Interesting price action all around. $BTC Needs to work through what to think about the bond market before exploding higher, but that could mean time and/or a move down first. I'm impartial in the short term but extremely confident in the long term. $ASST & $MSTR charts for fun.

Am I a conspiracy theorist if I suggest that there could be some insider knowledge pushing the price up ahead of an announcement coming tomorrow morning? Not saying it has to be the case - $ASST is simply the cleanest expression of amplified $BTC.

We are early in the day yet, but so far we have have had a retest and continuation on the daily. Arguably the biggest macro story worth watching right now. #US10Y

One year ago today, I wrote this after Charlie Kirk was murdered. Two days later, Strive became a public company. It was one of the biggest moments of my professional life, and yet I could not get my mind off Charlie, his family, and what his life had meant to mine. If you look back at what I was talking about publicly during those days, it was mostly about Charlie, because that was where my mind and heart were, and it felt inauthentic to spend that moment talking only about Strive. During COVID, my wife and I were living in Northern California. @GavinNewsom had deemed churches “non-essential” and ordered them closed while “peaceful protests” were encouraged. In May 2020, @destinyrocklin church, which was close to where we lived at the time, opened its doors in defiance of those orders. We believed at the time that its pastor could potentially be arrested for taking that stand. He did not care, and neither did the people who filled that building, including my wife and me. We were there because church is essential and because nothing is more important than our faith in Christ. We had never been to Destiny and probably never would have walked through its doors that weekend without Charlie. We heard on The Charlie Kirk Show that he would be there supporting the church, so my wife and I went. We found a church full of Christians on fire for God, unafraid to live their faith publicly, and that experience helped set my family on the Christian journey we have been on ever since. It also directly gave my wife and me the conviction to take a stand against the ramifications of ESG and DEI, which we came to believe represented not only breaches of fiduciary duty, but a broader cultural movement increasingly hostile to Christian conviction. We would not be where we are in our Christian journey without Charlie, and I am certain I would not be at Strive without Charlie Kirk. When Strive was founded in 2022, Charlie was a seed investor. He supported Strive from the beginning in its fight against ESG and DEI, and he was excited about Strive’s evolution into a Bitcoin-focused company. Charlie understood that these fights were about much more than markets or business, and his energy and conviction were unmistakable. I spend a lot of time talking about Bitcoin, the debt crisis, markets and Strive, and I have always promised myself that I will be authentic about what is actually on my mind and speak what I believe to be true. I could not live my life any other way. Make no mistake about what sits beneath all of it for me: Christ comes first. My faith is my foundation, my inspiration and ultimately my why. Charlie blessed this country with an extraordinary amount of energy during a tragically short life. It is fitting to me that his final book was about honoring the Sabbath. Of all the subjects Charlie could have chosen to write about, his final message pointed people back toward God. A year later, what I wrote that day remains true: Charlie changed my family’s life, and his legacy lives on in our home and in countless others. We will never forget Charlie Kirk.

It's like watching the death of fiat in a slow-motion train crash.

Among the best follows on X 💪

Haven't posted $BTC, $MSTR, and $ASST charts in a while through the recent volitility, but this is the chart that keeps me mega-bullish as I anticipate the money printer really heating up: #US10Y

"Okay bond yields, should I have said something stronger than 'more than double' the money printing buy backs? No problem, the money printer has no limits." - Bessent thinking as he sips his coffee this morning.

I have believed for more than a decade that the U.S. Dollar Index, DXY, is in a structural decline that is likely to continue. I also think we may now be approaching a much more significant leg lower, and that has major implications for Bitcoin. If that view is right, the next five to seven years could be a materially more bullish environment for Bitcoin than anything it has experienced in its history. This chart goes back to the late 1960s. What makes it so compelling to me is not just the technical picture of lower highs and lower lows that has developed over roughly 45 years, but that the technical picture is supported by the fundamentals behind it. I spent much of my career thinking about those fundamentals, including while managing the U.S. Treasury portfolio at CalPERS. That was before I became a Bitcoiner, but the work directly contributed to it. The trajectory of federal debt and deficits, the risks embedded in long-duration Treasuries, and the policy incentives created by an increasingly indebted sovereign all pointed me toward the same conclusion: the dollar was in structural decline. More than a decade later, that thesis has remained remarkably unchanged. The debt burden is dramatically larger today, fiscal deficits remain enormous, and policymakers continue to face the same basic tradeoffs. They can accept the pain through materially higher real rates and tighter financial conditions, or they can try to manage that pain through lower real rates, maintaining market liquidity, nominal growth, and some degree of currency depreciation. There is no painless path. The question is simply where the adjustment gets absorbed. That matters enormously for Bitcoin. Each of Bitcoin’s major bull runs has coincided with meaningful dollar weakness. DXY fell from roughly 103 to 88 during the 2017 run, declined from around 103 toward 89 during the 2020-2021 cycle, and then weakened from roughly 108 during the 2025 move that helped take Bitcoin to new all-time highs before the current 2026 bear market. Those were meaningful moves, but they were still relatively modest compared with the major dollar declines of the last 45 years. The breakdown beginning in the mid-1980s lasted for years, as did the decline from the early 2000s into the Global Financial Crisis. My base case is that we are approaching another multi-year move lower in the dollar, potentially over the next three to seven years, with a real possibility that DXY eventually challenges the 2008 lows around 70. If that happens, Bitcoin would be entering a macro environment it has never experienced before. Its previous bull markets have benefited from periods of dollar weakness, but never from a true secular breakdown in the dollar of the kind this chart suggests is possible. Today is an interesting day to post this chart because the Treasury announced that it is at least doubling liquidity-support buyback operations in 10-to-30-year Treasuries. That comes as long-term Treasury yields have been under significant pressure, and the dollar has moved sharply lower today. To me, this is simply another data point in a thesis that has been playing out largely as I expected for more than a decade. The fiscal constraints are greater, the debt load is larger, and the policy incentives are becoming more obvious. None of that weakens the original thesis. It strengthens my conviction in it. That is also why I think people are not bullish enough on Bitcoin over the next five to seven years. Most Bitcoin forecasts are based on what Bitcoin has already done, but Bitcoin has never had the tailwind of a genuine secular dollar breakdown. We are used to saying that past results are not indicative of future performance because the future may be worse than the past. In this case, I think the asymmetry may run the other way. It is also why I am so focused on amplifying Bitcoin exposure, and why I joked yesterday about feeling under-amplified. If this 45-year dollar structure finally breaks to the downside, the macro backdrop for Bitcoin could be materially more powerful than anything it has experienced before. TLDR: YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH.

In exchange for the chance to win $10,000, reply with #MonthlyMillionaire and repost this before August 26, 11:59 ET. Great deal. T&Cs apply.

$STRC max gain: up to par. $BTC (and quality treasury companies) max gain: infinity. I'm willing to leave the first on the table for the second.

I think it's fun to be on the record, so I'm going to announce my contrarian call that #Clarity is passing by Monday.

$BTC chilling near the 200W again. $MSTR lazily doing nothing. $STRC broke a downtrend, which is bullish for the whole $BTC ecosystem if $MSTR and $ASST can be back to big regular purchasing weeks. $ASST Also broke downtrend, looking great from here.

$MSTR looks a lot different than the $ASST chart. Just a casual downward sloping channel to grind us sideways as we wait for $BTC to make a move or $STRC to find it's way back to par. Earnings call Thursday is another potential relevant event, but not expecting any major changes.

A lot going on in my daily chart that I intentionally left in, and a zoomed out monthly with one line and the channel for context. The point I want to make is... expect volitility to tick higher into/through the weekend, especially with other macro conditions they way they are.

I know bonds are boring, but why aren't more people talking about this? #US10Y