Bill Radjewski (aka BlueSCar) | Software guy who dabbles in analytics | patreon.com/collegefootballd…
Cincinnati, OH
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The 2026 Preseason Edition: all the data, all 14 notebooks, both PDF guides.
$49 → buff.ly/mzK6vQW
Already own the 2025 pack? Check your email for a $25 returning-buyer upgrade.
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Week 4 delivered some chaos.
Nevada–Air Force tops the CFBD Game Excitement Index at 9.92, followed by Marshall–Gardner-Webb at 9.18.
Here are the 10 most exciting games from the weekend:
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CFBD Model Pick'em - Week 4 Update
Yours truly took the top spot on the overall leaderboard this week.
Here's how the rest of the Top 10 shook out.
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Here are the sub-category leaders this week.
@Nex_27 took the top spot in SU picks. Reddit user u/CFB_Unaware took the top spot ATS and in MAE. Reddit user u/Ok_Pangolin_2685 took the top spot in MSE.
Congrats to all leaders this week!
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Through Week 4, North Dakota State’s Drew Klein leads all kickers in PAAR at 7.06.
Michigan State’s Liam Boyd and Wisconsin’s Gavin Lahm are right behind him, with several Power 4 kickers clustered near the top.
Here are the top 15 kickers by Points Added Above Replacement:
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Who’s winning in the trenches through Week 4?
This plots opponent-adjusted run blocking against opponent-adjusted run defense across FBS.
➡️ Better blocking
⬆️ Better run defense
↗️ Strong on both sides
The 2026 line-of-scrimmage landscape so far 👇
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Yesterday’s 20-19 loss to Iowa was one of Michigan’s unlikeliest losses of the past 17 seasons.
Michigan finished with an 82.8% postgame win expectancy, making it #4 on the list since 2010.
Here are all 11 losses above 50%:
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Jayden Maiava and Darian Mensah lead the country in Weighted EPA per dropback through Week 4, both at 0.38.
Conner Weigman, C.J. Carr, Julian Sayin and Kamario Taylor are all right behind at 0.32.
The top 15 QBs so far in 2026 👇
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CORE through Week 4 is here.
For the first time this season, the ratings are based entirely on 2026 results, no preseason priors.
Offense → higher is better
Defense → lower is better
Upper-right = above average on both sides
Here’s the FBS landscape:
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New to CORE? It stands for Context & Opponent-Relative Efficiency.
It uses play-level EPA, adjusted for game situation and opponent strength, to rate offense and defense.
How CORE works:
buff.ly/lqCId6N
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Great effort from Dylan Raiola coming in for the injured Dante Moore in Oregon's 41-27 win over USC. He led all players with 23.1 EPA.
I had Oregon with a 78% postgame win expectancy.
Check out the advanced box score for more: buff.ly/5vqmKE9
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Iowa had a 19% postgame win expectancy in their last-second 20-19 victory over Michigan.
Michigan statistically dominated most advanced stats categories, including a 45% to 27% success rate advantage.
More from the advanced box score: buff.ly/k92iZt9
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Michigan leads Iowa 10-7 at half despite dominating statistically. The Wolverines are currently at 75% "Deserve to Win" based on live, in-game advanced metrics.
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CFBD Watchability is delivering so far.
Texas leads Tennessee 13-10 through 3 quarters with a 64% "Deserve to Win" rating based on live game advanced stats.
Louisville and Wake Forest are tied up late in the 3rd. WF is at 79% "Deserve to Win".
Wake up, it's another college football Saturday!
Here's your Saturday slate.
Lots of games worth watching, starting with a big SEC matchup in Texas-Tennessee at noon ET.
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New schedule and game preview pages are now live!
The schedule page shows current week games with direct links to Advanced Box Scores and Game Preview pages: buff.ly/dgrbO7f
Game Previews break down advanced stats side by side: buff.ly/94m5IcM
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Wake up, it's another college football Saturday!
Here's your Saturday slate.
Lots of games worth watching, starting with a big SEC matchup in Texas-Tennessee at noon ET.
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Our first Friday game is in the books with Army's 21-17 victory over Temple.
Per the CFBD Advanced Box Score, Army had a postgame win expectancy of 45% based on the game's advanced stats.
More on the advanced box score page: buff.ly/D8VjTF1
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Only one FBS game last night, so let’s take a closer look.
The revamped CFBD Advanced Box Score goes well beyond the final score with quarter-by-quarter efficiency splits, scoring opportunities, passing-location analysis, havoc, and much more.
🔗 buff.ly/6n63IY4
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