Prediction Market Volume – Sept 202+(Recap)
🏆 Total: $20.4B Weekly – First $20B+ week in history Beat FIFA World Cup record
Platforms:
- Kalshi: $15.8B (77%)
- Polymarket: $3.6B (~18%)
- Nadex: $481.9M
- Rothera: $272.3M
- Predict fun: ~$120M
- Opinion: ~$120M
Weekend (Sept 26-27):
- Sat: $4B total (Kalshi ~$3B, Poly $770.4M)
- Sun: $4B total (Kalshi ~$3B, Poly $662.4M)
- Gap: Widest of the year (Cryptopolitan)
Trend:
- Sept 21-27: $20.4B 🏆
- Sept 14-20: $19.8B
- June-July (World Cup): Previous record (<$20B)
- Back-to-back $20B+ weeks – first time.
Kalshi Note: $15.8B skewed by multi-leg combo parlays counted at $1 face value, not cents paid Headline volume > actual capital
Key Volume Drivers:
1. NFL/College Football – Regular season kickoff → parlays
2. Fed Sept Decision – Macro contracts
3. Crypto binaries – BTC/ETH intraday turnover
4. Nov 3 Midterm prep – Senate/House control positioning
5. Stock betting – Polymarket: $220M+ across ~31K markets (Allium/Reuters)