London, DC and sometimes NY
Based in United Kingdom
New @TheEconomist leader from me on the perils of AI writing—and why readers, not writers, are the victims to worry about. (Link ⬇️)
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New @TheEconomist leader from me on housing markets, and the rate shock coming if bond yields stay high. Why house prices may be in trouble economist.com/leaders/2026/0…
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3/ People can, I think, reasonably disagree about whether this is a problem. (I think it is.) But British voters hate it. Public First ran some polling for us, and found that approval of AI writing on the job is lower for politicians than any other profession.
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2/ Among British parties, the Liberal Democrats seem to give the most AI speeches. Labour's number is flattered a bit to the downside, since ministers rarely do. Among backbenchers, it is in second place. The 2024 intake are particularly enthusiastic AI-speechwriting-adopters.
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1/ This is bottom-up, not top-down, and reflects choices MPs (and their staff) are making. I spoke to several. Reactions ran the gamut from denial to defence: "for every half hour saved on speechwriting, 'that is another 30 minutes we can put into supporting my constituents.'"
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My latest for @TheEconomist: AI writing is taking over politics. 10% of what was is said in Parliament is now AI-drafted, per Pangram. Yet more in the House of Representatives, or in Australia and Canada. Link: economist.com/britain/2026/0… And a 🧵 below, w/ some main offenders
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Always happy to see my neighbourhood represented—even if only as one of Washington's most intractable rat hotspots theatlantic.com/science/2026…
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I have news you won’t believe
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AIs cracking short-term superforecasting is such an important (and, still, under-discussed) trend. Via a new piece from @nikostro economist.com/science-and-te…
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Not a good trend! (Though we desperately need better AI-penetration measures that look across models, companies etc)
I am increasingly frustrated about the state of conversation about AI in the UK. It feels like we are in never ending cycles of deluded thinking. Under current trends, Britain will be defenceless against the transformative effects of AI and have no leverage over development at the frontier. We are the most exposed economy to AI in the world. We have very little data centre capacity and few credible plans to expand – and our high energy costs mean we would struggle to even if we tried. I am publishing a paper today on what the UK should do to build that leverage, let the economy capture value from AI and prepare the state to adapt, however AI develops. The three strategies are as follows: 1. Build the infrastructure that gives us leverage. Fix the grid, fix planning, make Britain a place frontier AI can run. 2. Let the economy capture the value of AI. Reform the regulatory, labour and talent barriers that stop British firms adopting AI. 3. Build a state that can adapt to a changing world. Build a tax base that survives the labour market changing, public services that use AI to deliver better, and capacity to weather the upcoming geopolitical storms. Two years ago, we published a similar report on AI - many recommendations of which ended up in the action plan. I remember feeling hopeful, but sadly the fundamental problems facing the country on AI have not shifted. I truly hope that this week of momentum culminates in action. There’s still a narrow path for the UK, but everyday that path is narrowing.
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New frontier of AI writing: broker-slop. Out of diplomacy, shan't say which G-SIB, but, at least one is becoming a serial offender!
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Policy has now been tweaked notes.archie-hall.com/about
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One glimpse into our Coasean future: having never had my Substack's error bounty (cash for spotting mistakes) triggered, received two emails in the past day. Both 100% AI per Pangram, quibbling with arithmetic in old posts. One was way off-base, one did catch some over-rounding
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further phones cpi detail
it's the phones
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it's the phones
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Hardly a novel point, but gosh it was ... audacious ... to start a war that did this to inflation right before the midterms
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Almost the first! India’s IT sector is surviving artificial intelligence economist.com/finance-and-ec… from The Economist
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"Central banking has a forbidding future" Some post-Jackson-Hole ruminations from me in this weekend's @TheEconomist economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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One part of the American labour market is heating up
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The peril of bond yields being at records is that every move up, even a small one, breaks a new record. Moves today are decent-sized but not mad (e.g. only 3bps on 10-Yr Treasuries), and yet...
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The question Warsh's Jackson Hole speech prompts: is this transparency a one-off that the market boxed him into, or a regime change to his regime change?
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Big flattening on Warsh's speech
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Aand it's back
Look at the 30 year!
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Repricing visible in betting markets too
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Appreciable repricing
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Look at the 30 year!
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A Warsh speech mostly spent reaffirming his preference against over-communications, explicit reaction functions (and certainly forward guidance). And then a reaction-function-shaped hawkish steer on current conditions. Which the market appears to have heard pretty clearly.
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The core anxiety that the past week's bond-market drama has made more concrete:
"America will regret Scott Bessent's bond-market misadventures". New @TheEconomist leader from me, on whether America has just taken a first, tentative step towards a politicised Treasury market and financial repression. You can read here: economist.com/leaders/2026/0…
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France's brutal repricing continues
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Deutsche Bank finds that Britain is the country most exposed to AI disruption. (Of course, many are saying this...! notes.archie-hall.com/p/brit…)
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Quite the intervention by Druckenmiller. Also, it's worth noting, entirely AI-generated. ("If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice.") pangram.com/history/f71ed8ae…
Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally. "I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left." "Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination." "Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets." "If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit." wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond…
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Not quite on the American scale, but Britain does seem to be having its own 2000s-style digital infrastructure boom.
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Gold-Bitcoin correlation near record highs. (1-year correlation of daily changes)
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Another rodeo for the debasement trade
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Underrated story: the Trump admin seeming to use Fannie and Freddie to push mortgage spreads down. (Some of the recent decline also reflects falling bond vol, of course.) Discussed more here: economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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Replying to @alz_zyd_
Debasement trade, no?
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Phenomenal chart of LinkedIn profile retrospective-edits
People are going into their previous job descriptions on Linkedin and adding "A.I." while removing "D.E.I." and "remote work." nber.org/papers/w35546
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Weekend read from me on the shenanigans on the Treasury market—and the problems Scott Bessent is dumping on Kevin Warsh Link: economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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Same chart for gold, also not massively reassuring
Striking dollar market action
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Is Warsh talking up the term premium?
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Striking dollar market action
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I’ve seen ratios you people wouldn’t believe, on the BlueSky crosspost for this
BRITAIN WOULD BE BONKERS TO DITCH PALANTIR New @TheEconomist leader from me on Palantir. I most wanted to highlight the troubling illiberal turn by its critics. Two points to make: 1/ The substance of the political objections to Palantir—what parliament's science committee called a "clear mismatch with UK values"— is pretty thin. That committee mainly cited Palantir's work with the American government (a democratically-elected British ally) and Peter Thiel's criticism of "the concept of a national health service". 2/ Even litigating those specifics misses the point. Applying political litmus tests to pick which businesses the government contracts with is plainly illiberal, and has more in common with MAGA's anti-ESG turn, say, than the norms that usually govern British public life. I'm not sure what use there is in "UK values" so blasé about Britain's hard-won liberal principles. Lots in the leader too on lock-in, tech sovereignty and more. You can read it here: economist.com/leaders/2026/0…
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Agree with this from @Petercontibrown-- for all Warsh's language about regime change, keeping institutional stability at the Fed will probably be the defining challenge for him, as post-pandemic inflation was for Powell. petercontibrown.substack.com…
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Nice chart on central bank comms reforms reducing vol
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The scale of the drop in Trump's approval relative to his first term is getting pretty glaring
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Weak tariff revenues (due in large part to IEEPA being struck down) this year have pulled deficits up by ~10%, CBO finds
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Good walkthrough of what a table-stakes AI setup should look like these days
A few months ago some folks called to fire me for my blasphemous thoughts on AI. Others privately DM'd me for my setup (sometimes the same people). So I wrote it up: a practical guide to AI for public engagement, useful even if you don't plan to outsource a word of your writing.
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Notable downward shift in the revised trajectory of payrolls
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One place AI adoption is already here: a deluge of slop is beginning to shred state capacity, @mattholehouse writes. Courts and the government may need to learn to be less friendly to survive. economist.com/britain/2026/0…
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Perhaps unsurprisingly, I think this is bang on erichgrunewald.com/posts/why…
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Wallis Simpson and Upton Sinclair were cousins?!
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