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Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly "I think this is all nonsense." [ You think it's all nonsense? ] "All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want." [ Wow. ] "That's what I think is going on." "Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."
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Replit CEO Amjad Masad says the labs should slow down on their own, or end up criminally liable for their agents hacking Hugging Face, RubyGems and PyPI [ Akash: And what about additional policy around pacing the frontier or agreements like that? ] "I think the labs need to slow down to harden their systems because, and we're happy to help them by the way. They haven't called us yet, but their systems are clearly immature." "If you read the logs from these incidents, like there was no monitoring, there was no kind of safety red button, like, you know, shut down everything." "Should the government do it for them? It's almost like they're asking, hey, like make the decision for us." "The responsible thing for them to do is to pace and slow down because otherwise they're going to be criminally liable for hacking core internet infrastructure. Like they hacked RubyGems, they hacked Hugging Face, they hacked PyPI."
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Brad Gerstner says somebody has to pay the bill on $1.5 trillion a year of AI capex, so OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta have to keep delivering the revenue "When I saw the 10 year go above five and now we're at 510, 512 on the 10 year, that becomes a really big headwind to the equity markets. You have mortgage rates over 7%." "But we got to continue to deliver those revenue numbers out of Anthropic, out of OpenAI, out of Meta because at the end of the day, somebody has to pay the bill on the $1.5 trillion in annual capex that people are investing into the ground, which means consumers and enterprises need to pay for these products."
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Palmer Luckey says in a real shooting war he expects the government to nationalize Anduril's designs and farm them out, and he wants it to [ Clay: Arsenal 1. Are you trying to prove something there with this huge investment in Ohio? ] "Well, with Arsenal 1, we're building this 5 million square foot facility that honestly looks a lot like a car factory." "If we actually end up in a real shooting war and we need 100x capacity, Arsenal is going to make hardly a dent in what we actually need to make. And so I fully anticipate that the government is going to nationalize my designs, farm them out to a whole bunch of other people." "Now, I lean libertarian, but this is a place where the government needs to hold people accountable. They need to make sure that Palmer Luckey cannot trap our stuff inside of our ecosystem."
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Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan recalls Trump demanding he resign on a Thursday, then asking him Monday if he'd like the US government as a shareholder "I set up a meeting, and then Monday 4:00. And so I show up on Monday and then I thank him, he listened to me, I explained the facts. And I never lived in China." "Then he asked me, Lip Bu, you know, Intel had been in a big, bad situation. How are you going to turn around and how long you take it to turn around?" "I told him that it would take two years to turn it around and the changes I need to make. And he was very impressed." "And then he asked me, do you like to have the US government be a shareholder? And I said, I think it's a very good question. I did prepare for it."
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Jerry Tworek says his team's RL work at OpenAI unlocked abilities no scaling law predicted, and one good experiment in any lab could do that again "AI will do everything eventually. The question is, is it this year? Is it next year? Is it in five years?" "There can be someone in the world, somewhere in a lab, just having a good idea and running one good experiment, and that good experiment could suddenly create a very smart system that we didn't foresee before." "What me and my team did at OpenAI with introducing reinforcement learning and scaling in reinforcement learning, bring completely new abilities that no scaling law would be able to predict for you." "The further you get, the scarier those get, because those capabilities are something that we don't really know how to protect and control."
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Vinod Khosla says buying the Seahawks for $9.6 billion is his hedge against AI, because live sports is one of the few things it won't touch [ Host: Why add NFL to that portfolio? Why buy the Seahawks among all the many things you're already doing? ] "First, how often do you get to buy a Super Bowl winning team? Why not? I have great passion for football." "It also is a great hedge to the AI world. I think live events, especially live sports, will not be impacted by AI. It's one of the areas that won't be impacted." [ Host: Ticket prices agree. ]
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Peter Thiel says 20 of Germany's 50 richest people are Gen X or younger, and every one of them inherited it "If you look at the 50 wealthiest people in the US... only 12 are Gen X or younger, people born 1965 or later." "Germany, it's actually more distributed. There are 20 of the 50 people are Gen X or younger of the 50 wealthiest people in Germany." "But here's the difference. In the US, nine out of 12 of those people made their own money. In Germany, all 20 of those inherited it." "Not a single person did something new, made some new money, built a large new scalable company."
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Satya Nadella says software has a marginal cost for the first time, and there's only so much AI subsidy anyone can do "Once the subsidies stop for everybody, this is going to... there's marginal cost to tokens." "There's a certain amount of subsidy anyone can do. But at the end of the day, this all has to be about the return that the user gets." [ Deirdre: When you talk about subsidies, are you saying that an always-on agent is going to be too expensive to sustain? ] "It is going to consume tokens and so there needs to be ultimately a business model." "But ultimately... there are a finite number of business models that have to ultimately account for the fact that software for the first time has marginal cost."
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Mark Zuckerberg says the metaverse is Meta's iPad, the thing Apple set aside for a few years once it saw the phone would be bigger "When we got started I had predicted that the metaverse, this kind of hologram and bringing together the digital and physical worlds would happen before we got really advanced AI" "...we've actually gotten very advanced AI before you can get these holograms in kind of an affordable enough form factor to be ubiquitous." "When Apple was building the iPad and then they realized that they could build the phones, they put the iPad on the shelf for a few years, came back to it, and it ended up being a big thing, but the phone was like much bigger." "I kind of think we had this in mind, too, that we were going to build the metaverse... and then we're going to do AI." "And then it's like, oh man, we can do AI now."
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Kai-Fu Lee says Chinese AI models are cheaper because the companies building them are poor, training on less than 10% of the compute the American giants have "Firstly, the Chinese models are cheaper because the Chinese entrepreneurs and large companies are poor. They couldn't raise the kind of money that OpenAI and Anthropic did... less than 10% of the American giants." "So they tried to train with less than 10% of the compute power. They have to squeeze everything, otherwise they couldn't even do experiments." "Silicon Valley basically shuns that and says, 'That's beneath us. My CEO can raise $10 billion and buy us more, faster computers. Why should I waste time doing this low-level stuff?'" "But the Chinese engineers, nothing's beneath them."
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