$ARWR trades at over $10B today. If ARO-MAPT's Phase 1 reads positive in 2H 2026, the math says it's worth $55-$90B to a strategic acquirer. Not a guess. Four independent methodologies. Same range. Full paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1D5e…

$ARWR slipped NfL into the ARO-MAPT endpoints at RNA Leaders. It's not in the trial registry. It's on the slide. That's a big deal. NfL is the nerve-damage biomarker that got tofersen an accelerated approval in ALS in 2023, even after its Phase 3 missed. FDA advisors voted unanimously that lowering NfL was reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. In Alzheimer's, tau PET and p-tau will likely carry more weight. In PSP, a rare, fast-moving tauopathy with no approved treatment, NfL could be the fast lane. The slides already say "AD and related tauopathies" and "Phase 1/2a and Beyond." No regulator has accepted NfL for a tauopathy yet. If a PSP study with NfL as an endpoint shows up, that's the tofersen playbook. I laid out the early-approval case in The Number Nobody Is Watching bioboyscout.com/p/the-number…

Goldman resumed $ARWR this morning at Neutral, $74. The target blends a $72 standalone value with a $77 "theoretical acquisition value." Only 7% apart, and the acquisition number sits below the stock's own 50-day average. Nobody sells for seven percent. New note bioboyscout.com/p/nobody-sel…

$ARWR has put a drug into human trials roughly every four months for years. Not because RNAi is easy. Every one of them runs the same stations any drug runs. What changes is how many of those stations you have to build yourself. New piece on the machine bioboyscout.com/p/opening-pr…

New paper out: The Seconds. Really enjoyed putting this one together. $ARWR is now in six tissues. Liver, muscle, fat, brain, and eye from a simple shot under the skin. Lung by inhaler. The sixth isn't announced yet, but it's on the trial registry. Closest competitor is in only three. The gap isn't chemistry or patents. It's a few dozen people who have been failing at the same problem together for over twenty years. That's the part nobody can buy. bioboyscout.com/p/the-second…

$ARWR DIMER topline is out and it's good. One molecule, two genes, both silenced in a person. PCSK9 -72%, APOC3 -88% off a single dose. LDL-C -54%, TGs -73%, ApoB -50%. ApoB is the one I'd watch. The lipid drug is the headline. The architecture is the real story. New note. bioboyscout.com/p/dimer-topl…

New paper: The Outpost. Biotech clusters around Boston, SF and San Diego. $ARWR built its scientific core in Wisconsin. That looked like a disadvantage. It may have become a moat. How geography, talent stickiness and 15 years of continuity helped compound an RNAi platform. bioboyscout.com/p/the-outpos…

Three banks published on $ARWR in one week. Different methods, same neighborhood. Half the value in one drug. The entire brain platform inside a bucket labeled "everything else." Oil companies figured this out decades ago. Biotech never did. New note: Undrilled Acreage bioboyscout.com/p/undrilled-…

$NVS $IONS pelacarsen lowered Lp(a) in 8,323 patients this morning and did not reduce cardiovascular events. The drug hit its target. The hypothesis did not. Quick note on what that costs $ARWR, and what it should change about how you read September. bioboyscout.com/p/pelecarsen…

New paper: The Number Nobody Is Watching: The Case for Early Approval Everyone's asking how fast $ARWR's ARO-MAPT could reach patients. CELIA's strongest signal from $BIIB came from the lowest dose. The number that decides this wasn't in the headline. bioboyscout.com/p/the-number…

New note out: The Infusion Chair. $ARWR's second Phase 3 result of the weekend came within ~2 points of the approved antibody. That antibody is 13 IV infusions a year. Zodasiran is 4 shots. bioboyscout.com/p/the-infusi…

$ARWR has the better drug. Better triglyceride numbers. Better consistency across both trials. Four injections a year instead of $IONS's twelve. New note on what Sunday's #ESC2026 SHASTA data actually showed. bioboyscout.com/p/second-wit…

New note: The Adjudicator $ARWR's ESC schedule dropped Sunday. Two decisions inside it weren't Arrowhead's. The market already has the July headline. Munich is about validation, and validation is awarded by people who don't work for the company. ESC chose the stage. ESC chose who tells the field what it means. Inside: why the Month 12 timing is the real test of quarterly dosing, and the Monday presentation nobody is watching. bioboyscout.com/p/the-adjudi…

New paper: The Other September Readout ARO-DIMER-PA reads out the same month as MAPT. APOC3 + PCSK9, one molecule, two genes. JPM's SOTP carries zero for it. Inside: why $ARWR isn't comparing this to one drug, and what the readout actually tests. bioboyscout.com/p/the-other-…

$MRNA had its best day ever: the first successful late-stage mRNA cancer vaccine trial. What repriced was the platform. Engine value doesn't accrue as it's built. It waits, then lands all at once. I wrote about this in The Jordan Premium. bioboyscout.com/p/the-jordan…

Genentech. Regeneron. Alnylam. Real drug-discovery engines show up a few times a generation, and the market prices them late every time. New white paper: four tests for spotting one, and why JPMorgan carries $ARWR's at $1 a share. The Jordan Premium. bioboyscout.com/p/the-jordan…

New white paper: The Keystone. $ARWR's brain readout lands in September. One readout, four questions, answered at once. Why that reprices the whole company, not just the stock. bioboyscout.com/p/the-keysto…