I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.

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Pre-market analysis Tuesday 9th June, 2026 1. Market Summary Monday did what it needed to do after Friday’s AI-led puke, but it did not repair the tape. $SPY gapped from Friday’s 737.37 close to 743.36, traded an inside day between 745 and 738, then faded back to 739.22, up only 0.23%. $QQQ did better at +1.56%, but that was largely $SMH doing the heavy lifting with a 5% rebound. That matters. This was not broad risk-on. It was an oversold AI and semi reflex bounce inside a damaged volatility structure. The rally since late February has essentially been an AI trade, and Friday’s sell-off was also an AI trade. Ex-AI, the index is basically unchanged since the war started. So the broad economy did not suddenly break on Friday. The crowded AI complex broke first. Base case: tactical bounce attempt into OPEX, but not a clean low yet. The key pivot is $SPX 7,430. Above that, the market can squeeze back towards 7,450 and then 7,500. Below 7,400, the negative gamma trap remains live. Below 7,350, downside acceleration becomes the trade. 2. Macro analysis US: Friday’s NFP was the macro spark that hit an already stretched AI tape. Payrolls rose 172k in May and unemployment held at 4.3%, which is strong enough to keep the Fed cautious and reduce the odds of any near-term easing. The 10Y yield pushed back towards the mid-4s after the print, and the dollar strengthened, especially against yen around the 160 area. The next hard catalyst is CPI on Wednesday, followed by PPI on Thursday. That makes today a positioning session, not a clean macro clearance session. Fed: the market is moving away from cuts and back towards higher-for-longer risk. A Reuters poll now shows economists expecting the Fed to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75% through the rest of 2026, with the strong jobs print and oil-linked inflation risk doing the damage. Geopolitics and oil: Israel and Iran have paused direct attacks after Trump pushed for a halt, which has helped oil ease from the panic highs. But Brent still remains elevated near the low 90s, so the inflation impulse has not gone away. If oil resumes higher, that pressures CPI expectations and caps equity multiple expansion. Eurozone: inflation is not benign. Euro area May inflation rose to 3.2% from 3.0%, with energy the key pressure point. The ECB is expected to raise the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25% this week. That keeps global policy risk tighter, not looser. China: the May manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 from 52.2, still expansionary but no longer accelerating. That supports the idea that China is not the immediate source of global risk-on leadership today. Japan: Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.8% annualised from 2.1%, mainly on weaker capex. Japan remains vulnerable to oil, yen weakness and imported inflation, so any further Middle East escalation is a direct macro risk for Japanese equities and the yen. Friday was a convergence event, not just one headline. AVGO guidance, hot NFP, war risk, higher yields, dollar strength, oil volatility, tech de-risking and skew repricing all hit at once. 3. Momentum and breadth Breadth is the main reason I am not calling this a clean risk-on reset yet. Nasdaq stocks above the 5-day average are only around 37.5. S&P tech stocks above the 5-day average collapsed to near zero but rebounded to 6.8, which is a brutal internal read even with $QQQ green. $MMTW is only around 46.3 and the McClellan style read remains negative. Russell breadth is better, with $RTW around 53, $R2FI around 55.5 and $R2TH around 57.7, but that is mid-level participation, not a thrust. So the message is: exhaustion bounce possible, but breadth has not confirmed a durable low. This is exactly the kind of tape where the index can rally while many stocks still fail. I want leadership, not laggard dip buying. Semis can bounce hard, but unless breadth expands beyond semis, the tape remains fragile. 4. Volatility Vol has cooled, but the regime has changed. $VIX is back near 18 after spiking above 21, $VVIX has backed off to around 92, and $VX1D is around 16. That confirms fear has faded from Friday’s peak. But this is not the old 13 to 15 $VIX grind regime. Front-end vol is still carrying a war, CPI, Fed and OPEX premium. Put/call data is elevated but not panic. Total put/call is around 0.92 and equity-only is around 0.71. That says hedging demand is present, but we are not at a washout sentiment extreme. Gamma is the big trap. The $SPX flip is just below spot at around 7,430 with. Below spot, there are downside negative GEX nodes. That means rallies can squeeze, but dips can accelerate quickly. This is no longer a passive buy-the-dip tape. Therefore naked short-dated calls are much less attractive unless the first hour confirms breadth expansion. 5. Credit and liquidity Liquidity is not the problem today. SOFR-IORB is sitting around -0.02, so there is no obvious repo stress signal. Credit also is not screaming systemic stress. $HYG/TLT is firm, $HYG itself is choppy but not breaking down, $KRE has stabilised, and regional banks are actually showing decent relative strength in the ETF file. That said, $LQD/HYG remains soft and rates are still restrictive. Credit is not confirming a major risk-off spiral, but it is not strong enough to validate a full risk-on chase either. Read: liquidity backdrop is acceptable, credit is stable enough for a bounce, but positioning and vol structure remain the bigger risk. 6. ETF and Sector rotation ETF snapshot: the market is split. It is not defensive panic, but it is also not broad growth leadership. High RS pockets with MA confirmation: $XTN, $XLV, $RSPH, $XHS, $PEJ and $KRE. That is not a pure AI risk-on leaderboard. It is a weird but useful mix: transports, healthcare, leisure and regional banks. The market is rewarding selective value, healthcare stability and parts of cyclicals, while still giving semis a powerful oversold bounce. Growth and cyclicals were the clear tactical winners, with with $SMH + 5%, $XLK +2.15%, $IGM +1.82%, $RSPT +1.82% and $SPHB +1.85% also bouncing. But the MA condition is still not confirmed for $SMH, $SOXX, $XLK or $QQQ, so this is a rebound, not yet a repaired trend. Defensives: $XLV remains the standout defensive leader with MA confirmation. $XLP is soft, $XLU is weak and $XLRE is lagging on the day. So this is not classic defensive leadership across the board. It is healthcare-specific defensive strength. Cyclicals: $XLE is still constructive and has MA confirmation, but it is not top-tier leadership. $XLF is decent but not clean enough above the longer MA stack. $KRE and $KBE look better than broad financials, which is notable because regional banks are not behaving like credit stress is building. 7. Summary Tactically I'm mildly bullish for a bounce into FOMC and OpEx, but not structurally risk-on yet. The tape can squeeze if $SPX reclaims 7,430 and holds above 7,450. That would favour semis and tech and defined-risk index upside. But below 7,400, the negative gamma structure is still live. Below 7,350, I stop thinking bounce and start thinking downside acceleration. My bias: bounce first, deeper retracement later. Today is a stock selection tape, not a “buy anything” tape.