My fellow Nigerians, please read this to the end.
Today, as Nigeria marks 66 years of independence, I cannot begin with celebration, when so many homes begin their mornings with calculations of survival? Somewhere, a mother is staring into a pot and calculating what the family can afford to eat.
Somewhere, a father has received his salary but knows that food, transportation, electricity, rent and school fees have already swallowed it. Somewhere, a farmer is afraid of the road to his own farmland. Somewhere, a graduate is carrying another file of unanswered applications. Before we fly the green-and-white flag, let us ask a harder question: what does independence mean when millions still struggle for the elementary dignity of survival?
They told us removing fuel subsidy would save the country and build infrastructure. Instead, petrol prices multiplied, transportation costs climbed and the shock travelled through almost every part of the economy. The World Bank itself concluded that subsidy removal tripled retail petrol prices in 2023, followed by another increase of roughly 50% through early October 2024, while acknowledging the intense pressure these reforms placed on households and businesses.
What exactly are we celebrating when basic survival has become a daily struggle for millions? Reform cannot be measured only by what government saves. It must also be measured by what citizens receive for their sacrifice.
Then look at the naira. In May 2023, the official exchange rate was around ₦460 to the dollar. Exchange-rate unification was intended to eliminate distortions, but the subsequent depreciation also produced substantial knock-on effects on prices, something the World Bank itself acknowledges. Currency depreciation is not merely a number crawling across a television screen. It enters the pharmacy through imported medicine. It enters the factory through machinery and raw materials. It enters the spare-parts market. It enters school fees. Eventually it enters the Nigerian kitchen. Our mothers carry more naira into the market and return with fewer goods. That is what depreciation looks like when statistics acquire human faces.
Speech without action cannot fill a hungry stomach. We are tired of hearing promises of "Renewed Hope" while hunger remains widespread across the land. The World Bank estimates that 69.6% of Nigerians lived below the lower-middle-income poverty line in 2025, while 50.8%, about 123 million human beings, lived in extreme poverty. Think about that number. One hundred and twenty-three million Nigerians. These are not decimal points. They are mothers, fathers and children. How do you tell a family struggling to afford food to raise a flag and pretend that independence has reached their dining table?
Consider electricity. Band A tariffs were sharply increased in 2024, with NERC's records showing tariffs around ₦200 per kWh for some Band A categories later that year. NERC itself says Band A customers are supposed to receive a minimum of 20 hours of electricity daily. So the Nigerian welder, tailor, barber and small manufacturer paying those tariffs has every right to demand the corresponding service. When a business pays an electricity bill and then buys fuel to generate its own electricity, something is profoundly wrong with the economics of production. Independence should mean increasing our capacity to produce, not teaching entrepreneurs how to survive unreliable infrastructure.
Every October 1, government speaks about economic recovery, yet Nigeria carries substantial domestic and external debt. Debt itself is not evil. Serious countries borrow to finance productive infrastructure. The question is what tomorrow's Nigerians inherit alongside today's liabilities. If our children inherit railways, reliable electricity, industries, schools and hospitals, they inherit assets alongside the debt. But if they inherit obligations without productive assets capable of paying for them, then future generations have been handed a bill they were never present to approve.
The administration continuously asks citizens to endure temporary pain and make sacrifices for the country. But Nigerians are entitled to ask whether sacrifice is being visibly shared. A mother reducing meals understands sacrifice. A civil servant walking part of the journey to work understands sacrifice. A businessman watching operating costs consume his capital understands sacrifice. Leadership requires leading by example. Austerity loses moral authority whenever ordinary people believe those imposing it are protected from its consequences.
How do we celebrate more than six decades of independence when farmers in parts of the North cannot safely cultivate their own land? Food security becomes impossible when agricultural communities live under banditry, kidnapping and insurgency. A farmer driven from his land is not merely another security statistic. He is tomorrow's reduction in food production. He is tomorrow's higher market price. He is tomorrow's hungry household. When those who feed the country are afraid, eventually the whole country eats the consequences.
Our brightest doctors, engineers, nurses, researchers and technology workers continue to seek opportunities abroad. Migration itself is not a national tragedy. Nigerians have travelled and prospered across the world for generations. The tragedy begins when leaving becomes less an adventure than an escape from limited opportunity. A nation that educates talented young people but cannot create enough productive opportunities for them risks transferring the return on its educational investment to other economies.
Our public universities continue to confront serious pressures around funding, infrastructure, staffing and affordability. An inadequately educated population cannot sustain an independent economy, no matter how inspiring an Independence Day speech sounds. The child of a poor Nigerian may possess the mind of a world-class scientist, surgeon or engineer. But intelligence does not pay fees, repair laboratories or provide research funding. Every brilliant child denied opportunity is productive capacity Nigeria voluntarily throws away.
True independence relies on strong, trustworthy democratic institutions. When citizens lose confidence in electoral processes or judicial institutions, democracy becomes weaker. Elections must not merely be conducted. Citizens must believe that lawful votes count, institutions act impartially and political disagreements can be resolved peacefully. Self-government means little if citizens stop trusting the mechanisms through which they choose those who govern them.
Our subnational governments must also answer questions. Higher FAAC transfers have strengthened state revenues and capital spending, but the World Bank says outcomes remain uneven and dependence on federal transfers has increased. State leaders cannot simply blame Abuja while Abuja tells Nigerians to wait for benefits to trickle down. Nigerians should ask every governor and local government chairman: what did you receive, what did you spend, and what changed in my community? Accountability must travel from the Presidential Villa to every Government House and local-government headquarters.
We were promised that painful reforms would yield macroeconomic stability. Here, we must tell the whole truth. Inflation has fallen substantially from its earlier peak, the external position has strengthened and reserves have improved. Those are real gains. But the same World Bank says 123 million Nigerians lived in extreme poverty in 2025, while its projections still place poverty at extraordinarily high levels. So the question is not whether macroeconomic indicators matter. They do. The question is when macroeconomic recovery becomes household recovery. You cannot feed children with a current-account surplus. Recovery must eventually arrive at the kitchen table.
The British left in 1960, but independence was never meant merely to replace foreign colonial masters with domestic political elites. The public treasury belongs to Nigerians. Every naira wasted has an opportunity cost. It may be a classroom not repaired, medicine not purchased, a road left unfinished or a security post left without adequate resources. Changing who controls government without strengthening accountability does not complete the work of independence.
Government is expanding revenue collection and reforming taxation while Nigerians have also absorbed higher tariffs and subsidy reforms. But where is the corresponding social protection and improvement in public services? Too many citizens provide significant portions of their own security, water, electricity, education and healthcare. Government has a legitimate right to collect taxes, but taxation creates obligations in both directions. The citizen pays government. Government must deliver.
Nigeria's middle class is under enormous pressure. The civil servant, teacher, professional and small shop owner confront food, transportation, housing, healthcare and electricity costs that consume larger portions of household income. It would be inaccurate to say literally that no Nigerian middle class remains, but its purchasing power has been severely squeezed. An economy needs a functioning middle class because these households consume, save, invest, employ people and support domestic businesses. When they become poorer, the damage travels through the economy.
We claim to be a free democratic republic, yet Nigeria has repeatedly faced serious disputes over the treatment of peaceful protesters and critics of government. Democracy must protect peaceful disagreement within the law. Citizens must be able to criticise those governing them without political disagreement itself becoming criminalised. Independence is not simply the freedom of government to govern. It is also the freedom of citizens to question government.
Our manufacturing sector faces foreign-exchange pressures, expensive energy, financing constraints and infrastructure deficiencies. When a factory closes, the consequences do not end at its gate. A worker loses a salary. A supplier loses an order. A transporter loses business. A family loses income. Government loses tax revenue. Nigeria cannot consume its way into prosperity. Economic independence ultimately requires producing substantially more of what we consume and creating productive work for our growing population.
Where is the empathy in governance? People can endure difficult reforms when they understand why the sacrifice is necessary, can see where it leads and believe those governing them are sharing the burden. Leadership requires leading by example, not merely asking citizens for patience. Public trust suffers when there is a visible gulf between the austerity demanded from ordinary households and the lifestyle they associate with political office.
Temporary cash transfers and emergency palliatives can help vulnerable Nigerians survive severe shocks. But slapping temporary relief on structural economic failures is like putting a bandage on a deep wound. Palliatives cannot substitute for reliable electricity, secure farmlands, productive employment, functioning schools and hospitals, competitive industries, efficient infrastructure, reduced oil losses and disciplined government expenditure. A bag of rice can relieve today's hunger. It cannot become tomorrow's economic policy.
Finally, symbolic celebrations cannot cover our national agony. The Federal Government cancelled the central Independence Anniversary parade in 2025, although its official announcement did not attribute the cancellation to security threats or low public enthusiasm. We should not invent a reason where government did not provide one. But the deeper question survives regardless of whether a parade holds: what does independence mean if millions of citizens cannot feel its benefits in their ordinary lives?
These are twenty questions and twenty reasons behind our argument that Nigeria needs a change of government in 2027. They are the reasons behind the call to send Tinubu out of the Villa and bring in His Excellency Atiku Abubakar. These are questions Nigeria cannot silence with fireworks, flags or speeches. Our argument is that if Tinubu and the APC remain in power past 2027 and these conditions continue, the economic despair could deepen further, leaving even more young Nigerians dreaming not of building a life at home, but of London, Canada or anywhere they believe offers an escape from hardship.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) does not ask for your vote based on cheap slogans. Our case is that we offer a structured, compassionate and realistic alternative: a government that secures farmlands, protects the naira, invests in human capital and halts the wasteful extravagance of political elites. Nigerians must examine that offer, interrogate it and compare it with the record of those currently in power.
For those making the case for political change, the ballot box is the ultimate democratic weapon. The argument is simple: your PVC is your constitutional instrument for holding Tinubu, the APC and every other political leader accountable.
This October 1st, our message is that Nigerians should not allow ceremonies to conceal hardship. They should examine the record, examine the alternatives and decide what future they want for their country. That is the political case behind the call:
#TINUBUMUSTGO.
Balarabe Rufai
ADC National Youth Leader - Balarabe Rufa'i
1st october, 2026