If the Fed raises rates today, I won't be able to buy a home. But if the Fed doesn't raise rates, I still won't be able to buy a home.

"This Congress has dramatically worsened America's fiscal trajectory," per Bloomberg:

The latest headlines that the US Treasury may use the TGA - its checking account - to buy back debt will only fan the flames of the Dollar fall and rise in precious metals. It reinforces the impression in markets that artificial yield caps are coming... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…

This may just be the single greatest tweet of all time #worldcup

OMG KENTUCKY THIS IS MARCH 🤯🤯🤯

But "Exemplar Exposure" changed everything. 🌟When agents saw the 5 highest-rated papers, they didn't just learn—they imitated. In some cases, the variation in estimates collapsed by 80-99%. Partly because of the sycophancy tendency in AI.

33% 33% 33% 33% 33%

Danced with some local Brazilian girls at Carnaval last night and when I told them I was from new york they yelled “ALEX THE LION” at me

The number of posts on my timeline attacking the same clip of Jon Stewart and Oren Cass right now 😂

Silver/gold ratio

Guys, are you looking at steepening global yield curve???

Bitcoin had 5 minutes of acting like a safe haven

Crashing .... *JAPAN 30-YEAR BOND YIELD RISES 26.5 BASIS POINTS TO 3.875%

Whew US 30-year yield. You're not getting a cheaper mortgage

Lowest EM credit risk in more than a decade, which is particularly beneficial to hard FX borrowers across many countries.

Wow!

'26 marks the end of the easing cycle that provided broad support to global asset prices. For the first time in years, central banks are on net expected to tighten in the new year.

for once it would be nice to have a movie where building new things isn’t seen as an evil thing to be stopped

On Argentina. I have been asked my views. I am no expert on Argentina, but here they are. (A very nice exercise in open economy macro…) Exchange rate-based stabilization typically leads to an overvalued exchange rate for some time (even if the underlying cause of inflation, the money-financed deficit, is taken care of). Inflation comes down, but not as fast as the nominal exchange rate is allowed to depreciate. Over time, the overvaluation may slowly go away, and this is indeed happening in Argentina. But as overvaluation lasts, and interest rates remain high, the risk that voters lose patience becomes higher. Or other shocks can come in play, a corruption scandal making the government less popular. And the anticipation that voters will reject the government and the program will come to an end, leads people (domestic or foreign) to anticipate a larger depreciation, and try to move out of pesos into dollars which leads to a run on reserves. This is particularly the case when the economy is already partly dollarized, and people can easily shift from pesos to dollars. I think this is what we see in Argentina. Can lending by the US (or the IMF) solve the issue? Some say it is just a band aid. It is more complex than that. If the Milei program cannot succeed anyway, then it is indeed just money poured down the drain. If, instead, if the Milei program is slowly working, the new funds increase reserves and allow the government to continue without a crisis, leading in turn to more support for Milei in the next election, and allowing the adjustment to continue, it may not. This is the relevant discussion. For more informed opinions, follow @Monica_debolle and @IvanWerning (whom I thank for very useful discussions. opinion still only mine)