That’s a 16 point shift left in Fort Bend. Extrapolated statewide that shift would be a 2.5 point win for Talarico.
The problem for Talarico is he needs the demographics that are found in Fort Bend to drive statewide shifts to offset less elastic whites.
The TSU pollster says Talarico’s 18-point lead in Fort Bend would translate into a statewide Talarico lead of 2–3, and Abbott up 3–4, if the same pattern held elsewhere.