I'll give you one scenario for how the war in Ukraine could end within the next 12 months.
- The USA allocates $40 billion in military aid to Ukraine, just 0.12% of its GDP.
- The USA tightens sanctions on Russian oil and gas.
- The USA allows Starlink to operate in Russia.
- Belgium releases frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine.
I guarantee you that within a year, Russian export revenues would drop by another 60%, while its budget deficit could grow to $150-200 billion. Russia is already running a deficit of around $80 billion.
russia would simply lose the financial means to continue waging this war at its current scale and would finally have to come to the negotiating table without ultimatums.
This scenario obviously won't happen with Trump in power. But it clearly demonstrates that the USA has the power to help end the largest and bloodiest war in Europe since WW2. It simply chooses not to.
Now, how do you make sure the war doesn't end, but more people die?
- Restrict Starlink for Ukrainian drones.
- Cut intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
- Cut the PURL program that finances American weapons for Ukraine.
The result?
More Ukrainians die. Ukraine continues fighting because surrender is not an option. It looks for alternative sources of support, primarily from Nordic countries, other European partners, and loans.
Russia gets more time to continue its aggression, and Ukraine is forced to fight with fewer resources.
Essentially, this approach achieves absolutely nothing toward ending the war. It only prolongs it, increases casualties, and makes an eventual peace even more expensive.
And the USA has the means to do the exact opposite.