BLUE ORIGIN RAISES $10B AT $140B VALUATION: WSJ Don't think a $5B mark on Specs is insane here.

Contrary to popular belief, Iran does have incentive for a deal before midterms. The incentive is that they could get a much better deal, better terms, if it happens before.

"The underlying tech is insane" Yes. But we are at least 1-2 years away from mass market potential (maybe longer). Bring in external minority investors. Get a SOTP mark. No brainer. $snap

Yes. Minority specs investors get in line. 7k patents. No puck. Who wants to do the sotp for $snap when they get the $5B (at least) mark on Specs? Is 2.5x ebitda cheap?

If this is incredibly slim than social media owes @evanspiegel an apology. He just yanked a brick out of his pocket. Bullish $SNAP

Security was a breeze at Sofi thanks to $evlv

I think $MCD will be ok.

Recommend Banyan's substack for anyone researching $STLN, the MASSIVE opportunity for the company, and their ideal position within Oncology today. If you want to skip the industry jargon and go straight to the MEAT just read the summary of the CEO quotes from recent conferences. These guys are crushing it, and it will be a much bigger company imho.

$DIS should be down more, imho. "Then, the AI agent is supposed to help execute those tasks in the background, à la haggling over the phone with insurance companies for better deals, unsubscribing from that streaming service you never use, and sifting through the web for discounts."

$STLN Is it a value-based care platform, or a specialty pharma business in disguise? Either way, they cover ~2m lives today vs. opportunity of 100m. Management's last 2 calls (Q2 and at Wells Fargo this month) are some of the most bullish I've listened to for any company. 3x+ in 3yrs does not take crazy math to solve to, especially when you listen to what they're telling you...

Many are saying @petersellis is the wartime leader @Snap needs as @evanspiegel focuses his efforts on @specs.

Core Snapchat was barely mentioned at the Specs event. Specs AI doesn't even exist in/with or need Snapchat. $500mn in burn on Specs shouldered by Snap shareholders with years of negative ROE is totally unsustainable. Specs is going to get seperated or get minority equity infusion. This way the market will no longer penalize Snap equity for Specs spend, and the companies can focus on their respective missions which are quite different. If you analyze core Snapchat (ex Specs) you will likely conclude that the asset is one of the cheapest in the market. Time to take action, Evan. @evanspiegel @IrenicCap

For those keeping $STLN models, help me out - guide is based on no growth in their footprint. They just announced an expansion in their footprint. What does this mean for models? Numbers go up, methinks. Probably wrong, NFA. linkedin.com/posts/starling-…

Just surfacing this one to demonstrate we are not and never were $snap absolutists. We will go long and short and when facts and circumstances change our opinion changes too. And NO - Specs will not be a mass market hit this holiday season. Too expensive and awk form. But here's the bull case from here: 1. FCF/Share is the metric mgmt now focused on. By definition that requires fresh cost and SBC discipline. 16% hc reduction and flat share count already in place. $500mn in opex savings about to flow through. 2. Ads biz stable enough. 9% growth in Q2. Guide implies so decel. But ad checks stable vs Q2. Decent enough. Some progress on ad tech. Only needs 5% growth next year to hit our numbs. 3. Sub biz $1.2B rr, growing 85%. Needs 50% growth next year to hit numbs. 25mn paid subs, still well below penetration threshold of 7-12%. 4. Specs tech is real. 7k+ patents. Real use cases. What's that worth? $META or $MSFT or $AMZN could buy Specs for the patents alone and pay $2B and it would be nothing to them but all the call optionality which could incubate until form factor is mass market. 5. Lets just say Specs is worth $2B to a strategic buyer or partner. That implies $snap 7.5B or $4.5/ share. In this scenario then FCF/share at SNAP goes to over $1/share, easily. So 4.5x FCF on a business still growing revenue mid teens. @evanspiegel Specs are cool. But can't keep spending $500mn a year on them. Bring in a minority investor please and lets make SNAP stock great again. @IrenicCap

Maybe this earlier post is hyperbolic. But Specs potential is real and the applications are very real and the implied value to $snap is negative. Btw go back and look at all my snap tweets - been as big a bear as any of you. But the worm is turning. Sub business 85% yy $1b+ rr and ads stable and 16% HC reduction to cut $500mn opex and SBC offset by buyback. So there’s a lot to like here and if specs can get a minority investor which i think is much more likely after today then game on. Oh and by the way snap could still cut opex by 50% just to get in line with $rddt on cost/employee.

$SNAP presentation recap: - @evanspiegel way more likeable that I expected - the tech is actually cool - needs a few more generations to become consumer ready - desperately needs outside investment to fund it for the next few generations. Only way to see it's full potential

Specs might be the only tech in the world that could fully replace your phone and your life would be better. What's that worth? $snap

Learning applications for Specs are going to insane. Forget tablets or laptops. Every school in America should give their kids some Specs. $snap

Wow - kinda nailed the need for cellular partner except the partner is VZ, not $SPCX. Good, regardless. $SNAP

Based on what we've seen so far from Specs, and given private market valuations, could easily see $SNAP sell 20% minority stake in Specs for $2B. Implication is insanely bullish for SNAP equity.