Bitcoin is near $84K after a sharp rally. Buy now or wait for a pullback that may never come? In Market State Report #3, we examine what our market regime model, Weekly Engine, has confirmed so far and what further confirmation it needs. We then assess the risk of buying now through history: how Bitcoin behaved during S&P 500 corrections since 2010. The sample covers 22 episodes, including the March 2020 crash and the 2022 decline. Inside, we share our view on entering the market now and the potential drawdown to consider before buying. Read the analysis before deciding whether to buy👇 substack.com/@adlerscryptoin…

On August 20, the Adjusted MVRV 30DMA/365DMA ratio crossed above its own 365-day moving average. At that point, the market entered the Early Bull phase. BTC was trading at $71,255 that day. The Early Bull phase lasted 31 days, during which Bitcoin gained 13%. On September 20, the ratio broke above the 1.0 Base Line, meaning the short-term MVRV average moved above the annual one. With that crossover, the market entered the Bull phase at a price of $80,691. The ratio currently stands at 1.018, with BTC at $84,156. The structure remains bullish as long as the ratio holds above 1.0. Since 2012, this is the sixth Early Bull -> Bull transition. In four of the previous five cases, the Bull phase ended above the entry price. The exception was August 2015: the Bull phase lasted just 16 days before the market fell back into Early Bull, then re-entered Bull in October and resumed its advance.

Despite the rate hike, high bond yields, the ongoing oil crisis, persistent inflation risk and the Bitget hack, Bitcoin looks really strong.

How Bitcoin Reacted to the Bitget Hack - Infographic

In today's Morning Brief, we look at how Bitcoin reacted to the $351M Bitget hack. axeladlerjr.com/how-bitcoin-…

About the Bitget Protection Fund 🛡️ The Bitget Protection Fund exists for moments like this. It holds 5,500 BTC, approximately $464M at current prices. All fund wallet addresses are public and can be verified on-chain by anyone, at any time. The fund is designated to protect user assets against platform-wide threats such as cybersecurity incidents. Losses from this hot wallet incident after assessment will be borne by the Protection Fund. We will replenish the fund. Details and coverage terms will be announced separately.

the realized price is broken yes but there is a fix: weights the key is to keep only a portion of each cohort using on-chain activity, which fixes many metrics, including the realized price while they aren't magical, they auto adjust and are the next iteration of on-chain data

I'm bullish regardless.

Brent crude rose above $105 a barrel, extending gains from the previous session amid uncertainty over U.S. - Iran talks.

Bitcoin held on to most of its gains over the past week and is trading around $84K. But Bitcoin Regime Score has returned to neutral, while Confidence has fallen to 22%. What does a neutral signal mean when price is holding its gains? I break it down in the latest Morning Brief 👇 axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-held…

Don't know who needs to hear this but the US 10yr yield is back above 5% again...

Happy Wednesday.

The market rallied from 81.5K to 87K on strong bull pressure, with futures traders actively opening longs and closing shorts. Since the peak, pressure has turned moderately bearish, but price is holding around 86.6K for now and the bears are getting nowhere - in other words, selling is being absorbed so far.

Brent crude slipped to $99 a barrel, falling for a sixth straight session. Prices are under pressure from signs of progress in renewed US-Iran talks, along with ongoing efforts to restore a key Saudi Arabian oil pipeline.

Market context explained visually.

In August, Bitcoin's long-term holders came close to slipping into the red. Now bitcoin sits 37% above their average purchase price. In under three months price is up 46%, and the deepest correction along the way was just 6%. Will pullbacks stay this shallow as the rally continues? Full breakdown in Morning Brief #263👇 axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-3…

bitcoin:native: LTH Realized Supply Z-Score Nears Neutral Bitcoin’s LTH Realized Supply 365-day Z-Score has fallen to roughly +0.33, down from a 2026 peak near +5 and a later rebound around +3.5. The 365-day Z-Score tracks how far LTH Realized Supply sits from its one-year statistical norm. At +0.33, the metric is only modestly above that baseline, meaning the statistical excess behind the earlier 2026 expansion has largely faded. Historically, negative readings have often appeared after elevated LTH supply conditions normalize, during repair, consolidation, and early-trend phases of the Bitcoin cycle. A move below zero would not confirm a bull market. It would indicate that LTH Realized Supply has fallen below its trailing 365-day norm — a condition observed in both constructive and sideways market environments. Key takeaway: The 2026 LTH Realized Supply expansion has largely normalized. A move below zero would complete that reset and, in the current STH repair context, would lean constructive — provided demand keeps confirming it.

US spot BTC ETFs attracted 11.53K BTC yesterday. This is the largest daily Netflow since November 11, 2024 (12.56K BTC), i.e. in almost two years. axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitco…

Brent fell 3.4% yesterday to $100.34 per barrel. Supply concerns have eased: Saudi Arabia is restoring exports, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising. According to CENTCOM, oil and LNG shipments through the strait reached a six-month high over the past two weeks. Satellite data show that over the past six days Saudi Arabia shipped an average of 2.9 million b/d through Hormuz, compared with 0.7 million b/d in August. Overall vessel traffic through the strait, however, remains well below pre-war levels.

Infographic on the current market setup.