My take: “We need to look at Mr. Araghchi’s remarks within a much broader context and as an indication of a new development in the regional equation—particularly given the start of the Saudi-American war against the Houthis and the emergence of a new form of threat to the Iranian regime in the region.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman also reacted to a Reuters report, citing sources, about the possible deployment of between 30,000 and 40,000 Pakistani troops to Saudi Arabia. There is, of course, no definitive confirmation of the presence of these forces, but the report is significant. The spokesman said he hoped the report was not true.
Taken together with reports of the deployment of nearly 9,000 additional American troops, this could be interpreted in Tehran as a clear warning to both the Houthis and Iran. There appears to be an effort underway to contain the Houthi threat and put an end to their attacks on maritime traffic in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Iran views these developments as part of a serious confrontation with its interests in the region.
Tehran has traditionally viewed attacks against its regional allies and proxy groups as an attack on its own interests. This perception can compel Iran to respond and provide comprehensive support to these groups, as was also evident in Mr. Araghchi’s remarks.
Iran is now seeking to protect these regional allies because it understands that, amid the current crisis and escalating tensions with the United States, they are increasingly exposed to attack. At the same time, we cannot rule out the possibility of attacks by Iraqi groups aligned with Iran, including Hashd Shabi forces, in response to what they perceive as threats to Iranian interests. There is already a precedent for attacks on Saudi interests originating from that direction.
If the reports about the deployment of Pakistani troops to Saudi Arabia prove accurate, one possible explanation is that they are intended to reinforce the security of Saudi Arabia’s borders and prepare for potential attacks by Iran-aligned groups.”
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