Anthony Redmond
@AnthonyRedmond_

200+ rental doors, mostly Section 8. Also flips, BRRRRs, new construction. Memphis + Nashville. I post the real numbers: purchase, rehab, rent, refi.

 Nashville, TN
Joined August 2026
The 30 year is at 5.72% this morning. That line is what a retail mortgage sits on top of. Every house I finish gets sold to somebody who has to qualify at whatever that number is by then, and nothing I do to the house changes it.
Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
5h
It just keeps going up
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The part that costs money is the guess. A rehab I start this month lists in the spring, and the buyer pool for a house in the mid 200s depends on where that line sits then. Guess wrong by a point and I either hold it or cut the price.
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A Section 8 unit can fail inspection over a handrail. Not the roof, not the furnace. A loose rail on three steps, and the file goes back in the queue. The family keeps waiting, the house sits empty, and nobody counts that as part of the shortage.
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The re-inspection is the expensive part. You fix the rail the same afternoon and then wait for the inspector to come back around, and that is usually a couple of weeks. Rent doesn't start until he does.
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Apartment vacancy is falling for the first time in nearly five years and absorption is the third highest on record. I don't own apartments. When they fill up my Memphis three bedroom gets the overflow, and the voucher covering it is priced off a rent HUD sets once a year.
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The overflow shows up as applications, not as rent. The payment standard is already set for the year, so a voucher tenant can't pay me more because the apartments got tight. What moves is days on market, and that only helps me the year a lease turns over.
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Markets went from a 75% chance of an October hike to 17% in a few days. I pick a refinance window months before I know any of that. The house comes out of rehab when it comes out of rehab. You get the rate that exists the week the appraiser shows up.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
Oct 2
BREAKING: Market expectations for an October rate hike fall to a new low 17% chance after the weaker than expected September jobs report. Just days ago, markets saw a near 75% chance of an October rate hike. We are seeing some insane volatility in the bond market.
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Seasoning sets the date. Before six months most lenders will only lend against what I paid, and the whole BRRRR depends on the appraised number instead. So a closing date six months back fixes the week, and whatever the ten year does that week I live with for thirty years.
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The new Fair Market Rents went live this morning. The housing authority has three months to move its payment standard to match. Nothing changes on a lease I sign this week. HUD also changed how it inflates the utility piece. The local series it used is being discontinued.
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Memphis sets payment standards by ZIP code, not off the one metro number everybody quotes. Two three bedrooms four miles apart can get approved at different rents. I check which bucket a street is in before I write the offer, not after the inspection.
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They revised three PCE categories this morning and restated the data back to 2021. Portfolio management fees, software, legal services. I don't buy any of those. The revision still reaches me, because it moves what the Fed thinks and the Fed prices my refi.
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The shelter piece of that print is mostly imputed rent. Nobody surveys what a Memphis housing authority will actually pay for a three bedroom. That number gets published once a year, and the 2027 one takes effect tomorrow.
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A Memphis three bedroom used to draw five applications. It draws fifteen now and fewer of them can document the income. When a voucher tenant loses hours the authority recertifies and covers more of the rent. My number doesn't move. The market rate doors are where I find out.
Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
Sep 29
Much of the hard labor data has been fine and even improving. But the % of people who say that it's hard to get a job right now has hit its highest level since early 2021
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The recertification is not automatic. The tenant has to report the change and the authority has to process it, and in Memphis that runs sixty to ninety days. In between they owe a portion they can't pay, and I'm deciding whether to carry it or start a file.
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New Fair Market Rents take effect Thursday. Nobody investing in housing looks at that number. It sets the ceiling a housing authority will pay for a Memphis three bedroom, and it moves once a year whether the market did or not. Thursday I find out what 2027 looks like.
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It doesn't land all at once. The authority sets its payment standard off the new number, then each door only picks it up at that tenant's annual recertification. A raise published Thursday reaches my rent roll over the next twelve months, one lease at a time.
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One point on my refi is about $200 a month on a $300,000 loan, for thirty years. They roll theirs. I have to find mine in a rent roll where the payment standard gets published once a year.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
Sep 25
The last time US Treasury yields were this high, total US national debt stood at just $8.9 trillion. Today, US debt stands at $40.1 trillion. That's +$31.2 trillion more, or over 4.5 TIMES higher. This means every 1 percentage point in the average cost of servicing the debt now translates to ~$401 billion per year in interest expense. In 2007, the same 1 percentage point translated to just ~$89 billion. That’s an additional ~$312 BILLION in annual interest expense for every percentage point increase in borrowing cost. This is a vastly different situation than it was 19 years ago. The bond market matters more now than ever.
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Which is why I keep the seasoning window short. Six months on hard money, refinance, done. The rent side can't chase the rate side inside a year, so the thing that has to move is what I pay for the house. Sellers get to that number about a year late.
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Brent went over $105 this morning. My roofer finds out about that through his fuel card. Last time crude ran like this the shingle price moved in March and his labor number followed in June. The bid I'm holding on a Memphis tear-off is good for thirty days.
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A tear-off on a 1,200 foot Memphis ranch is about $7,500 right now. At $8,600 the rehab budget eats it, because the rent on a Section 8 door is set by a payment standard that gets published once a year. So the number that has to move is what I pay for the house.
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