Why a Fed Rate Hike Might Not Crash Bitcoin This Time nitter.net/i/broadcasts/1OGwbnOBv…

This must hit hard if you think CPI is an accurate measure of prices in the economy.

We're actually back in normal rates territory. The issue is that deficits won't be back in normal territory for a long time or ever without financial repression. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

We're early

I asked 100 Harvard students about Bitcoin.... this is NOT what I expected.

Ontario banned athletes from sportsbook ads because kids idolize them. Then they left a loophole for “responsible gambling.” So now sportsbooks can pay GSP and Cole Caufield to tell you to gamble responsibly. Amazing. The house wants you to keep coming back and keep losing. That’s how it makes money. Parlays are high time preference. Bitcoin is low time preference. Skip the bet. Buy bitcoin. Think longer.

Buying and holding bitcoin is selfish. You do it because you want to protect your money, your time, your family, your future. You’re not doing it to save the world. But the downstream effects are pretty interesting. Capital gets allocated more carefully. Dumb projects have a harder time surviving on cheap money. Businesses actually have to create value. Productivity improves. Prices can fall. People get more for less. Bitcoin doesn’t ask people to stop being selfish. It just gives selfishness better incentives and it starts looking a lot like selflessness.

He said it himself in the video: "I'm a contrarian indicator. Just do the exact opposite of me." Then he posted it the week bitcoin bottomed. Now look at what actually took him out. It really wasn't his fears about attention, quantum, core devs, AI capex or wrench attacks. It was leverage. Nobody buying $50 a week with no debt got liquidated in June. They just bought cheaper. Here's the part people miss. Bitcoin is incredible collateral for the lender. It trades 24/7 and gets repriced every second, so when price dips at 3am, they sell your coins and get paid first. For the borrower, that's the worst setup possible. If you're going to borrow, do it against something that isn't marked to market every second. Bitcoin didn't break his thesis. Borrowed money did.

If you've spent 4 years waiting for "the dip," this video is going to hurt. Every DCA'er is in profit. Every one. The people who tried to be clever and buy the bottom? A lot of them are still sitting in cash, waiting. DCA is boring. That's the point. Boring is how you win. Pick an amount. Pick a day. Buy. Repeat. Ignore line bros on youtube. Bitcoin is the first savings tool in history that can't be diluted by someone else's decisions or by its price going up.

When Bitcoin hits $100k again, I won't need to check a price chart. I'll know from @saylor's vibes alone...

We're live with @adamobrien and @q_liketheletter 🎤

Your Bitcoin IRA Is Not a Get-Out-of-Jail-Free Card nitter.net/i/broadcasts/1qKVmyLQa…

The man who ran the SEC's four-year case against the industry, this week, on camera: "Put aside maybe Bitcoin, the rest of the crowd is thousands of tokens." He never sued Bitcoin. He couldn't. There was nobody to serve.

Tuesday the Senate voted 49 to 50 on the rules for the companies that hold people's coins. The bill stalled. By Thursday the CFTC had reportedly sent its own rulebook to the White House for review. In Washington a no vote doesn't stop the rules. It changes who writes them. Bitcoin's rules were published in 2008 and have never needed a vote, a chairman or a review. You can read them tonight.

At 11:20 this morning the Governor of the Bank of Canada speaks in Halifax. On September 16 the Bank wrote that Canadians "can continue to count on price stability." Five days earlier the Bank's own researchers published a table. In a shock-prone world like the one they say we're in, the odds that core inflation runs above 3% more than triple, from 1.1% to 3.7%, and it stays there five quarters instead of three. The promise and the probability were published by the same building, a week apart. Your dollar doesn't get to count on the promise. Only the probability.

In 1970 Congress told your bank to file a report with the Treasury, with your name and Social Security number on it, for any cash transaction over $10,000. The House vote was 302 to 0. $10,000 in 1970 is about $85,000 today. The threshold has never been updated. Nobody had to amend the law to widen the net. Inflation did it for them.

The 30-year Treasury closed above 5.29% on Thursday. Germany, Japan, the UK and Italy are all moving the same way. @AnselLindner's read: the Fed isn't driving this. The long end of the bond market is, and the whole world's long end is moving together. Now ignoring how sexual that last sentence sounded, the point that matters for you: "high yields are a cure for high yields." Rising borrowing costs squeeze companies, companies cut, and the squeeze becomes the recession. He thinks China is already in it, and the rest of us are next. Multi-decade, in his words. If he's half right, the question isn't which central bank blinks first. It's what you're holding while they argue about it.

On August 15, 1971, a Sunday night, the President of the United States went on television and told you what your money was going to be from now on. "I have directed Secretary Connally to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold." Then, to the people watching: "your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today." Temporarily has lasted 55 years and one month. Nobody voted on it. Gold was $35 an ounce that night. Bitcoin was 38 years away. Since that speech the dollar has lost roughly 88 cents of every dollar of purchasing power. The people who wrote the speech called that "laying to rest the bugaboo of what is called devaluation." That sentence is in the transcript too. Every fiat currency you can hold has a sentence like this somewhere in its past: a night when a man in an office decided what it was, and a promise that you wouldn't notice. Bitcoin's supply schedule has no office, no man, and no night. It has a number, and you can check it yourself.

February 15, 2022. The federal government published an order telling Canadian banks, credit unions, insurers, brokers and payment apps to stop dealing with "designated persons." The order names "virtual currency" twice. Section 3 lists who this is addressed to: banks, credit unions, trust companies, securities dealers, and "entities that provide a platform to raise funds or virtual currency through donations." Not one line of it is addressed to a wallet. It can't be. A freeze order is a letter to the people who hold your money for you. If nobody holds it for you, there is nobody to write to. Section 7 is the part to read twice: "no civil proceedings lie against an entity for complying with this Order." The institution that froze the account was granted immunity in advance. You were not. Bitcoin in your own wallet has never needed immunity. There's no one to sue, because no one else can comply.

what was the moment you decided to take your bitcoin off the exchange for the first time?

A House committee advanced a national bitcoin reserve bill this week. @AnselLindner thinks that's the small version of what's coming. His argument, which almost nobody in Bitcoin holds: the dollar doesn't die by printing. It dies by deflation. Credit is money, a credit bubble pops, and when everyone defaults at once "somebody has to be holding the asset." The dollar has already been silver, then gold and silver, then a different weight of gold, then gold alone, then nothing. Every change was a stroke of a pen. So is the next one. You don't need to agree with the ending to see the setup. Whichever death the dollar dies, the people holding the hard asset when the pen moves are the ones who get to negotiate. Everyone else gets a memo.