We have published our major new report, the Broken Coalition, detailing the Value and Identity Clans of Great Britain! 🗳️📝 This research highlights the fragmentation of voter coalitions from the 2019 election to May 2024 and which parties could potentially win from this If you'd like to read more insights and analysis, you can find the full report at this link: lnkd.in/eyyVFjhy

NEW: @BMGResearch poll for @theipaper. Labour lead at 5 points as Green and Lib Dems slip back. Restore at 7%. 🌹 LAB: 28% (+1)
⏩ RFM: 23% (=)
🌳 CON: 20% (+2)
🟢 GRN: 9% (-2)
🔶 LDM: 8% (-2)
🔵 RST: 7% (+2)
🟡 SNP: 3% (=) 23-24 Sep 2026. Changes vs 25-26 Aug. 🧵👇

NEW: @BMGResearch polling for @theipaper finds little appetite for handing Harry and Meghan’s security bill to taxpayers. - 63% paid for privately - 18% split the cost between the taxpayer and the couple - 6% back full funding by the UK taxpayer - 13% don’t know

Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 27% (-1) RFM: 23% (=) CON: 18% (-2) GRN: 12% (+2) LDM: 10% (=) RES: 5% (New) SNP: 3% (=) Via @BMGResearch, 25-26 Aug. Changes w/ 28-30 Jul.

Who's trusted most to handle immigration is a good illustration of challenges facing Reform. Much written about the Burnham bounce on issues like cost of living. But both Labour and Restore are eating into their lead.

They could pose bigger threat. A striking 51% of current Reform backers would consider voting Restore. Doesn’t mean they will. And lots of Restore voters equally say they may consider voting Reform. But highlights the battle to be won for control of the “right bloc”.

Restore on 5% is a big headache for Reform. Reform's "core" vote is splintering - 10% of those who backed Farage in 2024 now back Rupert Lowe's Restore. They also take a decent share of voters who say they didn't vote last time.

Badenoch has good net satisfaction ratings, but no evidence translating into vote share. Looking at our consideration trend we see barely any movement in 2026 despite her satisfaction score climbing. Chart combines VI and then considerers as % share of all Britons.

On leadership ratings, Farage recovers somewhat but is still some way behind. Burnham remains the most popular leader.

Long-term trend shows a bit of stability after Burnham bounce. Reform remain behind Labour by more than the margin of error.

NEW: @BMGResearch poll for @theipaper. Labour hold a 4-point lead. 🌹 LAB: 27% (-1)
⏩ RFM: 23% (=)
🌳 CON: 18% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 12% (+2)
🔶 LDM: 10% (=)
🔵RST: 5% (NEW)
🟡 SNP: 3% (=) 25-26 Aug. Now prompted, Restore on 5%. Equivelant to c. 1.5 million voters. 🧵👇

Exclusive: Neil Kinnock's has urged @andyburnham to increase tax on assets as a new @BMGResearch poll reveals two-thirds of voters back the introduction of a “wealth tax”. Story link in tweet below👇

The shifting dynamics between the blocs show up in who now owns the issues. Under Burnham, Labour lead on all but two - with their lead growing most this month on: 🏠 Housing: 26% (+10) 🏥 NHS: 26% (+7) 👴 Social care: 24% (+7) 💼 Unemployment: 24% (+7) 🚨 Crime: 22% (+7)

Burnham starts as PM with a +5 satisfaction rating. This is higher than Starmer ever managed as prime minister in our series. Farage and Polanski both fall to new lows. 🌹 Burnham: +5 (new) 🌳 Badenoch: −1 (+2) 🔶 Davey: −7 🟢 Polanski: −22 (−7) ⏩ Farage: −26 (−10)

The first time Labour has led our series since March 2025 (and that was marginal).

NEW: Poll for @theipaper 🧵Our latest VI shows Burnham’s Labour open up a 5-point lead. 🌹 LAB: 28% (+5) ⏩ RFM: 23% (-4) 🌳 CON: 20% (=) 🔶 LDM: 10% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 10% (-3) 🟡 SNP: 3% (=)

Will Labour get a "Burnham bounce"? My analysis of the polling we did at BMG for The i: with Burnham as Labour leader, the party edges ahead of Reform for the first time in over a year. open.substack.com/pub/robert…