📋 Week 6/7 Card Adding CFB to the mix now. May have additional plays as the week goes on.. 🏈 NFL ⭐ Panthers +1.5 (-115) | 2u Off a bye, efficiency edge vs. an injury-hit Eagles team back from London. Jaguars -3 (-102) | 1u JAX stayed in London; Houston makes the trip. Broncos +3 (-115) | 1u Full field goal at home. Seattle on a short week after the SF loss. Commanders +7.5 (-112) | 1u Market jumped past 7 after one SF win. Taking the number back. 🎓 CFB Indiana +3.5 (-115) | 1u 22 straight wins, home dog to OSU. Tennessee +7.5 (-115) | 1u 6-pt overreaction, Vols at home. BYU +10 (-112) | 1u 5-0 ATS, at home, getting the key number. Every pick tagged by edge. Every result tracked, wins and losses. 📈

24 hours ago Jeffery Simmons said: "As far as I know, I'm going to be here." Ryan Poles had other plans. The Bears just went and got an All-Pro defensive tackle. Per Tom Pelissero, the price is two first-round picks and a fourth. This is what a 5-2 team with its QB on a rookie deal is supposed to do: • Lost out on Buckner. Didn't blink. • Went and got the best DT on the market instead. • 4 sacks, 6 TFLs and a forced fumble this year, on a 1-6 team. Jeffery Simmons on the interior. Montez Sweat back on the edge with Booker and Kyler Gordon the wildcard. And the first offensive line that gets to see it is Seattle's, Monday night. Poles is all in. 🐻⬇️

Monday night has a twist most people don't know about. When Pete Carroll was out in Seattle, the Seahawks went after two coaches to replace him. One was Mike Macdonald. The other was Ben Johnson. Seattle hired Macdonald. Johnson stayed in Detroit, then took the Bears job a year later. Now Macdonald has a Super Bowl ring and the league's No. 1 yardage defense (233.9 per game). Johnson has the Bears at 5-2 with the No. 3 offense in football (390.7 per game). On Monday night, the coach Seattle hired gets to face the one it didn't.

Jeffery Simmons answered the Bears trade buzz himself yesterday. "I haven't heard from my agent, anything from this organization. As far as I know, I'm going to be here." That isn't a no from Tennessee. It's a player saying nobody has told him anything, which is exactly what you'd expect 13 days before the deadline. Here's what hasn't changed: • The Titans are 1-6 • Simmons signed an extension worth up to $105.9M in June • He has 4 sacks, 6 TFLs and a forced fumble this year • The deadline is Tuesday, Nov. 10 at 3 PM CT The Bears are 5-2 and reportedly calling about difference-makers on the defensive line. Whether it's Simmons or somebody else, Ryan Poles is clearly treating this like a window. Two weeks to find out how wide he thinks it is.

Credit where it's due. Congrats to the Milwaukee Brewers and every Brewers fan out there. 57 years. First World Series title in franchise history. And they did it the hard way: • 19th in payroll • 28th in home runs • 103 wins, the most in baseball for the second straight year • 11-2 in the playoffs, including a run through the two-time defending champion Dodgers Jacob Misiorowski went 5.2 scoreless innings to close it out, and thousands of fans made the 1,300-mile trip to St. Pete to watch it happen. Chicago and Milwaukee will go back to hating each other soon enough. Tonight, that's a well-earned title. 🍺🏆

Ben Johnson's rule for playing time, in his own words today: "Winning performance versus losing performance." He was asked about Jaylon Johnson. He answered by pointing at Daniel Hardy: guys "stepping up in their opportunities, they warrant more playing time... offense, defense, and special teams each and every week." He said the same kind of thing on offense: rookie TE Sam Roush's "rep count is going to go up" with Cole Kmet out for the year. My opinion, not reporting: that's not a shot at one guy. That's the culture. Jaylon has been a Pro Bowl corner here and nobody should write him off. But on this team, the tape decides who plays. The corner room is thin this week. Monday is a big chance for whoever answers the call.

The Bears' pass rush got more crowded this week, not less. • Montez Sweat is back from his 2-game suspension. His words: "I take the responsibility full upon myself." • Daniel Hardy had 1.5 sacks vs New England, and Ben Johnson said today Hardy "certainly warrants a little bit more playing time on defense." • And the Khalil Mack talk isn't going away. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler called Mack a natural Bears fit for "the equivalent of a quality Day 3 pick." Ian Rapoport says the Chargers haven't signaled they're willing to sell yet. Sweat: 2 sacks, 10 pressures in 5 games. Hardy produced when he got his shot. Mack is still a maybe. Deadline is Nov. 10. Seattle is Monday. So who's lining up opposite Sweat on Monday night?

Drake Maye's game-worn jersey is hanging in Caleb Williams' locker. Last Thursday they went at it at Soldier Field and hugged it out after. The Bears got the win. Now the jersey hangs in Caleb's locker. Today on FS1, Chris Broussard said Caleb has the higher ceiling of the two: "Caleb is just more dynamic... and he doesn't turn the ball over." My take: you don't have to pick. Maye is a legit star and this is going to be a fun rivalry for the next decade. But that jersey tells you Caleb knows exactly who he beat. Next up for him: the best defense in the league.

If this is real, it tells you exactly where Ryan Poles thinks this team is. Per Evan Sidery, the Bears called Tennessee about Jeffery Simmons, and the price would likely be a 2027 1st. 5-2. Monday night in Seattle next. And reportedly shopping for the one thing this defense still needs: a guy who wrecks the interior. A 1st is a real price. But when your QB is still on his rookie deal and you're sitting at 5-2, that's exactly when you spend it. My take: I'd make the call twice.

Second straight day, same three names missing. Wednesday at Halas Hall: • RB Kyle Monangai: on the bike during stretch, not on the field in the open period • CB Malik Muhammad (toe): out again • CB Tyrique Stevenson (hamstring): out again The good news: • LB T.J. Edwards back at practice • LB Jack Sanborn back at practice • Montez Sweat back from his 2-game suspension Corner is the spot to watch. If Muhammad and Stevenson can't go, the depth behind Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon is Clark Phillips III and Josh Blackwell, against Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. First official injury report drops Thursday. That's when we find out how real this is. 🐻⬇️

The Bears' last 10 games, tiered. This is my opinion, with records through Week 7: TIER 1: CIRCLE IT • @ SEA (4-3), MNF Monday. Defending champs. • @ BUF (5-1), Saturday Dec. 19 • @ MIN (6-0), Week 18. Could decide the division. TIER 2: DIVISION KNIFE FIGHTS • @ DET (4-2), Thanksgiving • vs GB (4-3), Christmas Day • vs DET (4-2), Jan. 3 (The Bears are 0-2 in the division. These three are the season.) TIER 3: PROVE IT • vs JAX (4-2) TIER 4: DON'T OVERTHINK IT, JUST WIN • vs TB (2-5) • vs NO (2-5) • @ MIA (1-5) The remaining opponents are a combined 36-28. That's a tough closing stretch, but it's in their hands.

Monday's chess match has a math problem in it. Ben Johnson has gone for it on fourth down 17 times this season. That's the most in the NFL, and the Bears converted 10. Mike Macdonald's Seahawks have gone 8 times (4 conversions). Roll Coverage's tendency numbers say the same thing: Johnson goes for it about 26% of the time, Macdonald about 14%. Johnson's offense also leads the league in time of possession at 35:30 per game. Put that together and Seattle's defense could be on the field a long time, with several fourth-and-shorts where Johnson isn't punting. The most aggressive coach in football is going into the building where you can't hear the snap count. Something has to give. (Data: nflverse, Roll Coverage)

The Bears still get to the red zone more than anyone. Now they're finishing again. • 36 red-zone trips, the most in the NFL • With Caleb (Weeks 1, 6, 7): 15 TDs on 17 trips (88%) • Without him (Weeks 2-5): 6 TDs on 19 trips (32%) • Season: 58% TD rate, 22nd, and climbing Now the twist. Seattle allows the fewest red-zone trips in the league, just 2.3 per game. But when teams do get there, the Seahawks give up a TD 75% of the time, 27th in the NFL. Seattle doesn't let you in the door. Caleb hasn't been stopped once he's through it. 🐻⬇️ Data: nflverse, Weeks 1-7

Since Caleb Williams came back, no quarterback in football has been more efficient. EPA per dropback, Weeks 6-7 (min. 50 dropbacks): 1. Caleb Williams +0.32 2. Drake Maye +0.29 3. Geno Smith +0.27 … 9. Sam Darnold +0.07 Two games, 613 passing yards, and the next one is against a Seattle defense that just held Kansas City to 3 points. (Data: nflverse. Only QBs who played both weeks qualify.)

Respect right back, Seattle. Mike Macdonald built a defense that won a Super Bowl and is still 2nd in the NFL in EPA/play allowed through Week 7. Lumen Field on a Monday night might be the toughest road test on the road. This one matters big time for playoff seeding. Ben Johnson's best ideas against Macdonald's best answers, with Caleb in the middle of it. Will be fun. Good luck to you guys too. See you Monday 🐻

The Bears opened Seattle week down three bodies, and two of them play the same position. At Tuesday's walk-through, reporters at Halas Hall didn't see: • RB Kyle Monangai (toe). That's now three straight missed practices, and he hasn't practiced since Week 4. • CB Malik Muhammad II (toe). He left Thursday's Patriots game. • CB Tyrique Stevenson (hip) The Bears also cut CB Nick McCloud to open a roster spot for Zavier Scott. Without Muhammad and Stevenson, the corners on the 53 are Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Clark Phillips III and Josh Blackwell. That's the room facing reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba on Monday night. The good news: T.J. Edwards (hamstring) was back after missing two games, and D'Marco Jackson practiced after being seen in a boot last Thursday. Because it's a Monday game, the first official injury report doesn't come out until Thursday. Tuesday's walk-through wasn't a full practice, so "not seen" isn't the same as "out." Thursday tells us a lot more.

Top offense or top defense? I ran 20 years of NFL play-by-play (2006-2025) to find out. Offense is the one you can count on. • Season to next season, offense EPA/play correlates at .43. Defense: .27 • First half of a season to the second half: .58 vs .34 Offense also wins more in the regular season. • The #1 offense in EPA/play averaged 12.8 wins and made the playoffs 20 out of 20 times • The #1 defense averaged 11.2 wins and made it 17 out of 20 times Rings are basically a tie. • #1 offenses won 2 Super Bowls. #1 defenses won 3, including Seattle last season • Of the last 20 champs, 14 had a top-10 offense and 14 had a top-10 defense My take: build around the QB and the offense, because that's what holds up week to week. An elite defense is how you steal a January. That's why Monday night is fun. Through Week 7, Macdonald's defense is 2nd in the NFL in EPA/play allowed. Caleb and Ben Johnson's offense is 11th, and the Bears are 5-2. The side that holds up versus the champs' calling card. In Seattle.

The Bears were linked to two big names on the trade market. By Tuesday night, both were gone. Quenton Nelson → Seattle, the team Chicago plays Monday night. (Per Schefter and Rapoport.) DeForest Buckner → reportedly back to San Francisco. So here's my updated Bears deadline board. This is opinion, and the deadline is Nov. 10. TIER 1, GO GET IT: Interior defensive line. Buckner was the dream fit, and the need didn't leave with him. TIER 2, THE REUNION: Khalil Mack. Jay Glazer says the Bears already called the Chargers. LA is 0-6 but says it isn't selling. Only about $4M is left on his deal. TIER 3, STILL NEEDED: Tight end depth with Kmet on IR. TIER 4, DON'T TOUCH: The 1st- and 2nd-rounders. This core is young and winning now. Ryan Poles has 13 days. Seattle just went for it. Your move…

One stat to know before you bet Bears-Seahawks: Ben Johnson is 14-3 against the spread in non-division games, per Scott Kacsmar. Add three extra days of rest (Bears played Thursday, Seattle played Sunday night) and Seattle missing its best offensive lineman, and this is the spot where Johnson's teams have cashed.

Dak Prescott has gotten 23.4 expected points handed to him by flags on plays that went nowhere. Jordan Love: 15.9. Jared Goff: 9.2. Caleb Williams: 4.4. That's 33rd in the NFL. The NFC North QB who's getting the fewest gifts from the refs is the one whose team is 5-2.

Caleb Williams' deep ball right now is second to only one QB in the league. On throws 15+ yards downfield, Caleb is completing 19.3 percentage points above expected. Only Joe Burrow (+21.0) is higher. Drake Maye, Josh Allen, Lamar, and Mahomes are all behind him. Remember when people said he couldn't throw with anticipation? Data: nflverse, Weeks 1-7, minimum 20 deep attempts.