Frontier/EM and especially Africa focused economist/strategist ; TED talk on Africa, author Fastest Billion and The Time Travelling Economist @TTTEconomist
London, England
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"How come no one told me about this book before? Published in 2022 .. it is one of the best popular economics books of the last decade, and one of the best books on economic development period. "
🙏 @tylercowen
The Time Travelling Economist marginalrevolution.com/margi…
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As 10 year-bond yield forecasts have risen by more than 50bp over the last 6 weeks, gold forecasts for 1Q27 have not moved at all.
That's a market mis-pricing, which is perhaps being corrected by the spot market today (dropping below $3,900). Forecasters keep lagging the price
Gold steadied near $4,000 an ounce, and was on track for a second monthly loss, as energy-led inflation raised the prospects for a US rate increase before year-end bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The Bank of Uganda got ahead of this inflation jump, with its 225bp rate hike to 12%. They may well expect a further CPI rise to 7% in coming months, but rates will still be a reassuring 500bp above that.
The Annual headline Inflation for the year ending October 2026 is recorded at 5.8%, from the 4.6% recorded in September 2026.
The annual Core inflation for October is at 4.4% from the 3.7% recorded in September 2026.
The highest Inflation was recorded within the Kampala Low income, while the least Inflation was recorded in Mbarara.
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Started this book whose main theme seems to be that it is easier to short the companies that lose from new tech, than correctly guess the winners that make you money from new tech.
Eg canals lose to railways.
Markets this week seem concerned that Google loses to AI
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Charlie Robertson retweeted
🌍☕ As supply strains hit parts of Latin America and Asia, Africa’s coffee exports reached a record 1.18m tonnes in 2025. East Africa now supplies nearly 12% of global exports. 📈 Uganda’s volumes rose 41% in the year to Feb 2026. Africa’s weight in your cup is growing!
stonex.com/en-us/insights/af…
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Charlie Robertson retweeted
A classic chart to counter the wisdom of crowds idea. US Americans are absolutely clueless about how common things are. They think over a quarter of Americans are Native Americans, one in five Americans is transgender, over a quarter of the population are Muslim, one in five households earn over half a million dollars. The right answer to all of these questions is 1%. They build their worldview on totally incorrect assumptions towards reality. Data literacy matters.
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This Egypt rate hike of 100bp follows Uganda's 225bp, both countries that have been popular carry trades and where rate cuts were on the agenda for this year .. until Hormuz
Two central banks that are having to accept a harder market reality
Cairo pays up for the pound.
Today the Central Bank of Egypt raised its overnight deposit rate by 1 point to 20% and its lending rate to 21%. It’s the first hike since March 2024, after 825 basis points of cuts since 2025, while urban inflation was 13.9% in September, core inflation 14.1% and the pound 8.2% weaker over a month.
What the hike is buying
A 20% deposit rate against 13.9% inflation pays savers roughly 6 points above inflation. That’s aimed at foreign money in Treasury bills which had been leaving and non Arab foreign investors were net sellers of Egyptian shares on Wednesday. Egypt’s $8B IMF programme ends on 15 December with a final review this quarter, and the best thing Cairo can bring is a defended pound. Egypt’s budget pays interest on a large stock of local debt, so every point of rates raises the government’s interest bill. Cairo chose a weaker economy and a heavier budget over a weaker currency.
Cairo used three tools in two weeks.
Troops for deposits, by defending Saudi Arabia, assets for dollars with 45% of Banque du Caire sold, and rates for the pound with a surprise 1 point hike.
If the pound holds below 56 through next week, then foreign money is returning to bills and the slide stops, but if the pound keeps sliding past 56, then one hike was not enough, and the market will price a wider currency adjustment before 15 December. Also watch local money if it leaves shares for 20% deposits, then the EGX 30 loses the buyers that held it near 50,000
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Charlie Robertson retweeted
My latest analysis for @BDliveSA:
RONAK GOPALDAS | Why US midterms could become a financial headache for Africa businessday.co.za/opinion/20…
Thanks @CharlieTTEcon @FontehAkum for your insights!
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Charlie Robertson retweeted
Caixin - China’s Population Falls by 3.39 Million, Largest Drop Since 2022 caixinglobal.com/2026-10-27/…
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Charlie Robertson retweeted
A major relief for Mozambique, on top of RMB debt conversation and a small debt-for-development swap. China didn't ask Mo to restructure the bonds. Mo's debt problems may not be over but Beijing did its part to help.
clubofmozambique.com/news/mo…
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Charlie Robertson retweeted
Uganda's central bank warns of speculation as government halves non-essential spending: Uganda has ordered a 50% cut in non-essential government spending as the shilling sinks to its weakest nominal level since 1993. The measures reinforce… dlvr.it/TW3lNx Follow for news
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On Brazil, prompting good replies that 1 in 5 events do happen quite often.
From a Brit’s perspective a 52/48 result is familiar (from Brexit) and also based on a “never happened before”, as UK previously always voted for the status quo in referenda
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The US hasn't formally recognized Somaliland because it doesn't see enough benefits from doing so .. at the moment
#FTAfrica
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When countries want to move up the value-added processing curve, like Indonesia with nickel, they are competing with cash-rich, low-interest rate China, not the expensive West
Striking statistics in the new Copper Factbook on the rise of metal processing in China and collapse in Europe and America (production in Asia was mostly Japan in 1990, and is overwhelmingly China in 2025).
It's gone from a global industry to a national one in four decades:
ALT Two donut graphs showing world refined copper production in 1990 and in 2025. The graphs show production in Europe declined from 32% to 13%, America declined from 39% to 13% while Asia rose from 19% to 62%.
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Did I just hear that Nigeria’s net foreign exchange reserves were just $3bn in 2023? And are now 15 times higher.
Gross reserves were then cited as around $30bn.
This does explain why the naira was allowed to float, and needed to depreciate
#FTAfrica
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The apparent case fatality rate in DRC is around 50%. In Uganda it was 10%. Hopefully with this early monitoring in Kenya, it will be closer to 10%.
Which implies either thousands more unreported cases in DRC, or that many fewer received quick medical treatment, or both
Kenya has confirmed a new Ebola case, bringing the total number of infections to nine, the health ministry said on Tuesday. reuters.com/business/healthc…
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Africa's $3.2 trillion of GDP was generated like this in 2025; 68% by the top 10 economies.
The bottom half of countries accounted for 10%.
(Done this chart previously, but we now have firmer 2025 figures than in April)
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