better real-world range across weather, terrain and payload. Steering: Fully electric steering drops hydraulic pumps and fluids. Lighter, quieter, more precise and redundant. It also lays the groundwork for autonomy (FSD). Tesla calls it the first Class 8 truck with electric steering, the wider wheel cut gives it a turning radius close to a Model Y. Thermal system: The Megamanifold runs cabin HVAC plus battery and drivetrain heating/cooling. Cabin heat can come from excess powertrain heat instead of being wasted. It’s architecture is shared with Cybercab. Factory: First powder-coated Class 8 truck, no conventional paint shop, which reduces solvent use and painting wastewater. Cybercab also skips a conventional paint shop. The heavy-duty EMS conveyor can carry 39 assembled frames. The battery line is among Tesla’s most automated. Stampings, batteries, drive axles, HV distribution, cooling modules and seats are made in-house. Sparks plant, NV, is sized for 50,000 trucks a year. Operations: Very little maintenance. Tesla reports >98% YTD fleet uptime in 2026. Parts of the pre-trip inspection are automated with electronic logs of completed checks. The driver sits in the center for a clearer view both ways, backed by the same camera suite as Tesla’s cars, hardware that also underpins future autonomy and jackknife prevention. The European spec drops traditional side mirrors and is built on the same Nevada line. A heavy truck that almost drives like a Model Y. Photo: @tesla_semi

Let’s float an idea. Say there were two stocks that were trading at $372 and $148 respectively. An analyst from a major bank comes out with a BANGER of a research report. You check his thesis against the fundamentals. He is RIGHT: Together these companies are a vertically integrated physical AI stack with no competition that can scale globally. The stack is hard to replicate - factories, Starships, AI compute by the GW. Would that be a time to buy? How about if there were signs of Max Fear? How about then? The analyst sees the value doubling mid-term (1-2 years) and an upside of 10-100x. Let’s do the math together, multiply your investment dollars in these companies by: ♦️ 2 ♦️10 ♦️100 Do you like these numbers? Do your own research and come to your own conclusions. Historically companies that own - and define a new industry - that changes the world outperform even these ambitious targets. Ask yourself: Who else has the infrastructure in place to scale REAL WORLD PHYSICAL AI? Who else has the full VERTICAL STACK? Who is in the race for 2,3,4,5? Who is providing the picks & Shovels? (These are also good investments if you want a category bet). What do you think? What did I miss?

🚨🚨 Historic Stock Buying Opportunity Amy hits it out the park, but with these caveats. SpaceX will grow faster in 2027-29. Tesla will grow really fast in 29 and probably catch SpaceX in revenues and profits by 2030. There is real likelihood of a merger. No merger, I'd be heavier SpaceX. Right now, I'm believing merger. I'm 50/50

SpaceX’s Minihard story is about more than building another giant AI data center. It is about turning data-center construction into a repeatable industrial process. INSANITY of completing 500 MW of ai data center every month. The historical parallel is America’s WWII carrier program. Kaiser’s shipyards delivered 50 Casablanca-class escort carriers. USS Munda went from keel laying to commissioning in just 101 days. The breakthrough was a repeatable production system that delivers enormous, complex machines at scale.

I still remember people saying it would just be 10 Cybercabs in a small geofence. Now there are 126.

RT @SPCX100T: Wall Street’s most optimistic estimates for SpaceX $SPCX building data centers still fall short of Musk’s targets. Looks li…

Instead of shipping plastic from Earth, Pioneer Labs wants to make it on Mars from Martian resources. Mars CO₂ + water + electricity can be turned into acetate, which acts as the microbe’s carbon “food“. The bacteria consume it, grow and store PHA/PHB bioplastic inside their cells, similar to how humans store excess energy as fat. The plastic can then be extracted and used for films, parts, or 3D-printed structures. Acetate is also part of the safety mechanism. The microbe depends on a human-supplied carbon source. Stop feeding it and it stops growing. Pioneer also found that Mars’ extreme lack of liquid water rapidly damages the organism outside its protected bioreactor. NASA’s planetary-protection rules aim to prevent forward contamination, so a microbe that cannot survive outside a controlled bioreactor could potentially be allowed. To make it work better with Martian resources, Pioneer used directed evolution, start with a promising Earth microbe, grow many generations under increasingly Mars-like conditions and keep selecting the variants that perform best. Beneficial natural mutations accumulate over time. This is only step one. Pioneer sees a roadmap of roughly five biological capabilities: 1. Bioplastics → building materials 2. Transparent biomaterials → greenhouse structures 3. Perchlorate cleanup → detoxify Martian regolith 4. Soil enrichment → add usable nutrients and organic matter 5. Photosynthesis → eventually produce biomass and oxygen @Pioneer__Labs @erika_alden_d

马斯克刚回ARK 分析师：如果到2030年算力只涨40倍，我会很失望。 40 倍倍？？？？？ ARK那张对数图把SpaceX的主动AI算力画得很清楚： 2025年底才1.1GW（几乎全是地面绿色部分），2026年2.1GW，2027年突然跳到7.5GW，2030年32.6GW，2031年直接66.6GW。紫色轨道算力从2028年才开始真正起量，后面占比越来越大。 40倍已经是超预期加速了，马斯克还嫌低。 这到底是提前布局星地一体算力的野心，还是严重低估电力、散热、发射和供应链约束的妄想？ 你们觉得他这次能兑现吗？ $SPCX

Even this alone makes @DOGE worth it

This is going to be the most epic @Tesla product unveiling of all-time 🤯

Tesla Optimus at several hundred per week. Head to several thousand per week by year end. $TSLA