Four year cycle lows are not an exact science.
Sometimes it’s a little earlier than normal, sometimes a little later.
The idea that the 4 year cycle “failed” despite Bitcoin dropping below the 200W moving average in H2 of the midterm year seems wrong.
The SPX would often bottom in October, but occasionally it would occur earlier (May) and sometimes later (December)
With Bitcoin, the winning strategy has typically been to just DCA in the second half of the midterm year rather than try and time the exact bottom (something I have reiterated multiple times).
The most likely low for BTC is October 2026, based on the 4 year cycle.
Under some circumstances it could happen as early as May.
BTC does not have a monopoly on the four-year cycle.
You can that the S&P 500 has gone through many periods where it bottoms approximately every 4 years.
Major lows tends to occur in early Q4, but in some cases it occasionally happens in May.
October would be favored if we get multiple week-to-month long countertrend rallies that delay things.
May would be favored if the countertrend rallies just last a few days to a couple weeks, and deeper drawdowns occur sooner.
I favor October over May for now, but as an investor we have to be aware that markets can always evolve in ways we do not expect.
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