In the spring of 1241 Europe stood on the edge of the abyss. In two days the Mongols landed two crushing blows: in the north they broke a combined Polish and German force at Legnica, and in the south the main army under Batu and Subutai destroyed the Hungarian army at Mohi. The road to Vienna lay open. Yet in the spring of 1242 the unbeatable army suddenly broke camp and went back east.
For a long time this retreat had one textbook explanation: the death of the Great Khan Ögedei. On that reading Batu turned back to take part in choosing the next ruler (though in fact he settled on the Volga and never showed up at the kurultai).
Modern climate research points somewhere else. Europe was saved by mud, and high politics had little to do with it.
After several dry years, early 1242 turned cold and wet. The Great Hungarian Plain, a perfect base for cavalry, became one vast swamp once the spring floods came.
For the Mongol army this was a supply disaster:
- Flooded pastures left hundreds of thousands of horses without feed (every warrior had three to five spare mounts).
- Soft ground ruled out fast manoeuvre, the nomads' main tactic.
- Siege engines, needed against Europe's stone castles, could not be hauled through the bogs.
It looks as though Europe was saved by the weather, and the khan's death came second. The weather took from the best army in the world its strongest card: speed.