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Burnes, baby, Burnes 🔥 Corbin Burnes returns to the mound tonight for the @Dbacks after last pitching June 1st, 2025!

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First comes the homer, then comes the bat flip that takes the frenzy to another level. We bring you the Top 10 Bat Flips that define baseball. #250for250

I'm up for that!

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🏁⚾ FINAL WEEKEND: August Most Wins On Aug. 1, the Basewinner simulation made PHI its #1 team: ⭐ 22.5% probability 📊 +344 BW fair 💰 +1100 market Now: PHI 78.0% 🔥 🌵 AL West: HOU 45.5% / SEA 27.0% / TEX 24.6% 🏆 AL Central: KCR 66.4% / CLE 21.5% / CWS 12.1% ⏳ Four days. Let’s see how it finishes. Built Models. Real Edges. basewinner.com/posts/august-…

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⚾ What a difference six days makes. On Aug. 15, the Phillies were just 10.5% to win the August MLB Most Wins race. Today: 52.5% 📈 Before August, PHI was our favorite play at +1100. The coolest part? The new Basewinner Simulation Center lets us rewind the model and see exactly how the race changed: 🎯 22.5% → 10.5% → 52.5% Same model. Same process. New information. 🔬 August MLB Most Wins: Six Days That Flipped the Simulation basewinner.com/posts/august-…

ICYMI, the Beating the Book 2026 Q3 MLB derivative show is live!!! @beatingthebook & @BaseWinner dive into the various stats in the MLB, including the most reliable over/under umpires. 🎧 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas… 📺 piped.video/EDQODG9kP3I

🚨 A first look at the new Basewinner MLB Simulation Center. We went back to our August 5 MLB Division Value Board to see what's happened — and more importantly, what the Monte Carlo simulations see now. ⚾ 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations 📊 Current August records 🎯 Basewinner fair odds 💰 DraftKings prices 📈 Model vs. market edges 🔮 Projected win distributions The Phillies have gone from our favorite NL East play at -110 to 12-5 with an 89.1% simulation probability. But this isn't a victory lap. It's a first look at the tool we've been building to track the models as the games are actually played. basewinner.com/posts/august-…

Beating The Book: 2026 Q3 #MLB Derivative Stats Show w Mark Borchard @BaseWinner: beating-the-book-with-gill-a… Best/Worst $ ML/RL Teams Most Reliable Over/Under Umps First 5 Innings Best/Worst $ Teams 1st inning Best/Worst SPs

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📊 August Division Winner Value Board — August 11th Update We reran the August schedule 2,000 times and went division-by-division against today's market. ⭐ BEST VALUES AL East: NYY +1200 | BW +740 AL Central: CLE +950 | BW +569 AL West: HOU +265 | BW +228 NL East: PHI +130 | BW -171 🔥 NL Central: MIL +425 | BW +313 NL West: LAD +800 | BW +669 Three that really caught my eye: 🔥 PHI +130 — the model makes them -171 👀 CLE +950 — they're 2-6 in August, yet BW still makes them +569 💣 NYY +1200 — they also showed up as our +3500 BW Bomb in today's overall August market Plus a BW Fade in all six divisions. Same simulations. Different markets. We're not ranking teams. We're pricing probabilities. Full August 11th board 👇 basewinner.com/posts/august-…

📊 August Most Wins Market Update Our opening card is gaining traction: ⭐ PHI +1100 — Best Value 📈 ATL +1200 — Value 👀 TOR +5000 — Watch 🚫 TEX +1000 — Fade 10 days later, we reran August 2,000 times. 🔥 BEST VALUE PHI +800 | BW Fair +336 🎯 MARKET NAILED IT TB +210 | BW Fair +211 💣 BW BOMB NYY +3500 | BW Fair +2310 🚫 BW FADE CHC +475 | BW Fair +1030 And our original TEX fade? Then: +1000 Now: +1900 BW Fair: +4248 Results change. Probabilities change. Prices change. That’s what makes updating this market every day so much fun. Full update 👇 basewinner.com/posts/august-… Coming later today: We take the same simulations division-by-division and hunt for the Best Value + BW Fade in all six August division markets.

📊 August Division Winner Value Board — Post-Trade Deadline Edition The first week of August is complete, so I rebuilt the ratings, updated the standings and reran the remainder of the month 2,000 times. A few things stood out... 📈 Phillies: 69.8% to post the best August record in the NL East (DK: -110 | BW Fair: -231) ⚾ The AL East is essentially a three-team dead heat: • BOS 29.35% • NYY 29.35% • TB 29.30% Yet DraftKings is offering: • BOS +120 • NYY +550 • TB +310 👀 The Dodgers are 0-4...and still project as the most likely team to win the NL West in August. Full division-by-division breakdown with every team's August record, Basewinner probability, fair odds, market odds, Best Value, and BW Fade: basewinner.com/posts/august-…

📊 August Most Wins Market — Post-Trade-Deadline Update This is the update I've been waiting for. The model no longer starts from zero. Every update now combines: ✅ Actual August results ✅ Rebuilt post-trade-deadline component ratings ✅ 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule That gives us an updated probability for every team to finish with the most wins in August. A few takeaways: ⭐ Phillies remain the clear standout (31.15% | Fair +221 | DK +450) ⭐ Yankees move onto the value board (+2200) 📉 One of the biggest stories? The market has caught up. Several teams that looked like strong values before the deadline are now priced much closer to the model, exactly what you'd expect as new information gets incorporated. That's why I rerun the simulations instead of extrapolating or making educated guesses. 🎤 Built Models. Real Edges. Built models. Real edges—that's the Basewinner style. Real wins, fresh sims—the numbers reconcile. Read the full breakdown: basewinner.com/posts/august-…

📊 NEW: August Division Winner Value Board Throughout July we had a lot of fun breaking down the Most Regular Season Wins market with 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations. As that project progressed, I kept coming back to another market DraftKings had posted: Monthly Division Winners. I was tempted to extrapolate from the monthly win probabilities... But those are two different questions that deserve two different simulations. So I coded it up. After rebuilding the latest Basewinner component ratings, I added a Division Winner module to the simulation engine and simulated the entire August schedule 2,000 times. A few teams immediately stood out: ⭐ Phillies (+190) ⭐ Brewers (+245) 👀 Blue Jays (+450) (trade deadline watch) ⭐ Athletics (+500) 🚫 Rangers (+135) The trade deadline is almost here, so this is the pre-deadline board. Once the dust settles, I'll rebuild the ratings, rerun the simulations, and see what changed. 🎤 Built Models. Real Edges. Read the full article: basewinner.com/posts/august-…

📊 August Most Wins Market: Opening Card The August simulations are officially live. Every run starts the same way: ✅ Rebuild the Basewinner component ratings. ✅ Simulate every remaining August game. ✅ Compare 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations against the betting market. This month's Opening Card: ⭐ Star: Phillies (+1100) ⭐ Value: Braves (+1200) 👀 Watch List: Blue Jays (+5000) 💣 Bomb: Athletics (+15000) 🚫 Fade: Rangers (+900) One important note: this board is built before the trade deadline. As soon as the deadline passes, I'll rebuild the ratings with the new rosters, rerun the simulations, and publish an updated Monthly Wins board—plus my first Division Value Board if DraftKings posts those markets again. Built Models. Real Edges. basewinner.com/posts/august-…

Join A Numbers Game with @KelleyBydlon & @MattBrownM2 live from 10a-1p ET! ⛳️Rocket Classic Preview 🏈AFC North Breakdown 🏀Win totals Guests: @NotTheeWillHill @wha1en @BaseWinner 📺 tinyurl.com/4fhy49fc 🔊tinyurl.com/2ptk3kpy & @SIRIUSXM Ch.158