I am looking forward to reading the @AnthropicAI S-1 risk factors. Why won’t the first risk factor have to be: “Our senior management believes that there is a more than 10% chance that AI will kill all humans, which will likely cause our revenues to go to zero and our stock to lose all of its value.”

bullish. the won't raise rates

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says AI will drive the next phase of economic growth calling the surge in high-tech capex “remarkable.” He added that output, productivity and labor markets remain solid with bond and Treasury markets reflecting the same resilience.

Market is overreacting to hyperscale credit spreads widening from my perspective. TL;DR Spot pricing for renting GPU compute materially above contracted rates implies hyperscalers are underearning while operating cash flow acceleration is an underestimated source of funds for AI capex. The fact that spot prices for GPU rentals are at least 2x higher than contracted rates is the missing piece from the discussion about hyperscaler credit, which is the only fundamental factor behind this selloff. Multiple private companies are planning on spending at least 2x more per GPU for compute as contracts roll-off and some have spoken about this publicly.   As contracts roll-off, hyperscale growth rates are going to continue to accelerate as their installed bases of compute reprice higher. Hyperscale operating cash flow growth using a mix of estimates and actuals is modeled to accelerate from 31% in the first quarter of 2026 to 50% in the second quarter. This acceleration should continue for the rest of the year and this is not in estimates which incorrectly model a deceleration in the third quarter from my perspective.   Some math. Consensus estimates are probably for 25-35 gigawatts added by hyperscale and neoclouds in CY28 (using a range as standing up datacenters is hard and a lot of the neos plus labs are still private).  At 60b per gigawatt, that is 1.5 to 2.2 trillion in capex. Consensus estimates for hyperscale/neo operating cash flow is 1.3 to 1.4 trillion. I think this gets revised up materially as contracts reprice and growth accelerates so the 100b to 700b that would hypothetically need to be plugged by debt goes away. And their credit profiles materially improve. Not to mention the said 100b to 700b would be less than 1 turn of incremental leverage on consensus EBITDA estimates. And obviously the Nvidia and Broadcom “credit wrappers” help improve creditworthiness as well given their FCF profiles.   OpenAI, Cursor/Grok and the various Open Source inference clouds have accelerated materially over the last two months per public data and Anthropic continues to grow insanely fast while likely generating FCF. This - along with the fact that spot prices for GPU rentals are so far ahead of contract - are the missing pieces from the BofA chart on hyperscale FCF vs. semiconductor FCF.   Hyperscalers are underearning and anyone who signed a contract for GPU compute in 2024 and 2025 is overearning. Operating cash flow will be enough to fund capex but as contracts reprice and cloud growth continues to accelerate then spreads likely come in as well.  
Would also note that CDS markets are easy to manipulate - was a huge feature of the GFC - short the stock and then buy the CDS. So I would not put attach much signal to CDS. 
Net, net I’m not that concerned about the widening spreads in hyperscale credit. The real risk is that bringing power online and energizing all these GPUs is really hard but we are getting better at this every day.

As it should. 👏🏻 CXMT reaching a $500 Billion valuation on a tiny share of the market with less proven technology and no HBM sure feels artificial. Especially if people think $MU or $SKHY are expensive with massively larger businesses and more capable tech.

The Nvidia GPU shortage is forcing cloud providers to ration capacity and startups to move workloads wherever chips are available. Even Nebius, which has benefited from AWS constraints, is selling out after raising prices. Read more: thein.fo/4gJGXrS

DCA $MU if you want to retired

That's a large after hours order on $NBIS

$BE is partnering with Industrial Development Funding and Oaktree on a $1.7B investment to deploy fuel cells for $NBIS AI cloud infrastructure. The project will provide dedicated behind-the-meter power for AI compute with Morgan Stanley supporting the financing.

$NBIS $CIFR $HUT TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL: One of the biggest Driving Forces in the Future for Jobs, are Data Centers. They are big, strong, bold, and Money Machines for the State in which they are built. Governor Kathy Hochul, for political reasons, has terminated all Data Centers being built, or to be built, in New York State. These Companies are now being sought in Alabama, Florida, Texas, Arizona, and many other States. Both the Taxes and the Jobs amount to LIQUID GOLD! New York State has made a terrible decision. All of this Income, and other Benefits, will be going to Red States, and some Blue, where Data Centers are sought as Cash Cows, with Lower Taxes and Record Setting Jobs. They must pay for their own Water and Power, and any leftover goes back to the State and local Community. Data Centers are tremendous WINS for the States and Communities that are lucky enough to get them. New York should change its Policy, IMMEDIATELY. The Radical Left Dumocrats must not be allowed to cause us to lose Data Centers, AI, and all of this incredible new Technology, to China, and other countries! President DONALD J. TRUMP

$PLTR revenue growth is accelerating and trading at cheap P/E. Year-over-Year Growth TrendsRevenue YoY Growth % (recent quarters): 2024Q1: ~21% 2024Q2: ~27% 2024Q3: ~30% 2024Q4: ~36% 2025Q1: ~39% 2025Q2: ~48% 2025Q3: ~63% 2025Q4: ~70% 2026Q1: ~85%

Open source is the way. Don't let @AnthropicAI and @OpenAI steal. Use $NVDA $PLTR

Alex Karp, $PTLR, called it. @AnthropicAI will steal your IP

Legacy Media types are calling this Alex Karp interview a “crash-out” so that’s your first clue that he is actually saying something extremely insightful. He is articulating what real “AI safety” looks like in the enterprise. Not abstract alignment research or certification by a government-run DMV for AI. Real AI safety for businesses is the ability to control their own data, model weights, and compute — so a frontier lab can’t hoover up their proprietary knowledge and turn it into their next product. As Karp explains, technical customers want “control over their compute, their models, their data stack, and their alpha. They want to know they own the means of production, and it’s not being transferred to someone else.” Don’t think that can happen? Just look at Figma. According to The Information, Anthropic “blindsided” its then-business partner with the launch of Claude Design. Figma’s founder said Anthropic had not been “consistently honest” with them. Anthropic’s chief product officer had even served on Figma’s board until three days before the launch of Claude Design. Figma’s stock has fallen sharply this year while Anthropic’s valuation has surged. This isn’t an isolated example. Anthropic has launched Claude Science, Claude Security, Claude Legal, and of course Claude Code — each expanding into categories previously served by companies building on top of their models. The pattern is consistent: watch where value is being created, then move in directly. Dominate the model layer, then use that position to capture the most lucrative verticals. Dario has argued that open source models powerful enough to compete with Anthropic are “dangerous.” But dangerous to whom? Not to enterprises that want to retain control over their data and workflows. Dangerous to a business model that benefits from customers having few real alternatives at the model layer. As Karp exposes, true enterprise safety isn’t trusting that a lab’s future roadmap won’t include your business. It’s retaining the ability to choose — at the model layer — who gets to see and use your alpha.

"We just can't meet demand" - Karp. Loaded up and bought more!

🚨 Claude just got EXPOSED for sneaky spyware! Anthropic secretly installs spyware when you install Claude Desktop. • Installing Claude Desktop may silently add hidden system components • A “native messaging bridge” gets injected into multiple browsers • Even browsers you don’t use or that aren’t supported • Pre-authorizes extensions that can run in the background • Users are NOT clearly informed about this • Raises serious privacy & security concerns Critics say this looks like “spyware-like behavior,” not normal software If true, this is a massive trust issue for Anthropic (Source: ThatPrivacyGuy)

The Biden administration actively flew illegals into America with no vetting of their violent criminal past into America and paid for their flights via NGOs. This is a war crime. Mayorkas and his buddies orchestrated this and should be on trial for their diabolical deeds.

Claude being nerf'd and agents being exiled from the $200/mo plan are very consistent behavior if Anthropic is going public soon and will have finances/margin intensely scrutinized...

Wow so @DarioAmodei & @AnthropicAI keep lying. When will people learn. We need Elon to build trustworthy AI.