Okay, fuck it, I'm gonna give you some breadcrumbs.
1- Football is a sport where variance plays a big role, just as in life. Without it, you could predict every football match result with 100% accuracy.
2- Usain Bolt is the fastest man alive. Has he won every race he's competed in? No, because of variance.
3- Every cerebral player uses a lens through which they make their analysis. That lens can skew their perspective: for example, Hugo with Suitability theory, Hiiragi and his fortune-telling thing, Karasu and his path of least resistance toward the goal.
4- When a cerebral player also has superior talent that shows up visibly on the field, what the player can "see" gets even more limited. For example, Hugo would never worry about missing a pass because his mind doesn't go there. He knows he's that good.
5- Geniuses like Rin and Loki, and superior, talented learners like Sae and Hugo, can instinctively react to luck, but they don't consciously factor it in. The reason is simple. They are too good. Factoring in luck is for "weaklings."
6- Luck is always a matter of hindsight being 20/20. When Aiku stopped Onazi, even though Onazi awakened, was Aiku lucky, or was he somewhat prepared for that possibility?
7- Yoichi Isagi is a player who fights in a den of monsters, and compared to them, he is utterly limited physically and technically. This is why Isagi has no other choice but to be aware of what others cannot even be aware of.
8- The strong see the glass as almost full because they can fill it up even more. The weak see the glass half full and half empty and account for both. To the casuals, it looks like luck, but to Isagi, it is preparation. Just like Ego said back in chapter 87, if you consider it bad luck to have pigeons shit on you, you could have avoided it if you'd been aware of your surroundings. Still no guarantee, but you account for the possibility.
It's not luck if a player has contingency plans for contingency plans. It's preparation meeting opportunity.