🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING IN THE STOCK MARKET. The S&P 500 is near all time highs, but beneath the surface, a completely different market is forming. Almost half of S&P 500 stocks now are moving differently from the overall market. Goldman says this kind of divergence looks very similar to the Tech Bubble. The biggest reason is market concentration. The 10 largest stocks now make up around 40% of the S&P 500, and many of them are riding the AI boom. Because these companies are so large, they can keep pushing the entire index higher even when a large part of the market is struggling. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is dealing with rising bond yields, $100+ oil, a stronger dollar and higher borrowing costs. These pressures are hitting companies that are more sensitive to rates, energy costs and the broader economy. So the S&P 500 being near record highs doesn't mean everything underneath is doing well. A small group of massive companies is making the overall market look much stronger than many stocks actually are.

Sep 25, 2026 · 11:10 AM UTC

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Replying to @BullTheoryio
I don’t understand everyone’s obsession with the S&P 500, literally all it tells you is that huge basket as one number
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Dot com had no earnings. AI has earnings and forward earnings that are rock solid. Multimedia production is big business. AI replaces legions of software engineers, artists, advisers... reduces operating costs, radically. Rational4it to cause industrial growth.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
And this comes despite semiconductors having its worst quarter versus Nasdaq 100 in 19 years
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
It’s passive money flowing into the largest caps.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
@grok Do you have the current price per earnings ratio for the NASDAQ and S&P?
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
ANd Oracle's recently revealed financial shenanigans in support of Open AI's massive data farms may start letting some air out of that bubble.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Lol cos trump insider co makes it happen. He needs it to look good while he is in power. The market is not nearly as strong as it appears.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
I certainly would not trust Goldman
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
the headline index level is becoming less useful when leadership is this concentrated. if a handful of mega-caps can keep the S&P near highs while breadth deteriorates underneath, the real question is how long that divergence can persist. concentration isn't necessarily a crash signal, but it definitely makes the index look healthier than the average stock.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
They are wrong to compare it the the internet bust. This is totally different. AI is consuming everything
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
You’re essentially so fucked if you work a regular job Baker firefighter grocery store worker anything unskilled labor even a police officer Some of these jobs do pay in the high-end, but even so you’re never gonna get around inflation. And with the AI boom who knows what’s left
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
They have algos manipulating the market to keep the overall change percentage low. For instance, if NVDIA has a sharp drop, they will manipulate the price of Healthcare stocks higher to cancel out the effect on the overall market. The algos manipulate prices through payment for order flow and internalization. After midterms they'll stop algos and crash the market.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
The non-AI companies suffering large drop downs will likely rise significantly when the bubble bursts, just like they did in the dot-com times (see Berkshire performance following dot-com bubble). The only question is when this will start happening
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
So why are 93% of publicly traded companies blowing out their earnings reports?
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Too big to fail. Forever inflation and bailouts are the norm until we rid ourselves from the shackles /shekels of the satanic system.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Bear Crash => select surviving company productivity spikes via implementation of current leader AI company products => market recovery via emergence of “new” global economy. Ideally, timing/scaling occurs in a way that the assumed correction is not a devastating depression.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
concentration is only dangerous when the big names share a driver. 40% of the index in ten names is fine if the ten are uncorrelated. they aren't right now. most of that weight resolves through the same capex cycle, which means the index has one variable in it and looks like it has 500.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
That divergence between the index and the average stock is the part people keep ignoring. You and @reynosismo_ are the two accounts I most enjoy following
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
The index says "all time high", the median stock says "recession". When 10 names carry 40% of the market, the S&P is basically an AI ETF now.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Interesting
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Your analysis is extremely valuable, and I will continue to follow your updates. You and @Dailystock_ are my favorite accounts to follow because you lay out both scenarios instead of just hyping one side.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Reminds us to trade what we see, not what we believe
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
I keep saying this. It's so underreported. We need a new word for 90% of assets crash, but FAANG doesn't. That is still a crash IMO. Are we just not going to declare recessions anymore b/c NVDA and AAPL are overpriced?
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
The biggest reason is market concentration. The 10 largest stocks now make up around 40% of the S&P 500, and many of them are riding the AI boom.💯
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
the index looks healthy because a handful of giants are carrying it. equal-weight S&P is probably the more honest chart rn
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
at to that many bonds are going parabolic now with a yieldind that surpass basic forcast. it a global sign for a coming crash
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
it’s a AI bubble??
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Half of $SP500 diverging from the index is real. October could go either way — retrograde Saturn favors patience while the split resolves. #SP500
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
The S&P being near record highs can make it feel like everything in the market is doing well. But when a handful of companies are doing most of the lifting, that picture gets a little misleading. I wouldn’t call it a repeat of 2000 just from this. But I’d definitely want to know how healthy the market looks underneath the index. If the S&P keeps climbing while more and more stocks are left behind, that’s something worth paying attention to.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Just pickup potential. Weakness is bullish. Just buy and shut up.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Buying an index feels less diversified when ten names dominate
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Same happening here s group stock hit beyond 52 week high rest of it like gone hell
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