链上数据破案了:比特币历史上第 5 次触发了“牛市确立”信号。
简单说就是:散户/机构的新买盘成本,正式反超了老选手的持仓成本。
只要新资金(比如 ETF)敢高位接盘,市场的牛市动能就成立了。加上全球有近 20% 的比特币筹码处于“死锁/沉睡”状态,筹码越用越少。
历史规律摆在这,现在就看这波 ETF 资金能不能把行情一口气推上天。🚀
✅ Bull Market Confirmed.
After sharing with you that the end of the bear market was approaching with a signal given on July 11th, we now have the confirmation signal that the momentum has indeed shifted.
This is the 5th occurrence, which gives a bit more credibility to the dynamic Bitcoin is putting in place, though there's always a margin for error, and I prefer to point that out.
This signal happens when the STH cost basis confirms crossing above the active LTH cost basis.
By active LTH, I mean the portion of supply that has moved at least once over the past 7 years.
This way, we exclude the portion of supply that can be considered dormant/immobile.
It's an arbitrary choice, not a perfect one, but it still makes the LTH cost basis more coherent.
Worth noting: we have more than 3.5 million BTC older than 10 years that continue to stay dormant. This portion of supply keeps growing by roughly 8 000 to 30 000 BTC per month on average.
Since 2019, this average has only gone negative once, following the reawakening of an old miner who moved around 100 000 BTC, so this remains a very isolated event.
If this signal were ever to be invalidated, I'll let you know, but for now we're looking at a very positive development for Bitcoin, notably driven by the inflow of ETF liquidity.