Goldman maintains its gold price target of $5,400/oz by late 2027 despite recent Fed rate hikes. > The bank believes monetary tightening will merely delay the gold rally, maintaining a predominantly bullish stance on the metal. > Up to three rate cuts are expected between September 2027 and March 2028, bringing the benchmark policy rate down to the 3.25–3.50% range. > Central bank purchases currently average 91 tonnes/month—well above the pre-2022 average of 17 t/month—and remain the primary catalyst. > Meanwhile, call-option positioning remains elevated, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability across G10 economies. > If gold prices continue to appreciate on the back of strong CBs demand and elevated calls positioning, dealer hedging could mechanically amplify the rally. $GLD $IAU $GDX

Drill, baby, drill. The strong performance of the hydrocarbons sector in Argentina has been driven by the development of Vaca Muerta. Oil production has increased by more than 30% relative to its end-2023 level, and the addition of further midstream capacity could become another catalyst for the sector next year and beyond (the VMOS pipeline is expected to come online in mid-2027). The stronger results are also evident in the trade balance, which has additionally benefited from higher oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.- GS $PAM $VIST $YPF #VacaMuerta #Oil #Argentina

MS Gold/Silver Outlook #Gold $GLD $SLV $GDX

The conversation on calls changed from capex spend to monetization and FCF generation, as energy constraints on AI buildout and pricing pressures raises. Key takeaways from earnings transcripts. > Management teams continue to raise forward guidance, with 'raise guidance' mentions reaching new highs (~25% of transcripts). > The AI buildout shows no signs of letting up. The majority of mentions center around capacity but there’s a growing number of discussions around ROI and monetization of capex spend. > Mentions of 'ROI' and 'monetization' rose q/q as management teams field more questions on payback from AI investment. > Data center and energy mentions keep climbing as power availability becomes the binding constraint on the buildout. > Capex growth remains strong but all eyes on when growth will peak > Cost and input price mentions are elevated but appear manageable for now. Many corporates are flagging risk from sustained pricing pressures. > Recession and end-of-cycle language remains subdued, with few companies flagging fear of a near-term downturn. #AI #Hyperscaelers

The cost of "AI intelligence" is collapsing at an unprecedented pace, with access to large language models becoming as cheap in just three years as PCs did over a 15‑year cycle. Since 2022, the price per million tokens on leading models has dropped over 90%, and that’s before accounting for big quality improvements, which make effective intelligence even cheaper. At the same time, hyperscalers are on track to spend around $700–760 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, with total AI CapEx likely exceeding $5 trillion by decade’s end. When your product’s price falls 90%, you need usage to explode just to keep the economics stable; if price erosion outruns demand growth, the payback on that CapEx gets pushed far out. AI semis and infra stocks are effectively a leveraged bet that demand will outpace collapsing prices — if that assumption breaks, the whole AI trade’s valuation needs to reset. For the U.S., this isn’t just about margins; AI is framed as an existential race with China, which means a politically driven reluctance to slow infrastructure spending. The real constraint won’t be money, but physics: power grids, land, permits, chips, memory, and the ability to turn trillions in CapEx into working compute at scale.

China is increasingly using rare earths as a strategic weapon rather than just an export business. By restricting shipments of heavy rare earths and magnets to Japan after political tensions over Taiwan, Beijing signaled it is willing to weaponize its near‑monopoly over critical minerals that feed autos, chips and defense supply chains. Now foreign firms using Chinese rare earths or tech face Chinese licensing to export their own products. Recent dual‑use export bans and tighter controls on elements like dysprosium, yttrium and gallium show how China can exert pressure without firing a shot, forcing importers to accelerate diversification and rethink their industrial security strategies. As a reminder, Beijing still controls ~90% of global rare earth refining capacity.

MS Copper outlook > Impact of U.S. tariffs: COMEX copper is expected to outperform if U.S. copper import tariffs are announced with delayed implementation, or if a decision on tariffs is postponed. Conversely, completely ruling out the possibility of tariffs would pose downside risk to its price. > LME copper outlook: Copper traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) could also be pulled higher by any announcement of U.S. tariffs. > Copper demand in China has remained resilient despite elevated prices. Although the metal’s supply faces challenges, the market is projected to loosen in 2027 due to lower U.S. purchases. $CPER $COPX #Copper #Mining

J.P. Morgan highlights four key developments in Argentina’s economy: 1. Central Bank Reform The Milei administration has submitted a bill to Congress to reform the Central Bank’s (BCRA) Organic Charter. The proposal aims to strengthen the institution’s independence, eliminate fiscal dominance, and focus the BCRA on a single mandate: preserving the value of the currency. Key measures include banning direct financing of the Treasury, restricting profit transfers, and making it more difficult to remove Central Bank board members. 2. External Accounts Remain in Surplus Argentina recorded a US$0.8 billion cash-basis current account surplus in June, bringing the first-half 2026 surplus to US$2.9 billion. Strong exports and an improving services balance helped offset higher import payments and continued profit remittances abroad. 3. Reserve Accumulation Resumed After a decline in June, international reserves increased again in July: * Gross reserves rose by approximately US$4.3 billion during the month. * The BCRA purchased US$2.2 billion in foreign exchange, marking the largest July FX purchase since records began in 2003. * J.P. Morgan estimates that Argentina has already achieved the IMF’s full-year 2026 net reserve accumulation target. 4. Inflation Outlook The bank’s high-frequency indicators suggest that July CPI will come in at around 1.9% month-over-month, unchanged from June. While winter vacation-related spending put upward pressure on some categories, food inflation remained relatively contained. J.P. Morgan notes some upside risk following a stronger-than-expected inflation reading in Buenos Aires City. Bottom Line J.P. Morgan’s assessment remains broadly constructive on Argentina. The report emphasizes progress on institutional reforms, continued external surpluses, strong reserve accumulation, and inflation that remains relatively stable, although short-term upside risks persist. $ARGT #Argentina #BCRA #Inflation #Milei

Focus on the Strait of Hormuz is shifting to South America. The U.S. is negotiating a massive agreement that could place 17 Venezuelan oil fields that require billions of dollars in investment under 100-year leases operated by U.S. oil companies. Meanwhile, Caracas has discussed a possible exit from OPEC with U.S. officials, as sources says no final decision has been made. Venezuela currently pumps about 1.16 Mbpd and holds no active OPEC quota, meaning any deal would add barrels without cutting into cartel-managed supply. So the logic for Washington is to lock in a huge reserve base close to home, add non-Middle East barrels to the market, and dilute OPEC's pricing power in one move. This comes amid ongoing global oil supply disruptions, with countries scrambling to secure new, reliable, long-term energy sources. The historic deal would more than double U.S. oil reserves by drawing from a country that has the world's largest proven reserves, according to Axios. $USO $XOM $CVX #OOTT #Venezuela #OPEC