How I bet CFB and what edge I have🏆 CFB Record: 245-175(59%) Edge Position played in HS: LB/Nickel/Safety. Position played in college: LB/RB Majoring in Sports Analytics Same thing with NBA film I have access to College Football film. It is very rare to obtain CFB film but also its very rare for someone to understand technique that is shown on the field. I know positions in and out and especially how to dictate props Read down below🔽

Week 4 CFB Preview 🏈 Texas vs Tennessee (12:00PM) As much as I love Arch Manning as an NFL prospect, he’s been a bit underwhelming to start the 2026 CFB season. Through three games, Arch owns a big-throw-to-turnover-worthy-play ratio of 5-3, and his NFL passer rating currently sits at 96.5. He now faces a tough Jim Knowles defense that has been known to shut down Sarkisian offenses. (Jim Knowles is 2-0 against Sark in his career.) Looking at this matchup specifically, the Tennessee secondary should fare well. The Volunteers rank 33rd defensively in early-down EPA/play and 31st in EPA/pass. Meanwhile, the Longhorns offense ranks 78th in early-down EPA/play and 54th in pass EPA. Look for Arch Manning to be in a ton of known passing downs in this game. It also seems like Hollywood Smothers is going to be out, which means Texas will have to lean heavily on Raleek Brown. (Raleek Brown is averaging just 2.06 YACO this season.) If Texas wants to win this football game, Arch has to navigate pressure and find Cam Coleman against these single-high looks. Overall, this Texas offense is going to have a lot of ups and downs in this matchup. Flip to the other side of the ball, and Faizon Brandon has been super impressive as a true freshman starting quarterback. Through three games, Faizon owns a 122.7 NFL passer rating and an adjusted completion rate of 74.6%. He now faces a tough Will Muschamp defense that ranks 10th in adjusted net EPA/play and 33rd in success rate. There are some weaknesses in this Texas defense, though. The Longhorns secondary ranks 72nd in pass PPA and 69th in pass explosiveness allowed. That’s not ideal against a Josh Heupel offense that ranks top 10 in creating pass explosives. Additionally, against Cover 3 this season, Faizon Brandon owns a 75% success rate with an explosive created on 31.3% of those plays. Don’t be shocked if Mikey Matthews Jr. has a big day in this matchup. As for the Tennessee run game, the Volunteers’ rushing attack should be neutralized. The Longhorns often come out in penny fronts defensively, and that has limited explosives this season. Texas ranks 21st in rush EPA and 19th in early-down EPA/play. If Tennessee wants to pull off the upset, Faizon Brandon is going to need to hit some explosives on the outside. Overall, this game is tough to predict. On one hand, I love this Texas roster. From a matchup perspective, though, Tennessee’s offense should be able to move the football against Will Muschamp’s defense. On the flip side, I don’t trust this Texas offense right now in known passing downs, so it’s hard to lay points with Texas on the road. I wouldn’t be shocked by any outcome in this game, but the home-field factor should play into Tennessee’s hands.Lean: Under and Tennessee (but a hard game to predict) Illinois vs Ohio State (12:00PM) llinois’ defense has been atrocious to start the 2026 season. The Illini rank 114th in EPA/pass, 113th in EPA/rush, and 121st in available yards percentage. They now face a Buckeyes passing offense that ranks 7th in success rate and 13th in EPA. If you give Julian Sayin a clean pocket, he’s going to dissect your defense. Jeremiah Smith also owns a 0.45 TPRR against the Illini’s top three coverages. Flip to the other side of the ball, and Ohio State’s passing defense should be able to neutralize Illinois’ passing game. Matt Patricia’s unit ranks 2nd in defensive passing success rate and 9th in pass PPA allowed. I expect a ton of empty possessions for the Illinois offense in this game. Lean: OSU by 4+ possessions, but I’d stay away from betting this game. Bo Jackson rushing props was something I was intrigued in. (Illinois struggles heavily vs inside zone) UCLA vs Maryland (1:30PM) Typically I like to fade West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast for an early kick. It’s harder for college athletes to adjust quickly to the Eastern time zone. But let’s look at this game from a matchup perspective. Maryland’s passing offense could give this Bruins defense some trouble. Under Clint Trickett this season, the Terps’ passing attack ranks inside the top 30 in both EPA and success rate. Meanwhile, the Bruins rank 136th defensively in pass explosives allowed and 66th in EPA. The strength of this Bruins defense is their front seven, specifically their rush defense. However, I don’t expect Maryland to run the football much in this matchup because of all the injuries at running back. So I expect a heavy dosage of passing from Malik Washington. Washington owns a 51% success rate this season against single-high, which is what the Bruins will operate in this game. Flip to the other side of the ball. The Terps are going to have a tough time stopping the zone-read attack between Nico Iamaleava and Wayne Knight. The Bruins rank 1st offensively in rush EPA and 1st in rushing success rate. From a concept standpoint, Maryland is also better against outside zone than inside zone. Even with the Terps’ rush defense ranking 14th in success rate, I still see the Bruins having success on the ground. Once UCLA establishes the run, they should be able to get the play-action passing attack going as well. Overall, I’d typically lean Maryland at +3 or more, but I don’t know how they contain this Bruins rushing attack. I also have concerns about Maryland’s passing defense.Lean: Malik Washington passing props Olemiss vs Florida (3:30PM) I’ve seen a ton of people on X/Twitter over the past week saying this line doesn’t make any sense. But as someone who watches college football weekly and breaks down games, it does to me. Let me explain. Ole Miss would only be a 1-point favorite on a neutral field against Florida right now. If you adjust for home field and the spot, this number should be Florida -3. There is no such thing as “taxed spots” in college football. Everything sportsbooks adjust for is based on matchups. Enough rambling — let’s dive into the X’s and O’s of this game. Let’s start with the Gators offense. Buster Faulkner has completely transformed this Florida attack. The Gators rank 4th offensively in passing success rate and 14th in rush EPA. Meanwhile, this Rebels defense has been up and down so far in 2026. Ole Miss ranks 71st defensively in success rate and 74th in adjusted net EPA/play. That’s not a recipe for success against this Gators offense. Aaron Philo is going to tear apart this Ole Miss secondary. Look for Vernell Brown or Dallas Wilson to have a massive day in the receiving game. Under Pete Golding, the Rebels run a ton of Cover 3 mixed with Cover 4. Against those coverages this season, Aaron Philo owns a 53.4% success rate with an explosive created on 34.4% of those passes. Even if Ole Miss tries to take away these Florida receivers, I still expect the Gators to have a ton of success moving the football on the ground. Jadan Baugh is averaging a ridiculous 4.64 yards after contact per attempt this season. Overall, I expect this Gators offense to methodically move the football up and down the field. Flip to the other side of the ball. Trinidad Chambliss is easily the best player in college football right now. On the season, he owns a 108.4 NFL passer rating with an adjusted completion rate of 75.6%. He now faces a Gators defense that’s been a bit shaky in 2026. Brad White’s unit ranks 96th in the country from a success-rate standpoint. Even with Florida’s defensive struggles so far, this group still has some talent I like. Edge rushers Emmanuel Oyebadejo and Jayden Woods have been excellent in 2026. If Florida wants to win this game, those edge rushers have to generate pressure. The best way to disrupt Trinidad Chambliss’ rhythm is by forcing him into known passing downs. I’d also monitor the health of Kewan Lacy. Florida ranks 136th defensively in stuff rate and has struggled against inside zone this season. The main rushing concept for this Rebels offense is zone read, so keep an eye on the availability report. From a coverage perspective, Florida likes to operate in Cover 3. Trinidad has dominated Cover 3 throughout his career, and this year specifically he owns a 68.5% success rate against it. Overall, I don’t expect Florida’s defense to have much success in this game, but I do think these edge rushers can get to Chambliss on known passing downs. Overall prediction: I expect this to be a higher-scoring affair that comes down to the wire. I’m picking Florida to win for two reasons. First, this will be Jon Sumrall’s third time facing Trinidad over the past year (Sumrall faced Ole Miss twice last season at Tulane), so he should be prepared to defend him. Second, without a fully healthy Kewan Lacy, the Rebels offense is going to be forced into more known passing downs. Additionally, I trust Buster Faulkner’s play-calling more than John David Baker’s. If Florida wins this game, I really like their chances of making the CFP. Game of the day, in my opinion. Lean: Over/FL Oklahoma vs Georgia (3:30PM) Georgia’s defense owns a 54% success rate against inside zone so far this season, which is the primary rushing concept Oklahoma uses under Ben Arbuckle. This Oklahoma offense is broken in 2026. The Sooners rank 82nd in net EPA/play and 87th in success rate. If you can’t run the football, you’re going to be forced into known passing downs — and that’s where John Mateer has struggled a ton this season. Mateer owns a big-time-throw-to-turnover-worthy-play ratio of 3:4, and his adjusted completion rate sits at just 65.3%. I don’t see him having much success against this Bulldogs defense. Kirby Smart’s unit remains elite. Through three games, Georgia ranks 14th in success rate and 6th in available yards percentage allowed. The coverage unit specifically is among the best in college football. KJ Bolden and Ellis Robinson IV are going to play at the next level. I would be shocked if Oklahoma were able to generate methodical drives in this matchup. Flip to the other side of the ball, and I still have some question marks about this Bulldogs offense. The run game remains elite, but the passing game still lacks a true No. 1 WR. I like Taylen Taylor and Sacovie White-Helton, but those guys are not No. 1 receivers. Additionally, this Oklahoma defense is a top-5 unit in college football. Through three games, Brent Venables’ defense ranks 1st in passing EPA and 2nd in defensive success rate. They will be without star DT David Stone, but they do get linebacker Kip Lewis back from injury. Without a healthy Nate Frazier, I don’t know how efficiently Georgia is going to be able to move the football. I like Chauncey Bowens and Dwight Phillips, but they are not creating explosives on Jayden Jackson and this OU interior. Overall, I do expect this Georgia offense to struggle a bit, but as the game progresses, Stockton’s legs will be the difference in Georgia winning. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Kirby relied more on 12/13 personnel in this game. If an Isaiah Sategna 3.5-receptions line pops up, that’s my favorite way to back an angle in this game. Sategna owns a 0.33 TPRR against single-high this season, which is the primary coverage UGA will use. UGA 27, OU 16 Lean: Under as well Iowa vs Michigan (3:30PM) Michigan owns a 60% success rate against outside zone this season, which is Iowa’s primary rushing concept. With a banged-up Kamari Moulton, I don’t know how much success Iowa is going to have running the football. Michigan’s rush defense has also been elite, ranking 21st in stuff rate and 23rd in rush EPA. Iowa’s offense is going to be in a ton of obvious passing downs in this matchup. Let’s look at the Hawkeyes’ passing game. Hank Brown hasn’t been anything special this season. Take out the Northern Iowa game and he owns just a 91.25 NFL passer rating with a passing grade of 60.1. He now faces a tough Jay Hill defense that is going to play a ton of man coverage. Brown hasn’t fared well against man this season, posting just a 41.2% success rate and a 47.1% completion rate. If Michigan takes away WR Tony Diaz, this Hawkeyes offense will constantly go three-and-out. Flip to the other side of the ball and I expect a heavy dosage of rushing from Michigan. Under Phil Parker, Iowa’s secondary has always been elite. This season the Hawkeyes rank 15th in EPA per pass and 2nd in passing success rate allowed. Underwood has also struggled against Cover 2 and Cover 4, owning just a 45.8% success rate and a 52.2% on-target rate against those coverages. That’s why I think Jason Beck is going to lean heavily on the ground game. I expect a lot of zone-read runs from Bryce Underwood, and I would not be shocked if Savion Hiter got more carries because Jordan Marshall is not 100%.Iowa’s rush defense has been elite to start the 2026 season. Through three games the Hawkeyes rank 2nd in EPA and 1st in success rate. They haven’t faced a rushing offense like Michigan’s yet, though, so I’m curious to see how this front holds up. Overall I expect Michigan’s offense to struggle to move the football, but I could see Hiter hitting some explosives on the ground. I’m picking Michigan to win, but this is going to be a classic Iowa under game. Dom Nichols and John Henry Daley are my favorite edge duo to watch. Buchanan and Hiter lead the team in TPRR vs. Cover 2/Cover 4. Michigan 20 Iowa - 13 Lean Under (Who is scoring points in this game) Utah vs Iowa State (3:30PM) Intriguing Big 12 matchup that’s going to be decided by Iowa State’s rush defense. The Cyclones’ rush defense through three games has been elite, ranking 6th in EPA and 9th in explosives allowed. Jimmy Rogers and Jesse Bobbit have a legitimate unit that has slowed down a lot of good offenses. On the flip side, Iowa State’s offense should be able to run the football against this Utah front. Utah’s rush defense has looked good through three weeks, but look at who the Utes have played. This unit was atrocious last season, and a majority of their best run defenders are no longer on the roster. I understand it’s a new season, but I’m not buying Utah as a top-5 rush defense in the country. Aiden Flora is also averaging a ridiculous 6.46 yards after contact, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke an explosive or two in this matchup. My one worry with the Cyclones’ offense is if they force Jaylon Raynor into obvious passing downs. This offense is going to struggle in those spots. Utah likes to play a ton of man coverage on passing downs, and against man this season Raynor owns just a 33.3% success rate. Overall, I’d be hesitant to lay 7.5 on the road with Utah in this game. The best bet is probably the under, because both teams will bleed clock with their run games. There’s also some rain and wind in the forecast. Don’t sleep on Jimmy Rogers Vanderbilt vs Auburn (4:15PM) Vanderbilt’s defense isn’t going to fare well in this matchup, especially against a fast, up-tempo Alex Golesh offense. The Commodores rank 111th in adjusted net EPA per play and 87th in pass explosives allowed. Byrum Brown is going to tear this secondary apart. Vandy’s defense also ranks 81st in the country in creating a pass rush, per PFF. The weakness of Auburn’s offense is the offensive line, so I expect Byrum to operate in a clean pocket. On the flip side, this is Jared Curtis’s first start in a hostile environment at Jordan-Hare. I could see the young freshman getting overwhelmed in this spot. DJ Durkin’s defense is also going to force Curtis into constant obvious passing downs. I don’t see Curtis lighting up this Auburn defense. Auburn should easily win this game. Good MLP piece. I just don’t know if they cover DD though. Wisconsin vs Penn State (5:00PM) Wisconsin’s defense matches up pretty well against this Nittany Lions offense. The Badgers rank 33rd in adjusted net EPA per play and 27th in defensive rushing success rate through three games. Meanwhile, Penn State’s offense under Taylor Mouser ranks 103rd in adjusted net EPA per play and 75th in offensive rushing success rate. With the loss of WR Koby Howard, I don’t think this Nittany Lions offense can fully take advantage of Wisconsin’s secondary. Howard was averaging a ridiculous 6.49 YPRR through three games. Penn State’s run game isn’t explosive, and Wisconsin’s rush defense is good against man and gap concepts. I expect this Penn State offense to struggle a bit. On the other side of the ball, I expect a heavy dosage of zone read between Abu Sama and Colten Joseph. The strength of Wisconsin’s offense is the run game. I still don’t expect much success from the Badgers in this matchup. Penn State’s defense has been elite against both the pass and the run. Through three games, D’Anton Lynn’s unit ranks 3rd in pass EPA and top 30 in both line yards and stuff rate. If Colten Joseph is forced into obvious passing downs, I expect Lynn to dial up some unique blitzes and get the Badgers off the field. Overall, this should be a lower-scoring game that comes down to Rocco Becht completing passes against Wisconsin’s secondary. If you get DD, I’d lean Wisconsin, but the best way to play this game is probably the under. There’s also some wind in the forecast and potential rain. South Carolina vs Alabama (7:00PM) Dylan Stewart played just 14 snaps last week and didn’t look 100 percent when he was on the field. Without him at full strength, this Gamecocks defense has been mediocre so far in 2026. Through three games, South Carolina ranks 75th in rush EPA and 67th in pass EPA.Meanwhile, this Alabama offense with Keelon Russell at quarterback is one of the best in college football. Through three games, the Crimson Tide rank 14th in adjusted net EPA per play and 10th in success rate. For the first time in the Kalen DeBoer era, Alabama finally has a legitimate run game. The Tide own a 52.5% success rate on the ground this year with 0.17 EPA. If South Carolina cannot stop this rushing attack, Alabama is going to move the ball at will. On the other side of the ball, LaNorris Sellers has regressed as a quarterback this season. He owns a 3-to-5 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio, a 90.6 NFL passer rating, and just a 65.5 passing grade. He also hasn’t faced any elite defenses yet. When I was watching film earlier this week, it was clear his fit in the Kendal Briles offense isn’t working. Now he’ll face an aggressive Kane Wommack defense that is going to put him in known passing downs. Alabama’s defense has been elite against both the pass and the run through three games. Good luck throwing at Dijon Lee Jr. or Zabien Brown on third down.If South Carolina is unable to run the football, I don’t see the Gamecocks having much offensive success. Sellers has had previous success against Bama, but this is a different Alabama defense. The Tide possess a top-three secondary in the nation, and their defensive line is much improved against the run. Overall, if Alabama can control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, they should win this game by double digits. That said, I’d pass on betting it now. Alabama has struggled early in games so far in 2026, and you might get a better live number. I’m passing for now. Oklahoma State vs West Virginia (7:00PM) Both teams rank inside the top 35 in the country in seconds per play, and neither defense is particularly strong. West Virginia’s defense ranks 82nd in pass EPA and 80th in defensive passing success rate. Drew Mestemaker should have a ton of success against this Mountaineer secondary. On the flip side, Oklahoma State’s defense ranks 74th in stuff rate and line yards. I expect Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook to have a lot of success with zone-read concepts in this game. Oklahoma State does have an above-average success rate against inside zone this season, but a lot of those numbers were inflated by Oregon tipping plays. This should be a classic back-and-forth, high-scoring Big 12 game that comes down to whoever has the ball last. From a numbers perspective, I make it WVU -1. From a matchup perspective, though, I think Oklahoma State has all the advantages. Would Lean Over Oregon vs USC (7:30PM) It’s hard to judge this Oregon team with the tipping-plays situation. On one hand, I’m throwing that Oklahoma State tape out the window. On the other, I still have concerns about this Oregon defense Let’s start with the Ducks defense. Through three games, they rank 81st in defensive rushing success rate and 95th in early-down EPA/play. Everyone talks about Lincoln Riley as this pass-heavy guy, but he’s always had a legitimate run game. The Trojans rushing offense ranks 20th in success rate and 22nd in early-down EPA/play this season. Both Waymond Jordan and King Miller are set up to have success. That said, I’m still optimistic about this Oregon defensive line. Coming into the year, it was my No. 1 rated D-line in the country. A lot of those players haven’t lived up to their potential yet, but I’m still holding out hope. If Oregon can force Maiava into third-and-long, this Ducks defense will have a chance. The current strength of Oregon’s defense is the secondary, which ranks 17th in EPA allowed. USC will also be without three wide receivers, including star freshman Trent Mosley. Mosley would’ve made a huge impact because Oregon allows a decent amount of targets through the slot. Look for Jayden Maiava to lean on Mark Bowman and Kaden Dixon Wyatt. Now let's dive into the Duck’s coverage looks. Maiava is going to see a ton of quarters. He owns a 73.1% success rate versus Cover 4 this season, but last year he was at just 51.5% against that look. Overall, I don’t expect the Oregon defense to get many stops. The Ducks pass rush is going to have to generate sacks on obvious passing downs if Oregon wants to win. On the other side of the football, USC’s defensive line is the strength of the unit. Jide Abasiri and Luke Wafle have to have massive games if the Trojans want to win. The weakness of the Oregon offense is the offensive line, specifically the tackles in pass protection. Dante Moore has been pressured on 30.6% of his dropbacks when blitzed this season, and Gary Patterson’s scheme is built around blitzing. To keep up with USC on the scoreboard, the Ducks will need to emphasize a quick passing game. USC’s defense ranks 110th in adjusted net EPA/play and 103rd in success rate, so there will be avenues for explosives. Look for Jamari Johnson or Dakorien Moore to have a massive day. I expect Oregon’s offense to look much better than it did in Weeks 1–2. Dierre Hill Jr. and Jordon Davison should also find some success running man-gap and inside zone. Overall prediction: I wanted to back Oregon when this game was a pick’em earlier in the week, but the number has jumped to a point where I’d pass on a side. Lincoln Riley teams are typically better at home than on the road, and I don’t have faith in either defense getting stops. This game is going to decide who goes to the CFP between these two teams. Oregon feels like the right side, but I still have question marks with their new coordinators. Lean: Over But I’d go the prop angle in this game. Like Jamari Johnson / Mark Bowman props. Johnson averaged 2.8 YPRR versus one-high last season. Bowman should perform well against quarters, which is typically a favorable coverage for tight ends. Bowman is also the best TE prospect since Brock Bowers. My power ratings make this game Oregon -2. Part 2 Of My Preview Should Be In The Comments 🔽 Thanks for reading my Week 4 college football preview ❤️ These usually take me a long time to make, so any feedback is appreciated, as usual. I hope everyone has a great weekend, let’s enjoy this great CFB slate.

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FREE TNF PROP FROM @VicksPicksHQ! 0.5U - Christian McCaffrey (SF) UNDER 60.5 Rush Yards -114 @ CZR, -115 @ 365, -118 @ DK) I’m taking the under on CMC here, mainly because I think there are a lot of ways for this game to go where he doesn’t get to 60 rushing yards. This play is very similar to the Stevenson play from last night. The biggest one is game script. In games last year where the 49ers didn’t win by 7+ points, CMC went under this number in 10 of 12 games, averaging just 53.1 rushing yards. That average even includes the massive 140-yard outlier against a bad Bears run defense. If this game is competitive or the Rams are able to get out in front, I think we see more of CMC’s work come through the passing game rather than him piling up rushing attempts. I’m also not particularly bullish on his rushing ability coming into this season. He averaged just 3.8 YPC last year, and I thought there were some pretty clear signs on film that he had regressed as a runner. Now he gets one of the tougher possible matchups against a Rams defense that I expect to be very good against the run with a dominant front of Myles Garrett, Byron Young, Poona Ford and Kobie Turner, combined with a 49ers offensive line that is weak on the interior and heavily reliant on 38 year old Trent Williams for stability. There’s also a little bit of added uncertainty around CMC’s workload coming into the season. He missed a good amount of camp with what was described as soreness/tightness. It sounds like the 49ers were being pretty intentional with his workload rather than dealing with a major injury, and CMC himself said the time away was “part of the plan” as they ramped him up and then brought him back down to keep him fresh for the season. I’m not going to assume that means a reduced Week 1 workload, but I do think it’s worth noting when we’re betting on a relatively high rushing-yard number. There’s also at least a chance that we see rookie Kaelon Black take some work. We know the 49ers were extremely high on Black coming out of the draft, as they came out and admitted to having him as their No. 2 RB on their board, and Shanahan has talked throughout the offseason about wanting to keep CMC fresh for the long run. I’m not baking a major workload reduction into the projection because Shanahan has said essentially the same thing for the last few years and CMC has continued to handle massive workloads, but it’s clear this team has been searching for an RB2 over the past few years. That gives us another path to the under if Black gets a handful of carries. Ultimately, I don’t need to project a dramatically reduced CMC workload for this to cash. Any one of the tree of a less favorable game script, the Rams to continue playing strong run defense, and CMC to remain around his 2025 efficiency would all set us up in prime position to cash this under. I think all three are very realistic outcomes, which makes 60.5 feel a little too high to me. #PlayerProps #NFL #TNF

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⭐️ Week 2 CFB Bet ⭐️ 🔴 Rutgers +3.5 @ Boston College -117 Novig (1u) I know it may feel gross betting on Rutgers after losing in ugly fashion to UMass but I think this is a great buy low opportunity against a Boston College team that didn’t fare any better in week 1. BC struggled mightily on both sides of the ball until garbage time against what I believe to be an extremely mid Cincinnati team. Rutgers still has 2 of the best playmakers in the country (RB Antwan Raymond and WR KJ Duff) who will easily be the 2 best players on the field and they are also starting AJ Surace at QB this week which should be a major upgrade over Dylan Lonergan who started last week and was abysmal. I still don’t trust the Rutgers defense but I think they can hold their own against this BC offense that is not explosive at all. Their QB is an FCS transfer who really struggled last week and the run game was pretty non-existent against a bad Cincy defense. I think the market is overreacting here as Rutgers was favored in this matchup preseason. ❤️ drop a like if tailing ❤️